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New National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq to Remain Secret?
As we noted earlier this month, the intelligence community has been working towards producing a new national intelligence estimate on Iraq, and it's likely to be completed in the next several weeks. It is also, unlike the last several NIEs on Iraq and last year's report on Iran, likely to be kept secret. The report, like the last two NIEs on Iraq, will take stock of the situation there -- both military and political.
That's because Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell thinks it's bad policy to release declassified versions of the reports' key judgments. It's part of his general philosophy that public debate about intelligence issues kills Americans.
So The Washington Post's Walter Pincus reports today that McConnell's deputy said that the NIE process is "getting a makeover by senior intelligence officials to improve its credibility" -- meaning that they want to make sure that no dodgy information (e.g. aluminum tubes) makes it in there.
Which is all well and good, but as Pincus points out, "these changes will be incorporated in the classified NIE on Iraq, but the public probably will not have a chance to judge them." Once the NIE is completed, the National Intelligence Board, of which McConnell is chairman, will decide whether to declassify anything for release. He's already said as a matter of policy that NIEs should be kept quiet. The Iran NIE -- which undercut the administration's public statements about Iran's nuclear capabilities -- was only released out of a fear that its contents would be leaked to the media.
It remains to be seen whether McConnell will have his way. The Hill has so far been quiet on whether there ought to be a declassified version. I put the question to the chairmen of the two intelligence committees -- Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D-TX) and Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) this morning, and I'll let you know what I hear.
Update: A spokesman for Sen. Rockefeller replies: “Our office won’t have any comment on the report until it is finished.”
Comments (12)
Considering how little talking about the estimates that led the Bush administration to invade Iraq and how many people have been killed or injured perhaps, MORE talking not less would be a better approach.
March 26, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Trying to keep the latest NIE a secret? Wrong move, McConnell. Threat of leakage almost guaranteed now, just like last time.
March 26, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps that's the idea... nothing like a distraction from the collapsing economy to yesterday's news. Hands up anyone in the US who still thinks al-Quaeda and Saddam had any kinds of links or that Saddam had WMDs beyond mustard gas shells. No takers? QED.
March 28, 2008 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course they won't release it. Bush... er... the American public can't handle the truth.
March 26, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can't handle what you don't know. Bush & Friends have never known the truth...only the alternate reality they substitute. His (father's) money, name, connections etc has enabled him to live free...of reality.
March 26, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quite. What was it Orwell wrote...
He who controls the present controls the past
March 28, 2008 9:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's because Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell thinks it's bad policy to release declassified versions of the reports' key judgments.
McConnell has clearly shown that he believes that releasing information that contradicts administration statements is bad policy, and lying about intelligence to support them (FISA kept us from eavesdropping on Iraqi kidnappers, anyone?) is good policy. In an administration that was not entirely based on lies and deception, he would be out on his ear.
March 26, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two issues include Information for the voters on budget issues; and the purpose of intelligence estimates.
Suppressing the NIE on Iraq smacks of denying the public of information to make informed voting decisions related to debt and public financial obligations. With these Iraq war debts contributing to an unstable US financial situation, the voters need a starting point for a discussion of the debts the public is being asked to support going forward. Had FDR in WWII bungled the war planning, he could have been removed. Suppressing the NIE sounds like the President is turning down the volume of FDR's fire side chats.
One might argue that NIEs are secret when they are about foreign powers. The case with Iraq is different: The US, in effect, occupies the nation; it is not a foreign power in the traditional sense. Classifying the NIE about Iraq seems more like an effort to block public discussion of failed US military strategy, as was the hope in re Vietnam. If the US NIE on Iraq is suppressed, what about the Intelligence Community's NIE about the United States? We can thank the media for ensuring the NIE on America does not see the light of day.
March 26, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Inquiry: Is it not illegal to fail to release the declassified version of NIE after it is delivered to Congress?
March 26, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Richard,
Thanks for your interesting question. Some thoughts.
March 26, 2008 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cynically, do the NIEs really tell us anything new other than what the intelligence community has cut and paste from the open media? If NIE on Iraq isn't released, why not publish our own? Last time the Senate intelligence committee agreed to something in secret, it seems we learned later they "didn't realize" what they were agreeing to (rendition, FISA violations, NSLs, warrantless surveillance). There's no reason to trust the US government, without oversight of the NIE on Iraq, to do the right thing.
Sunlight and accountability. Isn't that what elections and change are all about? The public needs to see the information, otherwise there's nothing before us to justify confidence in the plans, budget decisions, or agreements going forward. That's not change. The Senate should filibuster all budget bills related to this NIE on Iraq, then after it is declassified under a new president, we can reconsider the intelligence community's request for additional pork.
March 26, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
When the policy is as convoluted as this:
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=41737
I'd try to hide all evidence too.
March 26, 2008 11:29 PM | Reply | Permalink