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Luntz Explains His Mystery Man
Right after last night's Republican Fox News debate, Frank Luntz appeared to demonstrate that, based on his focus group of New Hampshire Republicans, Mitt Romney was the big winner.
But as Josh pointed out, the group's unanimity of opinion and blind insistence on Romney's rout had a suspicious air to it.
Along those lines, a number of bloggers have pointed out that one man in the focus group actually appeared in a prior Luntz Fox News focus group four months prior. Both were gatherings in New Hampshire (at the same Manchester, New Hampshire restaurant, it appears) of approximately 30 New Hampshire voters -- according to the lead-in last night, Luntz's group were registered Republican undecideds. Although Luntz doesn't identify the man by name in both segments, he's easily identifiable through his appearance and voice -- either that, or he's got an identical twin.
While this isn't necessarily evidence that Luntz has used actors or plants in his segments, it "says there's something sloppy at best about his recruitment process, Mark Blumenthal, a veteran of the polling business and founder of Pollster.com, told me. "If you see a respondent show up twice, it's a sign of professional respondents leaking through."
But when I spoke to Luntz today, he said that he uses repeat participants by design. In a segment to air on Fox News tonight, he said, there should be a "bunch of people" who had been in prior focus groups, some of them participating as early as May of last year. "It allows me to see how people's opinion have changed over time," he explained. "I'm trying to isolate that moment that made the difference."
When asked about the charge that he'd used actors or plants, his already rapid speech accelerated: "That's ridiculous.... I'm sure that the person who said that doesn't have a PhD, probably doesn't have a masters, and doesn't know what they're talking about."
He's conducting a "study of human behavior" with his dial tests (a mechanism that registers viewers' moment by moment reaction) he said, not a traditional focus group. And if you "want to understand how people change their points of view, you have to ask them over time and multiple times. This is how social biologists do it. This is anthropology.... If you're goal is to study how opinions change over time, of course you've got to call them back."
Luntz said that he does pay polling participants, but when asked how much, said "it varies." When I offered that I understood that $50 is the industry norm, he said that he'd paid New Hampshire participants "a bit more than that." "You do what you can," he said, to screen out professional respondents.
And as far as Mitt Romney's rout last night goes, Luntz explained that Romney "has always been effective" at the format. He was actually quite pleased with how it went, but "the one problem we had was a couple hundred Ron Paul people outside, yelling and screaming." (Here's video of Luntz being beset by the angry Paul supporters last night, who were upset at his exclusion from the debate.)
Chuck, as Luntz identified the man in last night's Fox News segment, would seem to be a prime candidate for the study of shifting allegiances in this election. He appeared at about the 1:38 mark of last night's segment, which you can see here:
In the segment, Chuck was clearly on the Romney bandwagon, mostly, it seemed, because he could beat the Democratic nominee: “Romney comes across very clearly and concisely and I can see him being a viable opponent against the Democratic nominee. And I don’t see that coming from Huckabee or one of the other people.”
But when Chuck had his first star turn in a segment after a debate in September, he had a different opinion. John McCain was the one to beat Hillary Clinton, he said: "McCain is a respectable candidate, there's nothing wrong with him." You can see that here (Chuck shows up at around 3:44 mark):
And it's these sorts of changing opinions that has Luntz excited. Luntz called 2008 the "most undecided, most fluid" election he'd seen in his lifetime. "I'm so lucky I get to study it. People wait for 50 years to have an election like this." He said that he was in a prime position to reveal the crucial shifts, having conducted his dial tests at every single debate. "The stuff that I'm doing right now will become a book."
Update: Apparently Time's Joe Klein had a front row seat to yesterday's focus group. His impression: "I'm not sure this was a representative group of Republicans."


It doesn't take a master's degree or a PhD to recognize when some one is b.s.-ing you -- and Frank Luntz is nothing if not a professional b.s. peddler.
January 7, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm impressed there is an interesting video that accompanies this as well where Luntz was confronted by Ron Paul supporters.
Fair and Balanced?
January 7, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Race you all to be the first tracking down who "Chuck" actually is. Come on, it'll be fun.
January 7, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Frank Luntz wears a toupee. End of discussion.
January 7, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Yet...
LOL!!!
I'll tell you what.. he is connected indellibly to the NWO now!
I was thinking the same thing.. I give a day at most, and then a truther with a camera in another
January 7, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
chisholm
That is not a toupee, it is a squirell nest with velcro
January 7, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Luntz is an operative, not a pollster. He's had credible accusations of manipulating his "focus groups" to produce the desired result numerous times before, and he was censured by the American Association for Public Opinion Research for violations of professional ethics.
It's no surprise that his "research" appeared on Fox. About the only conclusion to be drawn from this episode is that the Fox backers are now putting their weight behind Romney.
January 7, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you want to see the raw material...
http://youtube.com/watch?v=5HJaxDt0EbY
The "Fuck You Frank" comment comes from a Penn and Teller video which can be found here:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=If9EWDB_zK4
The truth is that Patriots of this country are confronting Frank Luntz about his bankrupting of the Fourth Estate.
January 7, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you want to see the raw material...
http://youtube.com/watch?v=5HJaxDt0EbY
The "Fuck You Frank" comment comes from a Penn and Teller video which can be found here:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=If9EWDB_zK4
The truth is that Patriots of this country are confronting Frank Luntz about his bankrupting of the Fourth Estate.
January 7, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to mention, that if the guy IS a plant, he could have been there to try to sway opinion towards Romney.
January 7, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a Ph.D.
"social biologists?" Never heard of them!
Not sure I understand a research methodology going on here. Sounds like propaganda disguised as "research."
January 7, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Luntz was also in Venezuela when the Bushies tried to topple Chavez. He confirmed it on Hard Ball to Matthews but would not say what he did in Venezuela.
January 7, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Luntz was also in Venezuela when the Bushies tried to topple Chavez. He confirmed it on Hard Ball to Matthews but would not say what he did in Venezuela.
January 7, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm struggling with the wording, but I have formulated an opinion:
BULLSHIT
January 7, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
FUCK YOU FRANK!
January 7, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it me or does 'Chuck' look just like BTK?!
January 7, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
The one problem with Luntz's response is he NEVER disclosed he was using repeat undecided voters before. When I saw the debates live, I assumed the people were randomly picked from the electorate. Even if you think you're not doing anything wrong, it's imperative to have full disclosure on what you're doing. What do you think would happen if one of the polls was found to purposely call the same people repeatedly over several polls?
January 7, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wrote to Josh Marshall this morning and complained about two posts quoting Luntz' focus group participants. Both were negative on Hillary Clinton. Why do TPM and TPM Election Central give Luntz a platform at all except to point out the fact that he's an operative?
January 7, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Astroturf manufactored opine and seemingly paid for by FAUX whom is taking some real criticism for how it is handling NH.
Now all news stories frame a story, but none such as Faux has done lately and the public is looking for the examples carefully.
I see this as Luntz's I'm a media dinnosour whore wail... One thing is damn sure, there is an increasingly larger portion of the electorate that is tunning OUT MSM and that that trend is growig.
January 7, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps he is being honest about what he's doing. I don't think so, but let's give him the benefit of the doubt that he's doing some sort of social scientific experiment with all this.
Isn't it at least as legitimate a source of outrage that he's actively studying to find the specific points at which a voter changes his mind as a method of making propaganda more effective? Never mind his or Fox's use of it in this event, but what he's asking us to do in forgiving him is to legitimize the pursuit of better talking points!
January 7, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is clear to me that these Luntz groups are phony. My husband is a sociology professor who has done a lot of research studies and he says that no one would deliberately do this.
Joe Klein has sat in on a few of these Luntz groups lately and used them as a basis for his columns. Luntz is deliberately using the groups to sway journalists' opinions about the electorate and help determine the way in which they cover the candidates.
January 7, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
dsco
He has a Denis Rader look...
This is very serious Luntz has hired a serial killer as a schill.
January 7, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Baloney Luntz...if that were true you would have disclosed this tidbit before you got caught red handed. Free and fair elections? I'm just not sure anymore.
January 7, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
The amount Luntz pays his actors "varies" depending on how well they fluff Fox's current favorite.
Why else wouldn't he pay them a flat fee?
January 7, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Supposedly they are all "undecided" when they show up. And based on what they see and hear they have made up their minds.
Luntz asks the question, "Does Mike Huckabee talk about religion too much!" answer: (everyone) yes! and those to get a lady's response on that subject.
The problem: Mike Huckabee didn't talk about religion in this debate..
That can only mean one thing: The anti-Huckabee attitudes about religion were already there when thye showed up... which means they weren't "undecided" before they showed up.
January 7, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
TheraP wrote
"social biologists?" Never heard of them!
Me too, and me neither.
January 7, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Luntz was conducting the microscopic political study he pretends, it would be fine for him to write his insignifigant little paper and let it be buried in academia somewhere, Luntz, however, tries to comes off on tv as an expert on what the country thinks.
Luntz never disclosed that he was using such a narrow view of participants for his studies. Our country has had far to much deceit and lies already.
Luntz offers only misinformation and needs to be lost along with those he represents. Our country can no longer afford this form of deception. These are solely my thoughts and opinions, and my thoughts are that it's time for THE TRUTH TO SET US ALL FREE!!!!
DUMP LUNTZ!!!!
January 7, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
The best thing that could happen right now is a concerted effort to ID this guy and find out what his background is. This isn't the first time this kind of thing has happened in the media.
In Florida, an "interview" with a student at a local university found him strongly for Bush prior to the 2004 election. Turns out the student was also head of the campus GOP student organization.
CBS interviewed a 28-year old man purported to represent the generation of current contributors to Social Security who would be impacted by changes...or lack of them in the way SS is funded. The interviewee was quoted as saying that by the time he was retired, SS would be broke and so he really supported the idea of individual retirement accounts.
He turned out to also be the head of a taxpayer group strongly supportive of IRA's but CBS never bothered to note that fact in describing him.
Just another day of good old fashioned American mainstream media journalism. Note too that all of these little "slips" got discovered, not by the MSM, but by bloggers....including the recent double use of the same focus group guy, and Josh Marshall latching on to the surprising number of USA firings. Tis why I get more and more of my "news" by reading LOTS of blogs and comparing and contrasting. I find it keeps me in closer touch with reality.
January 7, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
My neighbor in Iowa had the MittMobile over at his house on New Years Day with about 30-40 folks from the hood. The next day he appeared on a Luntz 'independent focus group'. He was pretty proud of the fact that 'he had no idea' how he was selected.
January 7, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Luntz wanted honest opinions he'd grant his respondent anonymity. "Everyone who supports Mitt now raise your hand" is nonsense. You can see people tentatively raising their hands and looking around for approval. And they get to be on TV if they then say something to respond to his leading question about what made Mitt such a success!
January 7, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
So we know David Horowitz is so desperate for fundraising he'll show up for a bit more than $50.
January 7, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
to dweb
Chuck is a FAUX NEWS/NWO paid schill until such time that his affiliations to being an average schmoe are confirmed, or denied!
:)
I bet his neighbor is doing a youtube video now, I live by the creep Chuck in the Luntz's videos.
January 7, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can the media simply refer to him as Political Operative Frank Putz, instead of 'pollster' from now on.
-GSD
January 7, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
TheraP: Perhaps social biologists teach the theory of creation. I'll have to check the faculty at Regants University.
January 7, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Both of these focus groups just "happened" to agree with Luntz's candidate of choice both times. And by "candidate of choice" I mean the candidate he wanted to promote for whatever sleazy reason he has. Fire Frank!
January 7, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah... Imagine finding 30plus gooper independents that as a group change to support articulately a Mitt Romney. Who saw the dramatic closer skills in the Mittster?
January 7, 2008 6:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm encoouraged by the comments above.
There may be hope for our Republic after all.
Sisyphus
January 7, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can sign up for a FAUX focus group at www dot luntz dot com
Maybe the guy is Frank Luntz's lob cabin lover and Frank uses the corporate tab to fly him around?
I just signed up to be on Faux, I'll tell you when I meet Hannity and Luntz in an exclusive here.
January 7, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
These folks have their head up their own butts. Democrats aren't voting for these fools.
January 7, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Focus group? I suppose that is what they called it. Perhaps that is the way political pollsters do it, way to big based on methods guidelines. Leading questions don't make for good methods in any context.
Partial repeat carry over of members may provide a method of tracking shifting attitudes when the numbers are in the hundreds, but with 30? How many are carry over? How is this different from anecdotal?
January 7, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
How about a Milgram-type experiment to find out who the REAL Republicans are? Frank could sit there behind the one-way mirror and observe the subjects' reaction to authoritative instructions. Instead of electric shocks, it's been updated to waterboarding.
January 7, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Frank Luntz doesn't do charitable work - he has a dog in this fight somewhere on the GOP side. He's very deeply embedded into the GOP old guard. He takes great pride in the way that he "scientifically" manipulates public opinion through spiked focus groups, skewed polling questions and (begrudgingly) clever manipulation of language for conservative under-the-radar marketing programs. He's oft been Rove's hatchet man.
Frank's gems include turning logging into the "healthy forests initiative" and the inheritance tax into the "death tax". He has set back the global warming discussion by years. In other words, he helps the conservatives sugar coat bitter pills and we all get the shaft. Although he won't admit the fact, Luntz has more in common with Joseph Goebbels (another PhD holder in language) than Madison Avenue.
Right now in NH, Frank is probably trying to undermine the Huckabee surge that seems to be freaking out the Republican old guard. Romney may also be very likely underwriting his activities.
TPM needs to get an updated picture of Frank. Yes, he wears a shaggy rug. But he's also grown pretty chunky in a way that is reminiscent of Jabba the Hutt. Under the TV lights you often see beads of sweat trickling over the scales that adorn his skin.
January 7, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another argument against assuming that degrees mean anything.
You can't infer anything about a subject's "change" if you don't know what has influenced him in the mean time. Reactions can come by associations with unknown events; (i.e. "my ex used that phrase all the time") etc. Before you can detect anything in an experiment, you have to control the parameters. This guy's experimental method is pure crap.
January 7, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am not a Phd but My guess is that about 70% of the people will respond to this article by saying this -
FUCK YOU FRANK!
January 7, 2008 8:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
frank gets around
he was here is Australia a couple of months ago and was written up very respectfully by the local morloch press.
didn't do much except draw attention to the type of tactics the conservatives had sunk to.
oh well.
January 7, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Media effects research of the kind Luntz implies he is doing (moment-by-moment reactions to mediated information) requires carefully controlled experimental conditions. Otherwise it yields gibberish. Luntz gives no indication that he is following any coherent or even incoherent experimental design or method. Assuming that his credentials are as he describes them, he knows very well that under the "research conditions" of a Fox television studio his pretense to science is ludicrous. But it doesn't matter to him. He only needs to impress viewers who are not so knowledgeable. What the rest of us, the intelligent American majority, think about his methods is laughably irrelevant. He knows his audience. He's not on Fox for us.
Yet deep down a man like this also knows that soon the ghost of his Ph.D. adviser and the souls of all the other good people who expected from him not mere celebrity but honesty and great things will come calling during sleepless nights, night after night, and one day he'll repent. And we'll welcome his repentance.
Ozzinny has the political aspect about right, I suppose.
January 7, 2008 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Propaganda - Propaganda - FAUX Propaganda -Any squirrel with two nuts to rub together cold tell you that was all completely rehearsed and canned. I can believe that someone smart enough to vote in this country would buy any of that BS.
I sure hope that Luntz is paying these idiot fakers well, b/c they are going to need a lot of money to buy ice to keep them cool where they are going.
--- GO RON PAUL --- DONATE AND THEN VOTE!!!
January 8, 2008 12:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fuck You Frank Putz!!!
January 8, 2008 2:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
TheraP wrote
"social biologists?" Never heard of them!
Maybe His (supposed) PH'Dness has decided that he is using a method of a controversial hybrid discipline known as Socio-biology, which contends that genes predict behaviors.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sociobiology
Don't bother to suppress the jokes/snark... It could be painful.
January 8, 2008 2:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fuck you Frank!
January 8, 2008 7:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can't beleive TPM is letting this issue go like this. Even if you believe Luntz that he is tracking the same voters over time, why aren't all the voters in the two focus groups the same? Why only one guy -- who gets asked a quesiton on air each time?
I can't believe that TPM is so gullible. Your stories get picked up by the MSM. You have the opportunity to discredit Luntz once and for all and you are dropping the ball.
January 8, 2008 9:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have participated in several focus groups, although none were on politics. In some of them, I was a "self-plant"--I did not break any rules or fail to disclose pertinent information, but I definitely had a dog in the fight. So my opinions would have been skewed had this been the reason I was there. But my goal was something different--like Luntz, I was studying behavior.
Since the groups I was attending were for product development, they were led by a couple of marketing people, usually a man and a woman. It was blatantly obvious that they were pushing the group in a particular direction, despite multiple disclaimers that they just wanted our opinions. I waited for a few minutes, then made an argument in the opposite direction that I knew would appeal to others. It is not particularly relevant whether my argument was earnest--the entire group ended up going in my direction by the end of the time slot. The marketing people were visibly displeased by the outcome.
These focus groups are sitting ducks. They are locked in the room, being fed some bullshit. They are just waiting for an authority figure to show up and lead them out of the wilderness. Chuck may very well have been their Moses. It's also important to consider that Luntz is not unbiased and his and his employees' subtle biases may well be apparent to the participants.
Even when his conclusions make some sense, Luntz's methodology is often questionable. Although he plays social scientist here, his goal has nothing to do with science--he wants to be able to manipulate people's behavior, not just observe it.
The bottom line is that such focus group conclusions are not to be trusted, ever, but even more so when Luntz and Fox News are involved.
January 8, 2008 9:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
The credibility of Dr. Luntz is stretched beyond breaking point.
This is an individual who, by his own account, is a specialist in "testing language and finding words that will help his clients sell their product or turn public opinion on an issue or a candidate."
He has been censured by the National Council on Public Polls and reprimanded by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.
Early last year, he publicly redefined 'Orwellian' as "...to speak with absolute clarity."
In short, he is a professional in doublespeak who appears to be unfettered by the constraints of moral and socially acceptable behaviour. How Orwellian.
January 8, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure if somebody dug down into the paperwork, there would be a check from a Romney organization to Luntz.
Those "undecideds" were too wildly enthusiastic and unanimous based just on Romney's debate performance.
Paid shills...
January 8, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Joe Klein, a certified idiot, said "I'm not sure this was a representative group of Republicans." Well, Joe, let me tell you something. It wasn't. No focus group is representative of anything. That's one of the differences between a focus group and a poll.
Re Frank Luntz. Luntz is a scumbag who faked the results of his Contract On America "polling". He is also a terrible focus group moderator. Rule #1 of focus group moderating is don't lead the witness, which is what Luntz does all the time.
Finally, if I found the same person twice in one of my focus groups, I'd be angry with the focus group recruiter. SOP is to bar anyone who has attended a focus group in the previous year. You don't want professional focus group attenders in your group.
Of course, no one who is familar with Luntz's lack of character and professional dishonesty would put it past him to have a plant in his group
January 8, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Although Luntz is a Fox News tool, the guy who showed up at two focus groups in New Hampshire was more likely because of sloppiness and laziness than any other motive.
I live in a city where Frankie does many focus groups– a few blocks from my house. It’s always a quick 100 bucks to go sit and play with his “patented Fox News Dials” (they are actually not patented, and not from Fox News), and get a preview of what agenda will be pushed next.
I have done over TEN groups with him— they never check who they hire— they just need to fill the seats to look good for whatever client is behind the one-way glass.
I have been in many groups where people walk out. He insults people, forces the ‘correct’ answers from people, browbeats people…. He’ll cut you off if you give an opinion he does not like. Just a fat, smug bully with bad teeth.
Once, when he left the room the whole group was so pi**ed off, we all agreed to swing his ‘dials’ at random– and he concocted ‘trends’ from this to prove a later point.
Scientific, indeed.
He’s just another B.S. artist making a buck…. just like me, also making a buck (from him).
January 8, 2008 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Although Luntz is a Fox News tool, the guy who showed up at two focus groups in New Hampshire was more likely because of sloppiness and laziness than any other motive.
I live in a city where Frankie does many focus groups– a few blocks from my house. It’s always a quick 100 bucks to go sit and play with his “patented Fox News Dials” (they are actually not patented, and not from Fox News), and get a preview of what agenda will be pushed next.
I have done over TEN groups with him— they never check who they hire— they just need to fill the seats to look good for whatever client is behind the one-way glass.
I have been in many groups where people walk out. He insults people, forces the ‘correct’ answers from people, browbeats people…. He’ll cut you off if you give an opinion he does not like.
Once, when he left the room the whole group was so pi**ed off, we all agreed to swing his ‘dials’ at random– and he concocted ‘trends’ from this to prove a later point.
Scientific, indeed.
He’s just another B.S. artist making a buck…. just like me, also making a buck (from him).
January 8, 2008 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good to know, Elliot...
January 9, 2008 8:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Elliot, that was fascinating.
Buck, I love the way you think.
January 10, 2008 2:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pol Pot knew what to do with guys like this.
January 10, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Luntz's dial meter has been accurate every single time and I think his focus groups are very informative and helpful.
As far as the "plant", his explanation sounded right on the money to me as I have had extensive experience with how these people get vetted.
January 16, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Samantha-- What on earth do you mean? Informative and helpdful? To whom?
And if you have "extensive experience with how these people get vetted.", and you think I was "Right on the Money", then... then... how can you possibly say the "dials" are accurate" ????
Samantha wrote on January 16, 2008 3:58 PM:
Luntz's dial meter has been accurate every single time and I think his focus groups are very informative and helpful.
As far as the "plant", his explanation sounded right on the money to me as I have had extensive experience with how these people get vetted.
January 18, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink