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Intel Chief Breaks New Non-Disclosure Policy With Dovish Iran Report

Hmm. Could it be that Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell is trying to signal his opposition to a war with Iran?

This morning, the intelligence community released the key judgments of a National Intelligence Estimate concluding "with high confidence" that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003. Yet, just weeks ago, McConnell announced that the NIEs -- assessments of a given national-security or foreign-policy priority across all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies -- would no longer be available to the general public. The Iran NIE, McConnell said, would be no exception. Here's how AP intelligence reporter Pamela Hess reported McConnell's decision on November 13:

McConnell also said a new national intelligence estimate on Iran should be complete in about a month, but its key findings will not be released publicly. He says doing so could alert Iran to its intelligence vulnerabilities.

How quickly times change! Credit McConnell and the intelligence community for the public disclosure: after all, its previous estimate on Iran, completed in 2005, judged that Iran had an active nuclear-weapons program, so keeping the new NIE secret would have amounted to letting an inaccuracy stand. Indeed, that's how McConnell's deputy, Donald Kerr, described the motivation behind disclosure in a statement to reporters:

The decision to release an unclassified version of the Key Judgments of this NIE was made when it was determined that doing so was in the interest of our nation’s security. The Intelligence Community is on the record publicly with numerous statements based on our 2005 assessment on Iran. Since our understanding of Iran’s capabilities has changed, we felt it was important to release this information to ensure that an accurate presentation is available. While the decision to release the declassified Key Judgments was coordinated in discussion with senior policy makers, the IC took responsibility for what portions of the NIE Key Judgments were to be declassified.

Still, it's hard to escape the suspicion that McConnell is wading into the Iran-war debate by violating his non-disclosure policy. We've got a request for comment out to McConnell's office; more soon.


27 Comments

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Does any of this matter if Dick wants to stick us with another war before he heads back to Wyoming? Dick and George do whatever they want, intelligence, congress, public opinion, or sanity, be damned. A false-flag attack or two and the hook is in past the barb once again.

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This is clearly against Cheney's wishes as it ratchets down the Iran-strike justification at least through Bush's term.

It seems more like some Cuban missile crisis messaging back and forth from more moderate elements in the Bush administration (everything being relative!) to more moderate elements of the religious leaders of Iran.

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It literally is beyond me the mental gymnastics people have to go through to actually express support for this administration and its goals, especially in wanting to start another war. I guess I should be grateful that this kind of steroid-induced intellectual dishonesty is simply beyond my capabilities. Unfortunately, I find little comfort that this latest NIE report will prevent Bush/Cheney from bombing Iran. I think they're gonna do it anyway. And I have just as little faith that the Democrats will actually stop them.

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If time-travel were possible, then one could say that the Kyl-Lieberman anti-Iran resolution of 2007 caused Iran to give up trying to produce nuclear weapons in 2003. That makes as much sense as any of the spin that White House officials such as Stephen Hadley are trying to put on this NIE report.

And how fast do you think that the Iranian negotiators are going to seize on this NIE report to deflect the new push in the U.N. security council for stronger sanctions? One half of the Iran argument all along has been that their enrichment program is their right under the non-proliferation treaty. Now they can cite the NIE report for the other half of their argument, that they are not now wanting to build nuclear weapons, is also true.

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"I find little comfort that this latest NIE report will prevent Bush/Cheney from bombing Iran"

except that we may very well be experiencing a decoupling of that bush/cheney alliance. should the rumors about the demise of cheney's influence on bush hold water, then the talk of a return to pragmatism [has the bar ever been set lower] may not so easily be discounted.

of course, one wonders what wolfowitz's reappointment to a position of influence on these matters might mean for US/Iran relations...

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"The decision to release an unclassified version of the Key Judgments of this NIE was made when it was determined that doing so was in the interest of our nation’s security."

translated: protecting the world from neocon crazies inside our own government is now an issue of national security.

i couldn't agree more...

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I think Bush has found his legacy:

"I stopped Cheney from bombing Iran. Now watch this drive."

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CYA at the CIA

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I assume this means we need to invade Qatar as soon as possible.


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Is it possible that this report has been released to goad the Iranians into declaring that they do indeed have a nuclear program in place? And possibly back it up with some kind of data?

Wasn't a fabricated program partly to blame for Saddam's troubles? Exactly who is playing whom here?

The entire issue has a real "Alice through the looking glass" quality to it that spins into layers of bizarre mis/dis/certifiable but not verifiable information.

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Has there been a little horse trading going on here. The Doves get to publish the NIE (under threats of leaks), whilst the Hawks get Wolfowitz in a position to stop a similar report next time.

But remember the clock is running out!

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Maybe the Dove's get to publish the NIE, while the Neocons get telecom immunity?

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I just posted this at emptywheels' new blog. But I'm just posting here as well, because there may be so many other angles to this:

Since so many things interconnect in this crime family in D.C., is there any possibility that the new head of DoJ is somehow involved in this decision?

Or is it possible that someone was readying an expose here? And this is a preemptive release.

And since they knew this more than a year ago, how did this play into the run-up to the election? Not releasing the info.

Or how would this have affected the presentation on the surge in September?

I’m not saying any of these things are necessarily involved, but I’m thinking to ask a lot of questions here. How did the non-release affect certain events? And how does the release now perhaps affect other events? The primaries, for example. Where does Rove fit… or not? Could it have been part of deal related to confirming the new head of DoJ? Or anything else?

Just a bunch of questions. But do time-lines on other things, methinks. Not just related to this. But tangential. Going back over a year. (or more)

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Now what are the Republican Presidential candidates and Hillary Clinton going to do now there is no reason to bomb Iran?

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TheraP, put down the keyboard and step away from the computer

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If this bombing issue is off the table it
makes it better for republican candidates
as they won't have to be asked the Question
"will you bomb Iran."?

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I can't help but wonder if Adm. William Fallon, other powers-that-be in the already-broken military, and other concerned people and interests had a role in releasing key elements of the latest NIE.

Is something going on behind the scenes to circumvent Bush/Cheney?

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I watched FOX so you don't have to.

I wanted to see Charles Krauthammer eat crow. The good Doctor has repeatedly predicted/encouraged bombing Iran. First the other two "All Stars", Morton Kondracke and Fred Barnes, mumbled some incoherent nonsense. I'm not being pedantic. Their words made no sense. I am going to have to look a transcript.

Then Dr. K had his turn and did what all good neo-cons do when they are proven wrong, he praised himself and attacked Democrats.

To paraphrase the good Dr. (No Transcript yet)

"I at least can say yes to good news, unlike Democrats who cannot accept the good news coming out of Iraq."

He apparently hasn't heard Murtha lately.

Krauthammer then went on to say the NIE this will strengthen Americas hand in building a sanctions coalition. Even Brit Hume seemed taken aback on that one. "It will?" huffed Hume.

How can even the Republican faithful swallow this swill. Look out Brit, a few more performances like this and you may find yourself with a fembot attached to your hip like that poor John Gibson fellow.

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To MsD:

I've been wondering the same thing myself: could the Joint Chiefs be behind this? Or some of Poppy's buddies?

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MsD & Youffraita: All things being equal , which they never are , I agree, but more ...I think it suggests that even seasoned vets of information distortion and game playing can , upon entering the Bush-Cheney inner sanctum and seeing the crayola 'explosion' drawings and piles of slit-throated chickens, react with human-like disgust and revulsion, and still to this day be shocked into acting like a person and a being with a soul and conscience. I see it more and more often , fewer and fewer old-school creeps able to stand by this gang . Perhaps among them is a real person, who will bring this rancid criminal enterprise to real light . Untill then , we'll make do with scared-dumb apparatchiks sending faxes late at night .

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does this mean we have an honest , intelligent man in our government--listen attorney general

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Well, I posted a little bit ago at Emptywheel's new blog that it may be an insurrection at the central intelligence agency or NSA. If they threatened mass resignations like some of the generals did, that might have given the powers that be pause enough to allow the NIE to be published. You know, like a list of demands works in a prison riot.

Actually, I think this is a far more effective way of fighting the neocons than just resigning from your job as McConnell said he would if he found any cherry picking of intelligence. Much smarter to expose it publicly, so all I can say is, let the sun shine in!

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Geez, you'd think the software would tell you you're not logged in so you can't comment. But know, it let me write out my 2 paragraph comment and then just disappeared it. I don't know for what other reason it would just throw my comment out, but I'm sure not gonna try to reconstruct now. But the last line was: let the sun shine in!

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I am interested in what Lieberman is going to spin about this. He was SO invested in bombing Iran!

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This is not a case where the administration was suddenly shocked, shocked, to find out that Iran wasn't making nukes.

The release of the NIE is a message sent to all interested parties in the middle east -- the administration, for whatever reason (probably just oil), has decided to break ranks with Israel on Iran and it will not follow that line, at least for the near term. The message to Olmert is that if you don't deliver on major concession for a deal with Palestine (and it is highly unlikely that Olmert can deliver), we won't be backing you in the future. The message for the rest of that region is that we are no longer following the party line - which leaves Joe Lieberman out on a limb.

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"Could it be that Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell is trying to signal his opposition to a war with Iran?"

You're kidding, right?

No. It means the White House thinks it can weave its bullshit into gold and told McConnell to release the NIE. They think they can snow the American public once again.

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also they would like to keep national security and foreign affairs the center point of the presidential debate...cause we all know mccain is ready to bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb iran. and they think this will help because they think they will make obama look weak and not ready to be president

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