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Today's Must Read
Unlike the old one, he doesn't ask and answer his own questions or speak in abstract riddles -- yet, at least. But who is the new Secretary of Defense?
"A hawk," answers The New York Times. Behold, Robert Gates' philosophy:
His favorite quotation from history, he told reporters traveling with him this week for meetings with allies and commanders in Europe and the Middle East, is from Frederick the Great, the 18th century Prussian monarch and gifted musician: “Negotiations without arms are like music books without instruments.”Or, put another way, it takes military power to create the leverage necessary to make negotiations fruitful.
In application, that means more troops in Iraq, more troops in Afghanistan, and, to make the Iranians come around, more troops and aircraft carriers in the region (until that time, Gates has mused, it's just not worth talking to them).
Here's how that would work in Iraq: the troop buildup is designed as "a source of leverage over the Iraqi prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki" -- the buildup will halt "if Iraq’s Shiite-dominated government does not deliver on promises to send its own troops to Baghdad and not to interfere with operations against Shiite death squads in Baghdad."
But what if it doesn't work? The real test of Gates' influence in the administration -- one that's been fond of tough talk -- "will be whether the United States follows through on this threat if Mr. Maliki does not comply with those promises."





This threat to al-Maliki makes exactly zero sense. If he doesn't do what we want, we will halt the buildup. OK, that might sound like a threat, except that al-Maliki opposes the buildup in the first place. (See e.g. "Maliki: No Fan of the Surge" in Time, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1576543,00.html.)
January 22, 2007 9:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Or in other words, If Maliki doesn't do what we want, we'll do what he wants. Boy that sounds promising.
January 22, 2007 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
As a first test, why can't we give Baghdad to the Iraqi's to clean up; giving them agreed on marching orders . Is the problem we don't trust them with our permanent facilities in Baghdad?
January 22, 2007 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
So, in the worlds of Mr Gates and Frederick the Great, what's the difference between "negotiation" and "coercion"?
January 22, 2007 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Since Maliki, doesn't this mean we'll withdraw our troops and declare lack of cooperation from the Iraqi "government?" Gee, we did all we could.
January 22, 2007 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
It could be a good thing that he sees a strong and capabable military as key to diplomacy, as long as he also recognizes how destructive the current course in Iraq is to our military.
January 22, 2007 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dr. Strangelove is into brinksmanship . . . Say it isn't so. The cattle rancher has never been coy about his stated position of wanting to thermo-glow anyone between him and the black go-go juice. Is there anyone is in the known universe that finds themselves suprised that he hired a known lie spinner and gunslinger.
Perhaps the last confirmation hearing should have lasted a couple of hours more and some Senators should have asked the questions e-mailed to them by the folks from their states.
January 22, 2007 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder what they will tell him his position is tomorrow? Must our government hire only people that believe that weapons are made for diplomacy? sad to think that this is all we have.
but it makes sense if you are trying to control a government by corporation, for weapons mean profits. We have substituted paying countries to help them initiate programs to help their citizens, with weapons that we either use on them, or sell to them
this doesn't seem like an effective trade
January 22, 2007 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
But that quote was probably after Frederick's father had Fred's lover executed in front of his eyes.
January 22, 2007 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
God only knows about Gates, but "interpreting" that quote to mean "more troops in Iran" is, um, unpersuasive.
Obviously, then as now, negotiations work better when you have the *potential* for military action. Not any different, really, than "Speak softly and carry a big stick."
One could just as well argue that miring our forces *deeper* in Iraq *hurts* our negotiation ability, since it makes it even less likely we could take action elsewhere.
January 22, 2007 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Or, put another way, it takes military power to create the leverage necessary to make negotiations fruitful."
So we'll go back to the number of troops we had in Iraq 2 years ago? The target Sadr has told his men to stand down for a month during another Islamic holiday. This is going to work how?
The Germans spent a century building up their resentment against the rest of Europe for perceived slights, lack of respect and supposedly hamstringing their desire to also colonize far off lands. It took 2 world wars to beat the notion out of them that they could gain respect and lebensraum by force of arms. We are not prewar Germany, we are the antithesis of that kind of warmongering. Hell most of our European ancestors came here because they were sick of governments that used them as cannon fodder for imperialistic aims that benefitted no one but the upper and military classes. Prussian warmongers aren't the template we're looking for our leaders to emulate.
If we were going to intimidate the Iraqis they would have knuckled under by now.
January 22, 2007 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is it surprising that a bunch of aristocrats only see human relationships as being between someone holding a stick, and someone getting beaten by it?
January 22, 2007 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
My, my. Richard Perle is now talking about a "Point of no return" regarding Iran. How many carrier groups gets us to that point?
January 22, 2007 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Gates' Doctrine
Carry a Big Stick ..and yell a lot
January 22, 2007 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Seems to me that the buildup is, instead, for leverage to be used in negotiating with IRAN, not Iraq. The real threat of military might is that it will be used--not that it will be withdrawn. Having two carriers in the Perisan Gulf doesn't serve to project any real strength in a battle with insurgents in Iraq, but it does send a strong message to strength to Iran that, in a conventional battle, it's going to get hurt.
January 22, 2007 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
This sounds like the Monty Python routine from the "Pirraha Brothers sketch." First, Doug and Dinsdale threatend to beat up a prospective victim if the victim pays the socalled protection money. Second, they thereaten not to beat the victim up if he doesn't agree to pay the so-called hush money. Finally, they decide they have to threaten to beat up the protection money if he doesn't pay the hush money. This was a break through. Sadly, the brilliant Gates is stuck at stage one of "the operation." I'm not Marxist, but we are at the farce stage. Too bad our military personnel and the people of Iraq are suffering.
January 22, 2007 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry -- proof reading error on post above.
This sounds like the Monty Python routine from the "Pirraha Brothers sketch." First, Doug and Dinsdale threatend to beat up a prospective victim if the victim pays the socalled protection money. Second, they thereaten not to beat the victim up if he doesn't agree to pay the so-called hush money. Finally, they decide they have to threaten to beat up the victim if he doesn't pay the protectionmoney money. This was a break through. Sadly, the brilliant Gates is stuck at stage one of "the operation." I'm not Marxist, but we are at the farce stage. Too bad our military personnel and the people of Iraq are suffering.
January 22, 2007 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good for Gates. He admires Frederick's the Great's ideas. Now if only he and his boss and some generals would emulate him a little more. Wikipedia notes: "Frederick frequently led his military forces personally. In fact, he had six horses shot from under him during battle." I would be nice if a few of the leaders led our forces. Perhaps then the war would look differently to them.
I do recall in the Revolutionary War and the Civil War the generals used to fight with their troops. How many generals now lead in battle? How many have died in Iraq? Gates should be quoting from Ralph the Timid.
January 22, 2007 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can't help but think there is some deeper physiology at work here. Sort of like global warming is the earth running a temperature to fight the virus of human overpopulation.
Figure this; Consider the extent to which so many negative elements in our society, from the military industrial complex to fundamentalist religion have their chips down on this administration. Eventually the political pendulum will swing rather firmly in the opposite direction and like the Texas congressional delegation, they will be out of luck.
As such, I think the Bush adminstration amounts to the body politic taking a large sh!t after a bout of constipation. Of course it's the Iraqis who got sh!t on.
January 22, 2007 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's Iran stupid and it's just a matter of time—12 months at the outside. Read carefully between the lines of this NYT report, the reporting by Sy Hersch in the New Yorker over the past year, many pieces on the op ed of the WSJ, Bill Kristol's pieces in the Weekly Standard, etc. You think we have problems with the Muslims now, just wait. America is about the embark on a Crusade that will be the mother of all stupidities.
January 22, 2007 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
And look where it got Frederick the Great.
January 22, 2007 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
The original editorializing is a stretch enough.
“Negotiations without arms are like music books without instruments.” That’s fine. Makes sense. Then editoralist says...
Or, put another way, it takes military power to create the leverage necessary to make negotiations fruitful. That also makes sense. Without military power, who’s going to listen to you regarding ways to change their country. Nuff said.
Then, you surmise: Here's how that would work in Iraq: the troop buildup is designed as "a source of leverage over the Iraqi prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki" -- the buildup will halt "if Iraq’s Shiite-dominated government does not deliver on promises to send its own troops to Baghdad and not to interfere with operations against Shiite death squads in Baghdad."
Pffftttt................
I think, you’re stringing an original quote, then an expert opinion about 10 steps to far. And I’m a paranoid schitzo planning to vote for Hillary.
Just a thought… You know. Before you write down dumb ideas. Just think them through so you don't sount like. Well a paranoid schitzo.
January 22, 2007 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Frederick the Great did well enough in his own day. He made Prussia a respected Great Power and added to her territory. The big difference between Frederick II (if you don't like titles) and Robert Gates is that the former kept his own counsel and worked for himself. It's the latter who works for a spoiled brat with an idee fixe about empire that's going to spoil any workable idea that comes his way. It's more like working for the last of the Hohenzollerns -- Wilhelm II.
January 22, 2007 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
So that must mean the negotiations with Iran will start soon?
January 22, 2007 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is this some suggestion that Gates is going to finally get rid of "don't ask, don't tell." Or are we still going to field an army where no one can speak a foreign language?
January 22, 2007 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Crust! I just have such a hard time believing that so few people have been able to summarise the lunacy of this escalation as you have. It is so clear that the Shiite factions like their odds in a civil war and that they think our troops are just slowing down the dynamics. As usual Washington is at it again: proposing a solution to the stage of the conflict that has just ended. To take care of the budding insurgency, we needed lots of troops. We put a barebones force in instead. To quell the budding civil strife, we needed to carefully screen the Iraqi recruits to make sure we weren't training sectarian death squads and we needed to reduce our footprint to concentrate on training a national army that could at least secure their national capital. We need to force the national government to act on behalf of the nation, not as an agent of any one sect. We are putting a piddling escalation into effect instead and "threatening" to "punish" the sectarian government if the sectarian government continues to act in a sectarian way - except of course the punishment is exactly what the sectarian government wants in the first place.
It's total madness.
January 22, 2007 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
"a source of leverage" -- that had me screaming with laughter -- yeah, and what army? just what freaking army are these numbskulls planning to use? i was just thinking the other day, BEFORE the reports of the TWENTY-SEVEN american soldiers killed this past weekend, that the iraqis, given the current way the country is operating, could all just turn around and shoot the american standing next to them -- end of story. and then what? we going to escalate again by "selectively" nuking the place? (gotta avoid mussing up the oil, dontcha know).
excuse me while i spit out some more teeth.
January 22, 2007 8:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
..but, but,..Malaki doesnt WANT us there. Ithink Mr Kiel is misunderstanding the logical follow on to Mr Gates philosophical premise. The logical conclusion ISNT that we will STOP the 'surge'. It is that we have the potential and the will to militarily threaten Malaki's MILITARY assets,ie: the Madi Army. it's a terribly reckless approach , especially given that our logistical vulnerabilities are achingly clear, ie: if we attack Sadr we will subject ourselves to not only shiite guerilla attacks on our supply line, but also attacks BY THE GOVERNMENT ITSELF !! All is madness.
January 23, 2007 2:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
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G'night
January 10, 2008 6:59 AM | Reply | Permalink