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The New York Times delivers the first major report on the surge's progress this morning, a painstaking effort involving statistics and on the ground reports. The verdict?

American casualties are down in Iraq's provinces, but way up in Baghdad.
Sectarian killings are down, but increased use of car bombs has kept the civilian death toll high -- and anyway the beheadings seem to be surging again.
And as the U.S. moves to confront insurgents, the groups seem to be fracturing, making the fight increasingly confusing.

Or as an American private in the First Battalion, Fifth Cavalry puts it:

“The insurgents, they see what we’re doing and we see what they’re doing. Then we get ahead, then they figure out what we’ve done and they get ahead.

“It’s like a game of cat and mouse. It’s just a really, really smart mouse.”

Now, remember that the whole logic for the surge was to provide stability in Baghdad so that the government could have some breathing room. But as the Times makes clear, there's nothing mixed about the political progress: there's been none.

Meanwhile, Muqtada al-Sadr seems to have ended whatever semblance of cooperation he'd offered as the U.S. tried to stabilize Baghdad. Earlier, his Mahdi Army had stood down on his orders as troops entered Sadr City. But there can be no doubt -- that time is over.

How better to sum up the situation than this: the Iraqi government was chronically undecided on whether to proclaim April 9th, the day Baghdad fell to the U.S., a national holiday. But, in the end, the holiday was forced on them:

Security remained so tenuous in the capital on the eve of the fourth anniversary of the U.S. capture of Baghdad that Iraq's military declared a 24-hour ban on all vehicles in the capital from 5 a.m. Monday. The government quickly reinstated Monday as a holiday, just a day after it had decreed that April 9 no longer would be a day off.

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All right here is the 64 billion dollar question??

Did the Iraqi Army show up in the strengths that they promised. As you all remember it was said that the Iraqi's were supposed to take the lead role in this with about 10 times the troops as the US. WEll did they show or is it an empty promise?

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Um, no, they did not show up in the numbers promised, and they are not taking the lead. And even the Iraqi units that have shown up only have about 75% of their troops reporting for duty.

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Unfortunately, as usual, the fact that large parts of Iraq are now under Sharia law, which is the precise opposite of democratic law, is not getting the attention it deserves.

How many oceans of blood and treasure must be spilled for the sake of a pro-Hizbollah, pro-extremist-Iranian, anti-American, anti-democratic, anti-Israeli, Shiite fundamentalist republic?

How is the (inadvertent) installing and maintaining of a fundamentalist Islamic republic a just response to the horrific attacks of 9/11?


[Keywords: Iraq, Islamic fundamentalists, Islamic fundamentalism, Shiite fundamentalists, Al Sadr, Al-Maliki, Al-Hakim, Bayan Jabr, Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, SCIRI, Al Dawa, Death Squads]

Iraq: Bush's Islamic Republic
By Peter W. Galbraith
NYRB, Volume 52, Number 13 · August 11, 2005
[snip]

Real power in Shiite Iraq rests, however, with two religious parties: Abdel Aziz al-Hakim's Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and the Dawa ("Call," in English) of Iraq's Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari. Of the two, SCIRI is the more pro-Iranian. Both parties have military wings, and SCIRI's Badr Corps has grown significantly from the five thousand fighters that harassed Saddam's regime from Iran in the decades before the war; it now works closely with Iraq's Shiite interior minister, until recently the corps' commander, to provide security and fight Sunni Arab insurgents.

SCIRI and Dawa want Iraq to be an Islamic state. They propose to make Islam the principal source of law, which most immediately would affect the status of women. For Muslim women, religious law—rather than Iraq's relatively progressive civil code—would govern personal status, including matters relating to marriage, divorce, property, and child custody. A Dawa draft for the Iraqi constitution would limit religious freedom for non-Muslims, and apparently deny such freedom altogether to peoples not "of the book," such as the Yezidis (a significant minority in Kurdistan), Zoroastrians, and Bahais.

This program is not just theoretical. Since Saddam's fall, Shiite religious parties have had de facto control over Iraq's southern cities. There Iranian-style religious police enforce a conservative Islamic code, including dress codes and bans on alcohol and other non-Islamic behavior. In most cases, the religious authorities govern—and legislate—without authority from Baghdad, and certainly without any reference to the freedoms incorporated in Iraq's American-written interim constitution—the Transitional Administrative Law (TAL).

Dawa and SCIRI are not just promoting an Iranian-style political system —they are also directly promoting Iranian interests.

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And this will continue until Bush hands it off to someone else.

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Randy: Did the Iraqi Army show up in the strengths that they promised.

Why the hell would Iraqis expose themselves to the dangers involved, when they can get the US to do the ethnic cleansing ?

After over twenty years of persecution, why the hell would the fundamentalist Shi'ites suddenly espouse Jesus or Gandhi-like virtures and desire to live side by side with the Sunnis?

To think that the Iraqis will be exposed to danger instead of Americans is sheer folly and demonstrates a total lack of understanding of the situation.

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Bush has found his general Grant. Failure is not an option, and casualties are no object. Watch casualty numbers surge as our troops take more exposed positions to police the civil war.
http://icasualties.org/oif/

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Why would the iraqis show up? this is our war and occupation not theirs.

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We've also traded the waving purple finger for numbers written on Iraqi necks in indelible ink. This, to I.D. the neighborhood the individual resides in. I saw some pictures in Time Magazine of soldiers in a home, writing on a man's neck, that turned my stomach.

We are an occupying force. I don't care what Bush yammers on about, we have made our enemies of the Iraqi people and the only way is out.

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"All right here is the 64 billion dollar question?? Did the Iraqi Army show up in the strengths that they promised."
No offense, but this really isn't the 64 billion dollar question. The surge -- with or without Iraqi participation -- was not intended to achieve a military solution, which just about everyone, including in particular Gen. Petraeus, agrees is not a possibility. Instead, the surge was intended to provide a "breathing space" in which the political negotiations that just about everyone, including in particular Gen. Petraeus, see as the only possibility of a better outcome.
So the bottom line is that U.S. soldiers continue to die -- largely without the Iraqi help that was promised, but that's almost a side issue, and maybe even a good thing, given how compromised those forces are -- for no real purpose, because there is no progress on the political front.
This point is getting lost in the back and forth over whether Bagdhad is getting less violent or not, which is significant, but secondary.

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Hey litigatormom, I wonder if we have accidentally swapped kids. I swear I have litigatorkids. Any thoughts? Where were you in the late 90s?

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Not only have Iraqi troops not shown up in the numbers promised for the surge, they have not taken the lead as promised. In March, 81 US servicemen were killed, compared with only 44 Iraqi troops. If the Iraqis were taking the lead, those numbers would be reversed.

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All this 'surge" ploy does is keep everyone focused away from the key issue: that Bush and Co. are NOT LEAVING the Middle East.
Remember all the criticism about a " a failed exit strategy"? It wasn't failed, it was non-existant, because there was no plan for leaving.
There are no "benchmarks" because there is no plan for leaving.

As outlined and planned in The National Security Strategy of the United States of America. " the United States will require bases and stations within and beyond Western Europe and Northeast Asia, as well as temporary access arrangements for the long-distance deployment of U.S. forces."
Remember the Project for a New American Century (PNAC). ? The National Security Strategy is the same thing.
Entire document is worth pouring over.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss.html
Rove and the Justice Dept. are focused on the planned internal changes of America, doing by law what they cannot do politically, and Cheney, Wolfoitz, Rumsfield ( yes, he is still around) are focusing on the global part of the plan. )
Good overview also at
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article2326.htm

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All this 'surge" ploy does is keep everyone focused away from the key issue: that Bush and Co. are NOT LEAVING the Middle East.
Remember all the criticism about a " a failed exit strategy"? It wasn't failed, it was non-existant, because there was no plan for leaving.
There are no "benchmarks" because there is no plan for leaving.

As outlined and planned in The National Security Strategy of the United States of America. " the United States will require bases and stations within and beyond Western Europe and Northeast Asia, as well as temporary access arrangements for the long-distance deployment of U.S. forces."
Remember the Project for a New American Century (PNAC). ? The National Security Strategy is the same thing.
Entire document is worth pouring over.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss.html

Rove and the Justice Dept. are focused on the long planned internal changes of America, doing by law what they cannot do politically, and Cheney, Wolfoitz, Rumsfield ( yes, he is still around) and etc. are focusing on the global part of the plan. )
Good overview also at
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article2326.htm

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Why are we trying to evaluate the success of the surge. Based on analysis I read here before the surge, the surge was suppose to give them enough troops to go head to head with Muqtada al-Sadr' militia.

According to my reading of the Yahoo headlines the last few day. We finally pushed hard enough (bombing his emplacements) that he cut loose the dogs on Sunday. We are less the 24hr's into the "Surge" war

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whidbeygrl: Bush and Co. are NOT LEAVING the Middle East

Wrong!!

What Bush and Co. and what millions of Iraqis want, both Sunni and Shia, are precisely the opposite.

Bush and Co. will be expulsed from Iraq.

Iraq will **never** be a true ally to the USA which will also recognize Israel.

This is just a matter of time.

Al-Maliki (Al-Dawa), Al-Hakim (Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq), et al did NOT work for over the last TWO DECADES so that Iraq could become a vassal state of the USA.

No!

Al-Maliki (Al-Dawa), Al-Hakim (Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq), et al have WORKED for over the last TWO DECADES so that Iraq could become a Shiite fundamentalist republic.

Al-Dawa has been working hand-in-hand with Hizbollah for over twenty years.

They are using the US to do their dirty work.

(Remember that over twenty years ago, Hizbollah took hostages in order to release the Kuwait 17, Al-Dawa members, who had killed Americans.)

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It seems to me the only reason we are still IN Iraq is to continue the billion-dollar no-bid contracts.
Everything else is just fluff.
Bush's Texas bubbas and the terrorists are reaping the only benefit from this war, (wait until you all see what gas prices do this summer) AND the insurgents seem to be having no trouble recruiting fresh suicide soldiers, while we can no longer convince young Americans they should "take the money" and risk their lives for this not-so-noble cause.

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whidbeygrl says: All this 'surge" ploy does is keep everyone focused away from the key issue: that Bush and Co. are NOT LEAVING the Middle East.

No, that's not all it does. It also gives the RNC an opportunity to let some of their rubber-stampers suddenly grow a backbone and "with heavy heart" distance themselves from Bush before the '08 elections.

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The conditions for our troops are getting worse by the day as well. I was talking to my close friend, a Tech Sergeant who is stationed here at MacDill AFB (home of CentCom). He just got back from a tour in Iraq, and I was asking him about a story I was reading about conditions for female soldiers. He said it is so bad for women, they are not allowed to walk on base alone. EVER. I asked him about incidents of rape, and he said it is not just women who are being raped. In his base, there was an incident where a man was raped by three other men in the showers. It sounded like a story out of a prison movie. He said, in general, the guys are going crazy from all the stress, and not having women or even adult magazines around.

He said they're allowing more and more questionable people in so they can meet recruitment goals, and it shows. He said very few of the new troops coming in are qualified.

He runs supply convoys from Kuwait into Iraq, and he said they came under attack in all but one convoy. He said during one attack, one US truck up front was destroyed. They had to ride over the charred bodies of their fellow soldiers. The convoy cannot stop and wait. He said he still has chills thinking of when they rode over, and he felt the "bump". He said he also still dives to the ground whenever someone lets off a firework, or from other loud sounds. He's scheduled to go back in September.

What's also interesting is, he went from a staunch Republican who listened to Rush Limbaugh and supported Bush 100% to saying he will vote for either Hillary or Obama. He said more and more troops are hoping a Democrat will win so they can finally get out of Iraq.

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JEP,

I think you're right. The Iraq War is one enormous corporate welfare program. That's why, behind all these scandals like Duke Cunningham, Dusty Foggo, and even the US Attorney firings, you'll find defense contractor pay-offs, and the Bush admin trying to tamper in cases where defense industry pay-offs are being exposed.

They're privatizing the war more and more, so government contracts can end up in the hands of private, for-profit corporations with less oversight from the federal government. That's why billions of dollars can just go "missing".

Bush did not send enough troops to quickly stabilize Iraq. He disbanded the Iraqi military which could have stabilized Iraq. I think his goal was not stability, but to maintain INSTABILITY so he could justify a US presence and keep those taxpayer dollars flowing into private corporations. That's why his only strategy is "stay the course".

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C'mon folks.

Does anyone really believe the surge is other than to buy time? For some, a hail mary to hang on to the permanent bases, the new embassy, and hope that the draft oil and gas law can be shoved through the Iraqi parliament; for others to avoid taking a stand on the war, and avoiding the painful reality that there will not be "victory" but "blowback". And to stall folks from a "tar and feather" operation.

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I believe the increase in beheadings belongs to the tribal gangs in Anbar going after people accused of having ties to al Qaeda. Now what a twist is that? The question becomes, who is financing these tribal gangs? Saudia Arabia?

Lastly, has Iran pushed al Sadr to declare that his forces should put all of there military efforts into killing Americans? Is this why American deaths in Baghdad are soaring? Has this then become a regional war being fought out in Iraq.

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The war will ends in terms of money because it was framed around the basis of acquiring more money. The genocide in Sudan would have been addressed had the Sudanese been starving upon fields of oil. Economically speaking however with regard to the Iraq War; we have failed to make up the difference in lives and cash. As a nation, who now needs to make up for a vast debt and needs to bolster its image, we should vote to focus our efforts on world poverty. The world's poor according to the Borgen Project are the newest and least exploited emerging market. If we could cultivate this market, we could make money and help people.

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"Meanwhile, Muqtada al-Sadr seems to have ended whatever semblance of cooperation he'd offered..." as the U.S. tried to stabilize Baghdad."

Correction: Better check your sources again (not AP). See Juan Cole's blog today.

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I keep after the mainstream papers to "add up the dots" and connect the PSA push to the permanent bases to the PMCs to the no-timeline to the effing OIL, THE OIL FOR CHRISSAKES, but I keep getting a "wha? Oil?" from writers at the Wussy Posse and the LA Times.

The timeline will begin once the mercs have nailed down the oil wells and refineries, the Persian Gulf is riddled with American military guns, and the PSAs are something called "law" in Iraq. THEN BushCo (a fully owned subsidiary of CheneyCo) will talk timeline.

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The surge was underway in 2005/2006 with the addition of tens of thousands of contractors. There are now 100,000 contractors in Iraq, possibly more, doubling the number of troops. (The contractors' jobs were once held by military personnel. Now they're privatized.)

So the "surge" has already been on for some time and it hasn't worked. This new surge isn't likely to work either as the new military personnel are only replacing those who have been injured or killed. Look at the numbers:


3,259 fatalities
24,476 injuries

27,735 total

The number of troops pledged for the surge?
28,829

Data here: http://www.brookings.edu/iraqindex

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You should profile the lead editorial in the NYT, it profiles a case involving the Wisconsin US attorney.

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It would be too bad if we didn't get out of Iraq soon. We need to be spending on issues that really matter such as global poverty. According to the Borgen Project, currently only .16% of our federal budget is spent on this important issue. Let's make a change!

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Klyde wrote:

Why would the iraqis show up? this is our war and occupation not theirs.

Correction. This is Bush's war.

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V LaRoche

You are so delusional.

You are far over-rating the power of the US in Iraq and Mid East.

How so?

Well, look at the Iraqi government. It is filled with Shiite fundamentalists (Al-Maliki, Al-Hakim, et al) who have been fighting to transform Iraq into Shiite fundamentalist republic for over the last twenty years. These guys are not Chalabis. They are beholden to Iran, Hizbollah, et al.

The US will be expulsed soon.

Millions of Iraqis want the US out of Iraq.

There's not a damn thing Bush can do about that.

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Democrats and Congress need to find a viable way to leave Iraq without it being in ruins. Simply leaving without planning would be a disaster, another Afghanistan. The US needs to join together with the rest of the world leaders in figuring out a multilateral way of ending terrorism and Mid-East tensions without engaging in war. The protest by Shiites should warn our government that there will continue to be resistance, and soon a collective against American occupation.

To really get at the root of terrorism, global poverty needs to be addressed. Our leaders need to not abandon Iraq, but support its growth and the growth of other undeveloped countries by funding the UN Millennium Development Goals. According to the Borgen Project, just 0.16 of out federal budget is spent on poverty reduction while $340 billion has been spent on the war. We need to redirect our funds to programs that will work to combat the conditions that enable extremism to exist. We can’t fight terror with terror in a country we are espousing peace to; there need to be an alternative.

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If you're going to have a 24-hour curfew (for cars at least) why not call it a holiday?

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