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Bush Admin Won't Release Iraq Attack Numbers

Sometimes numbers tell a story better than any amount of words can. But that's only if the public gets to see them.

This chart was just produced by Congress' watchdog, the Government Accountability Office. It shows the number of attacks in Iraq, month by month, based on statistics kept by the military. It was contained in correspondence released today:



You can see a larger version of the chart here. It tells a pretty compelling story -- part of a compelling story. It was produced in December, but it's missing data for the months of September, October and November of this year -- a period of increased violence, according to news reports. What gives?

I called Joseph A. Christoff, the GAO official who produced the document. "I have all [the Pentagon's] data" for those months, he told me. But the military stamped it classified, he said. And despite making weeks of phone calls, he can't convince anyone there to declassify the numbers.

"They give conflicting reasons," Christoff told me. "For some reason, they haven't gotten through their bureaucracy."

News accounts from the period indicate that violence has increased since August, and the rate of U.S. casualties has accelerated. October was said to be particularly bloody.


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In Mr. Bush's world refusing to inform the public means that none of it really happened. Not a new form of behavior for him but increasingly dangerous. It goes deeper than denial. For him, if he chooses there are things that just don't exist. For whatever reasons he go unchallenged.

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I thought the ISG pointed out that the Gov't wasn't counting some catagory of attack? What was that again?

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Right. The Pentagon has released the same categories of figures for years, and now decides the same data is classified for those months around the election.

Just another form of deceit.

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AP: BAGHDAD, Iraq, October 10, 2006 - A fire broke out at an ammunition depot at a U.S. base in southern Baghdad on Tuesday night, setting off a series of explosions from detonating tank and artillery shells that shook buildings miles away. The U.S. military said there were no immediate reports of casualties.

This incident coincides with the start of the information blackout period. I recall "fringe" reporting at the time suggesting the impact of this attack was far more severe. Related?

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You have to use the Rule of Inverse Totalities - or, if Bush says it's raining, believe that it's sunny, and vice-versa. So if Bush & Co. are poo-pooing casualty reports, believe that the blood was running thick and constant, and that if it got out, people would go frigging berserk.

In Bushworld, nothing to see here = you ONLY want to be looking fucking HERE.

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Of course information about those attacks is classified! What would happen if the enemy found out about them?

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The people of this nation, who ostensibly the government answers to, need to be and have a right to be informed. I suspect the election had something to do with the months that data was not provided. The September and October data, which is the most current, would have allowed for voters to gauge the state of things in Iraq. Bush, for political reasons, decided that the data wasn't good for the Republican cause and suppressed it. What oath of office?

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On the other hand, perhaps a more meaningful number, combat-related deaths of US soldiers, is on track to be 10% lower for 2006 than in 2004 or 2005.

It will still be interesting to see the attack stats when they come out. When did the previous such statistics become available? (Is a 3-month delay typical, or new?)

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I claim that deaths are more meaningful than attacks because attacks vary enormously in their size and competence. In 2004 the enemy was able to hold on to cities (e.g., Falluja), and overrun and massacre Iraqi police stations. Now they're not; indeed, they have given up on almost all mass action, and most attacks appear to be the act of 1 to 3-man teams (IEDs, suicide cars or VBIEDs, and snipers). It is not clear to me that 10 such small attacks are 10 times worse (indeed, any worse) than one attack by a 30-man force.

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Why "hold Faluja"? If circumstances are so severe that the insurgents themselves cannot deliver basic services, what's in it for them? Let the puppet US client gov't fail to provide water, electricity, sanitation, reconstruction. Once the phosphorous flew, so did the insurgents.

Strategy shift: Create general mayhem. Multiply apparent numbers by splitting down to micro cells. Spread out. Explode. False flag operations spread uncertainty and chaos and draw in bystanders. Nowhere is safe. Change targets - attack opposing sect civilians, to stimulate chain reaction reprisal violence. Play to the media. Win by not losing, but more importantly creating the prospect of a never-ending escalating spiral violence descent in the Western mind.

So many different story lines can fit with a set of numbers. I've been paying attention (Thanks Josh!) but still have no way of really knowing what's what. Frustrating.

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We should expect nothing else; so long as congress after congress relinquish their reasponsibility and allow presidents to become mini dictators.
When all else fails, break out the Constitution.

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What is particularly shocking even from the data offered is that the majority of the attacks (from the looks of it, about 60%) are on the coalition. Because the civilian casualties are so high, we tend to lose sight of the fact that the coalition is a far more inviting target, but, because they are armed, armored and generally more able to defend themselves, their casualty rate is lower than either Iraqi group. Another factor is that the Iraqis tend to be killed in large groups while the coalition victims trickle in far slower.

But the fact remains that despite all the reports to the contrary, the coalition is the primary target. As other troops leave, the coalition will shrink to basically one member--the US. You can draw your own conclusions from there.

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If you don't have any good news to report then don't report it!!!!!

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Let's argue this from a Wingnut POV:
You can clearly see the downward trend from July - August. Now it's only fair to extrapolate this (lacking recent hard data from such a confused environment), so going forward, we see this trending to 2003 levels in the very near future.

See? Nothing sinister here...

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The worse it gets, the more they will suppress information and skew fact. Until they are stopped.

Will the Dems find a spine in the senate?

Will the press allow the dems to have a spine in the house?

Stay tuned...

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The 'Dems' wish the occupation to continue. They are no less aware of peak energy and the 'need' to control it. Do not imagine that the 'Dems' will rock this boat substantially. They seek, along with the 'elite', a more velvet-gloved hegemony. But the false flags will continue. And the psyops here at home.

Things really are more dire than imagined. MikeSNJ above stated it better than most comments I've read.

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I don't have the reporting resources to confirm this, and the MSM is asleep, but here's the scenario I imagine: Coalition casualties have been down because we're hunkering down into force protection. This is why the insurgents have started kidnapping in addition to killing; they want to draw us out into search missions where we're vulnerable to their attacks.

Kidnapping also may mean that they are confident enough of their own security to actually hold hostages. Or it could mean that they're just taking the hostages to another location for killing.

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the dems are part of the same party - subservient to corporate interests and not in the least concerned about the negative effects of having [and executing] a hegemonic policy. the nss needs to be changed immediately.

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Maybe Bush's handlers don't want to embarass him by the inevitable comparison that will be made by contrasting his statement in October that "Absolutely, we're winning" with stats that show just the opposite.

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George Bush sleeps well at night.

He is not disturbed having starting a long bloody war of aggression justified by non-existent WMDs in Iraq.

He is not disturbed that his war is creating more extremist enemies of the USA in Iraq and coalescing international opinion against the US throughout the muslim and western world.

He is not disturbed that his ill-concieved adventure in IRAQ has been widely and convincingly judged a failure and that no promising solutions exist to make ita success.

He is completely wrapped up in his self-image as a pivotal leader in the fight for freedom in the 21st century, a Churchill figure as it were. He is so completely self-absorbed as a historical figure of consequence that the only options he'll consider must fit within he delusion.

George Bush sleeps well at night. Why wouldn't he? He has no family in Iraq. Ask the famililies with soldiers in Iraq how they're sleeping.

"Double Down" is the new strategy. Add troops to a losing battle to buy time. The strategy is advocated by Kagan, another war-mongering neocon who hasn't been able to absorb the failure of their war-mongering policies. Double Down.

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I more than agree that Iraq is nasty and deadly, but I think it has the potential to end up as a mere side show to the REAL threat.

Seems to me the greater long-term danger is just south of the border and the true nature of that threat is not even mentioned in the public debate so far as I can tell.

For decades our country has winked at illegal Hispanic workers and made money off their sweat. Now we are engaged in smacking them up against the wall in a faux show of force to belatedly try to prove that our laws have teeth.(Which they don't.)

As someone who was raised in the potato, mellon and cotton fields of the southwest working along side these good people (sweating)I can tell you that the vast majority of those I have known are good and decent, humble to a fault, and in general a tremendous asset.

Doing an about face now and violently snatching them off the streets destroys families, many of whom have kids who are US-born and thus citizens. My fear is that we are about to create a NEW batch of terror for ourselves when we alienate these American kids.

It seems that the only answer we can come up with as a country is WAR. War on terrorism, war on drugs, war on poverty, war on...fill in the blank. None of it works.

Even if we don't want to, we have to have some kind of an amnesty and guest worker program. Otherwise, we're going to turn our helpers into our enemies.

And yes, I know it's illegal. And yes, I know it costs us all in welfare and medical services. And all the rest. I don't like it any more than the next guy.

But imagine the consequences of a whole generation of truly alienated American kids with a serious grudge against the government.

In my view, THIS is the elephant in the room. THIS is where the most substantial threat lies. A wall along the border is simply another Maginot Line and will prove to be just about as effective.

This is a large, but still-manageable problem now. Keep blasting away at it instead of coming up with a rational compromise that faces the facts and it will become a monster.

You cannot spackle a wall with a shotgun.

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Well all sounds pretty crazy except if you read the report Justin linked to (the correspondence), you note that the report itself references a graph from the Sept 11 GAO analysis. Thus the graph would only report through September.

I point this out because Justin specifically states that the graph was created in December, when it clearly was not.

There are so many egregious things this administration has done and is doing... we don't need to be making them up.

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