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Today's Must Read
Benazir Bhutto, former prime minister of Pakistan and linchpin of a post-Musharraf U.S. strategy in the turbulent South Asian country, was assassinated today in Rawalpindi.
"She has been martyred," said party official Rehman Malik.Bhutto, 54, died in hospital in Rawalpindi. Ary-One Television said she had been shot in the head.
Police said a suicide bomber fired shots at Bhutto as she was leaving the rally venue in a park before blowing himself up.
"The man first fired at Bhutto's vehicle. She ducked and then he blew himself up," said police officer Mohammad Shahid.
Police said 16 people had been killed in the blast.
Earlier, party officials said Bhutto was safe.
The most likely culprit is the Pakistani Taliban and al-Qaeda. But it's not exactly an event met with tears by the Pakistani military, which thoroughly controls the government and the economy. After the summer's turbulence with Islamic radicals and Pervez Musharraf's subsequent declaration of martial law -- designed to crack down not on Islamist militants but the remnants of Pakistan's democratic opposition -- the U.S. prevailed upon Musharraf to ally with Bhutto in the interest of broadening Musharraf's base of support. But the event that would consummate the alliance, next month's election, represented a threat to continued military rule. "The military didn't really want civilian politicians in power," says New York University's Barnett Rubin, a South Asia expert. "They wanted to use them to legitimate indirect [military] rule, and they were going to do it by rigging the election."
U.S. strategy didn't exactly find that so offensive. "The idea was to consolidate the alliance of the so-called moderate forces in the Pakistani military through this election that the military was going to rig but we were going to certify anyway," Rubin observes. That is, as long as Bhutto was in the picture -- since the U.S. had reduced the democratic opposition to the figure of Benazir Bhutto, although her corruption as PM was manifest. Without Bhutto, it is unclear what the U.S. will do.
Bhutto's assassination presents an opportunity for Musharraf. "It's very possible Musharraf will declare [another] state of emergency and postpone the elections," Rubin continues. "That will confirm in many people's minds the idea that the military is behind" the assassination. For it's part, the U.S. will likely "be scrambling to say the election either needs to be held as planned or postponed rather than canceled, but Musharraf is in a position to preempt that."
As a result, Rubin says, U.S. strategy is "in tatters."
A spokeswoman for Richard Boucher, the assistant secretary of state for South Asia, said the senior State Department official will have to get back to TPM.





Why so sure it wasn't Musharraf behind this? It certainly plays into his hands.
December 27, 2007 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yet another charlie-foxtrot of our (partial) construction.
Ahh, the reduction of Tora Bora! What would have been! What could have ben.
Thanks W!
December 27, 2007 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly BernieO. Gets rid of one opponent, allows Musharraf to re-impose martial law yet again, all in one stroke.
And if the US makes any waves, well, they can always let up on the "offensive" against AQ.
December 27, 2007 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Because this happened in Rawalpindi, which is essentially a garrison city, suspicion will fall heavily on the military as having been involved, perhaps by LIHOP (letting it happen on purpose). It would be very difficult for Islamist militants to pull this off in Rawalpindi without help from the authorities.
If they really did get past security, that's still a major embarassment for the military and for Musharaf. It's no surprise that PPP supporters are already blaming Musharaf, and I'm quite sure they will continue to blame him. I don't see any possible result in the short term but renewed martial law. Elections? Give me a break.
December 27, 2007 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Curious this happens after the report of that untraceable $10 billion.
What a tragedy.
December 27, 2007 9:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget this is the second attempt. The first time, Benazir Bhutto blamed dark forces in the Military. Why say 'Pakistani Taliban and al-Qaeda'? She didn't!
December 27, 2007 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Benazir Bhutto knew exactly what the consequences would be if she returned to Pakistan. Her house arrest and the previous assassination attempt were clearly enough evidence that her enemies would not allow her to become Pakistan's leader. Not only does her death deprive the country of a legitimate election, it allows Pervez Musharraf to again declare a state of emergency and delay the elections to suit his agenda. Worse is the fact that it's likely the Pakistan military was complicit in some way in Bhutto's death.
December 27, 2007 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
So much for the commentators who assured me that Pakistan was so stable after Obama made his inflamatory comments about going into Pakistan if Musharraf did not do our bidding. Obama defended by saying -- correctly -- that he was just explaining openly to the American people what everyone else knew was the policy and which many had said more tactfully without the open affront to Pakistan's sovereignity. What I don't get is why Frank Rich now thinks that Obama's blunder was the start of a 'brilliant' new policy.
December 27, 2007 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Jane--You seem to imply some kind of causality between Obama's comments from months ago and Bhutto's assassination. So you think that because Obama made those comments several months ago, Pakistan was aggrieved and the end result is Bhutto's assassination??
Sorry, but your comments are pretty confused.
December 27, 2007 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
The one thing that is reasonably certain is that the minutia of domestic US politics had little, if anything, to do with this.
December 27, 2007 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
From the CNN/AP article:
A U.S. official speaking on grounds of anonymity confirmed that Bhutto was assassinated. No person or group has claimed responsibility for her death, the official said.
What the hell is with this administration and anonymity? Why the hell does one need speak anonymously on her assassination???
December 27, 2007 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Musharref is able to protect himself from this sort of thing, and certainly there is no shortage of radicals who want him dead. So the most charitable interpretation is that, following a previous attempt on Bhutto's life, the military tacitly allowed this 2nd attempt to succeed.
December 27, 2007 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
test
December 27, 2007 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
On September 11 and again today (as well as several times in between) the immediate thought which occurs is that a political system in this country in which the executive and his (or her) government is selected on the basis of who projects the best, who is the nicest person, whose "ground game" is most effective during the primaries, and whose commercials are most effective results in a government that is obsessed with elections and re-elections, the only thing they can do, and not in effectively managing the resources they have and meeting their responsibilities to the country.
On September 11, then, the President was doing what presidents do: he was doing a photo op to support a re-election campaign three years away. When told that the country was under threat he did nothing because that is not what presidents do anymore.
Today, he is in Crawford, Texas. He may, or may not, make an appearance, but it is of no moment. His administration has no real policy in Pakistan other than to hope that some general is in charge so that people who might want to use it, do not get their hands on the nuclear weapons at the Pakistani government's disposal. If they "supported" Benazir Bhuto to share power it was based on nothing but the hope that such an agreement would dampen the efforts by people who want to kill us to get the means to do so.
This is not a policy. Hoping for the best is something I can do as a private citizen. The President of the United States has many more tools and far more responsibility than do I but chooses instead to clear brush. I do not begrudge a person his vacation, especially at this time of year, but if he can interrupt his vacation to interfere with the Schiavo family's travails, he can return to Washington and summon the national security council and people of both parties who have thought about this, to put the United States on a course that will better insure against Pakistan's disintegration.
I do not have the answer. If I did, I would ask to be part of this process. But there are people who know the area and know what to do. None of them are named George Bush, Dick Cheney or Condoleeza Rice, but they are out there. Do something, Mr. President, and I would be willing to pay someone to clear your brush for you.
December 27, 2007 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Musharraf knows that the US wants to replace him. He's just eliminating the alternatives.
December 27, 2007 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
When in a pinch and always in the interest of the few instead of the many, the right uses assassination against popular representatives from the left who won't be intimidated -it almost never goes the other way. It's a cowardly and shameful trait inherant to the right wing of any society since time immemorial. At times like this, I might even venture the possability that it's this tendancy for violence on the behalf of the few that defines the right wing at it's most basic level.
December 27, 2007 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I would think that the US should be pressing for not cancelling the elections. Would her martyrdom not spur a groundswell of support for civilain rule and a high turnout? Or at least make the inevitable election fixing a whole lot more obvious.
I don't think the situation would be at all comparable to the palestinian elections we pushed for, which resulted in a Hamas win. In Pakistan there is broad support for civilian rule in Pakistan, and nowhere near a majority support for islamic extremist parties. Remember it was the lawyers who started the protests against Musharrif stacking the supreme court.
What is the downside to pushing for elections?
-JI
December 27, 2007 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
mr. wagner,
sounds like you're blaming bhutto for her death. bad benazir, bad.
December 27, 2007 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Isnt it ironic that the reason for martial law was to clampdown on terrorists . Supposedly to limit their ability to kill or cause trouble .How could the bomber get though? Someone let him in . He had a gun which should have set off the metal detectors . I beleive the government let them kill her .
No more opposition. NO canditates left to run . Who wins????
December 27, 2007 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
The US military should take decisive military actions against Al Quaida wherever they are. Period.
December 27, 2007 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
i agree, military actions are not good enough. these actions obviously have to be decisive
December 27, 2007 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
It doesn't matter if the US pushes for an election or not. The most important decision to be made right now is by the PPP leadership. Will they contest the election (assuming it's not postponed)? With votes set to be cast in less than two weeks, they've just lost their leader, and there is no clear successor who's anywhere near as popular. She was polling very well and was almost certainly going to be prime minister. At this point, if the PPP decides to boycott the election, then you'd have Pakistan's two largest political parties, the PPP and the PML-N, on the sidelines. If the elections went ahead, they would not be legitimate.
As for suspicision falling on the military because Rawalpindi is a garrison city, there have been several suicide bombings in that city before today's, including some that have claimed the lives of military personnel. So, while I wouldn't discount the military's involvement, I don't think the fact that it occurred in Rawalpindi implicates any particular person or institution.
December 27, 2007 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
The point of deepest concern is the vivid illustration of just how thin the firewall is between A. Q. Khan's operation and Taliban-type factions. Who doesn't think that the slightest provacation by the Americans doesn't eliminate that firewall in a second? And who DOES think that this administration has the competence to do thing one about it?
December 27, 2007 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Financially corrupt as she was, Benazir's assassination is a tragedy.
We should learn: unless a politician has a strong, popular, local base, s/he cannot return from exile to transform a society. The day is gone when educating local elites in Western universities will allow them to become leaders. Instead, the "revolt against the West" (Barraclough) means this is a stigma against them.
And, obviously, the US cannot end terrorism and anti-Americanism by dropping bombs and kicking in doors with armed troops, that is self-evident.
Instead, we should be thinking long-term.
E.g., just one example: heavily fund 1,000 Western professors to teach in universities throughout troubled areas. Pay them well, recruit some of the best. It'll have far deeper impact than bringing students here. To often, they want to stay and enjoy the Western lifestyle (or rely on the US military/CIA to knock off their opponents and put them in power), rather than returning home and doing the hard work themselves of building a political base and working within their system.
December 27, 2007 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mike Timmons - what kind of 'defensive military action' is the US army capable of undertaking? Invading Pakistan too?
Sure, Pakistan is a mess and has been for a very long time. But who bankrolls its military dictatorships which always grab power through emergencies that they are singularly incompetent to manage because these emergencies never really end?
There was a time when Al Quaeda could possibly have been cornered and OBL captured. US military had other priorities, like invading Iraq.
December 27, 2007 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Barth, thank you for your post. I'd love to chip in with you to pay someone to clear that damnable brush. Hope is not a policy, you are so right.
December 27, 2007 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
All part of Bush's damn(ed) legacy.
December 27, 2007 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Has the stage been set to send U.S. troops into Pakistan?
December 27, 2007 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the best piece I've read on the implications of the Bhutto assassination. Nice work!
December 27, 2007 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hassan Chop -- It's one thing to attempt (most were unsuccessful) suicide bombings against general targets of no particular importance, it's quite another to assassinate the former PM and leader of the main opposition party during a campaign event. Obviously security ought to be extremely tight at the latter event. I don't think there is any question that if this was not a case of LIHOP, it was a case of truly frightening incompetence. The perpetrator(s) had firearms as well as a bomb. There's no way anybody should have gotten that close to Bhutto.
I venture to say there's scarcely a person in Pakistan who doesn't think the military was complicit. Certainly that's what Sharif is now implying, and Bhutto's top lieutenant has said so quite explicitly.
December 27, 2007 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
And this just in -- Bhutto was actually killed by a gunshot, through the neck. No, that could not have come from the guy riding a motorcycle who blew himself up. You can't shoot somebody through the neck while riding a motorcycle. That means at least two assassins, one of them an expert sharpshooter, with a rifle that must have been exposed to view in order to take the shot. I'd love to hear an explanation of how that is possible without the complicity of the security forces.
December 27, 2007 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
who benefits?
Musharaff.
The military dictator who dissolved the supreme court and seized power the month before. The same guy protecting Osama Bin Laden.
December 27, 2007 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
“Six men were killed with my father,” Fatima said. “They died from point blank, boom. My father was shot nine times. He would have survived, even though he’d been shot about five times, except for the last shot which was fired execution-style at a point-blank range into his throat.”
Fatima Bhutto, estranged niece of Benazir, describing the death of her father in 1996 by the same type of wound that her aunt suffered today(shot in the neck).
http://www.columbiaspectator.com/?q=node/28363
December 27, 2007 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
hmbnancy wrote on December 27, 2007 2:40 PM:
Has the stage been set to send U.S. troops into Pakistan?
----------------------------------------
Good question but we are talking about a part of the world where anything involving US forces would just raise more questions. Local fundamentalists would just say that the assassination was all a ruse by Musharaff and Bush working together to give US forces a larger footprint in the area, rightly or wrongly. We are talking about a region that seems to run on conspiracy theories. Any US action would have to covert only, with no visible footprint at all.
December 27, 2007 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
sona -- dictatorships which always grab power through emergencies that they are singularly incompetent to manage because these emergencies never really end
That sounds really familiar. Where else has that happened? Where, where, where? Darn it, give me a minute and I'm sure it'll come to me.
December 27, 2007 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
We will probably never know until maybe years in the future. Hopeful people propose so that filth can dispose. An assassination is easy to do. Just find a dumb patsy.
December 27, 2007 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cervantes,
There's certainly a possibility that military intelligence was involved. Like I said, I wouldn't discount it given the history of the ISI. They regularly undermined Bhutto when she was PM, and it would not surprise me in the least to learn that they were somehow involved in this heinous act.
All I was pointing out was that just because it happened in Rawalpindi doesn't automatically mean that elements of the government were involved. There have been 4 major attacks in Rawalpindi since the summer. One in July unsuccessfully targeted Musharraf's plane as it took off. Another in September ended with 26 dead, including military personnel who were targeted, and about 70 wounded. Another in late October killed 7 people. There was a coordinated attack about a month ago, when two suicide bombers in Rawalpindi killed at least 15 people, including members of the ISI. Was the government involved in all of these attacks?
Also, far from being "general targets of no particular importance," the fact that someone was able to repeatedly penetrate the heart of the Pakistani military is incredibly important, though maybe not totally surprising, especially given that the army has been repeatedly routed in Swat and FATA. Of course, Bhutto's assassination ratchets it up several notches, but I don't think that you should downplay the significance of the prior attacks in Rawalpindi.
As for the motorcylce sniper, I'm not sure that your account is neccesarily accurate. The NYT is reporting that a sniper may have fired from a nearby building, while a bomber blew himself up afterwards, which means the weapon could have been hidden. The News (Pakistan) noted that someone ran up to her motorcade and fired at her, with no mention of a motorcycle. The Daily Times (Pakistan) reported that a suicide bomber on a motorbike blew himself up, but the story also said that he first fired shots at her. I'm not sure that it's clear yet exactly what happened given the differing accounts, although we know she died of gunshot wounds.
As to how someone could have gotten in there with a gun (assuming that's what happened) without government help, I'll just note that the GAO has fooled airport screeners by bringing in bomb parts, while hijackers have smuggled weapons onto planes. It may have been, as you said, a case of frightening incompetence.
December 28, 2007 12:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
So, it now seems like she was killed by shrapnel and the bullets never hit her at all. At least that's the word from the interior minister of Pakistan.
December 28, 2007 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Goverment giving false statements and changing over and over their statements they trying to be very over smart but their over smartness make them more doubtfull because first they blame Al Qaida and goverment said they have a phone call traced and made up a stupid fairy tale very next day they Al Qaida denied and they said we never attack on women and the story goverment made its false and all is Drama , govt also claim cause of her death is Sun roof Liver and its happend during blast with so much force her head hit with this liver LOL they are perfect in making stories while investigation was not complet yet but they are sure for everything and new photos showed that before blast a person fire 3 shots and another photo showed that while this man shot her before blast she collapsed in car and then bomb blast , so i dont understand why govt are very sure about every statement they gave yet they are wrong in every statement they gave which makes me feel more doubt full, and right now there is no one who able give hard time to musharaf benazir was able kick him out due to her good position and lots of suport she got from people , so now musharaf maybe feel that he is in safe heaven little, but i guess thing things are not easy
December 29, 2007 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink