Today’s Must ReadWhat is the administration up to with Iran? Craig Unger, reporting on the neocons’ saber rattling in Vanity Fair, provides two alternatives.
The first, courtesy of frequent TPMmuckraker subject and conservative uber-strategist, Grover Norquist:
“[The president’s neoconservative advisers] are effectively saying, ‘Invade Iran. Then everyone will see how smart we are.’”
The signs for this are numerous, Unger reports, from former CIA officer Philip Giraldi’s comment to him that “I’ve heard from sources at the Pentagon that their impression is that the White House has made a decision that war is going to happen,” to President Bush’s order that the U.S. Strategic Command (StratCom) “draw up plans for a massive strike against Iran.”
On the other hand, Unger points out, the U.S. may just be trying to show its strength in an attempt to contain Iran:
Gary Sick [an Iran specialist with the N.S.C. under Presidents Ford, Reagan, and Carter] is slightly more optimistic that the Bush administration’s Iran strategy entails more than brute force. “What has happened is that the United States, in installing a Shiite government in Iraq, has really upset the balance of power [in the Middle East],” Sick says. “Along with our Sunni allies—Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt—[the administration is] terribly concerned about Iran emerging as the new colossus. Having created this problem, the U.S. is now in effect using it as a means of uniting forces who are sympathetic [to us].”
“The Bush White House has already built the fire,” Unger concludes. ” Whether it will light the match remains to be seen.”