Paul Kiel January 23, 2007, 9:06 AM

The Washington Post this morning offers an excellent overview of Democratic prospects for legislation on global warming.

House Speaker Pelosi is pushing hard on the issue, creating a special committee to handle it. Trouble is, that committee tramples on Rep. John Dingell’s (D-MI) turf, who heads up the Energy and Commerce Committee, a strong-arm move that even has Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) comparing her tactics to “the way the Republicans did it.”

But Pelosi wants to get out front of the issue, something the slow-moving Dingell (the Post points out that “environmentalists dubbed him ‘Tailpipe Johnny’ during the acid-rain debate” in the late 80’s) won’t do. Dingell favors a more slow roll approach, holding hearings to “investigate the problem, if in fact it is a problem, and what it might cost to try to address it.” And Waxman, who favors very tough emission restrictions, but doesn’t think such a bill would have a prayer of passing in this Congress, will spend his time holding hearings on his oversight committee to “expose GOP intransigence” on the issue.

But there’s a third camp — the middle of the road camp that wants something that Bush might actually sign. Trouble is, legislators like Waxman who want strong action aren’t likely to support legislation they view as weak.

Meanwhile, big coal, big oil, and other industry power players, aren’t too worried:

Industry lobbyists say they expect to endure a lot of unpleasant climate hearings during this Congress, but they are not too worried about draconian legislation. They do not think the House or the Senate can pass anything too stringent, much less override a Bush veto. And they say their focus groups show that the public’s eagerness to do something about global warming droops after hearing warnings of serious economic consequences.

With trillions of dollars at stake, it is reasonable to expect industry-funded ads to raise those alarms, in the vein of the “Harry and Louise” spots that helped sink President Bill Clinton’s health-care plans.

“If you’re a Democrat in a moderate district, this is not the kind of vote you want to take,” said Myron Ebell, director of global-warming policy for the Competitive Enterprise Institute, an industry-funded think tank. “I think Democrats are really going to disappoint the enviros over the next two years, because all they’re going to do is talk.”

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