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Today's Must Read

I suppose it was always the case that when top military professionals speak frankly about a war, it makes headlines. Still, given Gen. David Petraeus' famously obtuse presentation to Congress last week, this recent report (pdf) from the National Defense University by Joseph Collins, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Stability Operations in the Pentagon until 2004, couldn't provide a starker contrast. It is titled "Choosing War: The Decision to Invade Iraq and Its Aftermath," and it begins:

Measured in blood and treasure, the war in Iraq has achieved the status of a major war and a major debacle. As of fall 2007, this conflict has cost the United States over 3,800 dead and over 28,000 wounded. Allied casualties accounted for another 300 dead. Iraqi civilian deaths--mostly at the hands of other Iraqis--may number as high as 82,000. Over 7,500 Iraqi soldiers and police officers have also been killed. Fifteen percent of the Iraqi population has become refugees or displaced persons. The Congressional Research Service estimates that the United States now spends over $10 billion per month on the war, and that the total, direct U.S. costs from March 2003 to July 2007 have exceeded $450 billion, all of which has been covered by deficit spending. No one as yet has calculated the costs of long-term veterans' benefits or the total impact on Service personnel and materiel.

The war's political impact also has been great. Globally, U.S. standing among friends and allies has fallen.2 Our status as a moral leader has been damaged by the war, the subsequent occupation of a Muslim nation, and various issues concerning the treatment of detainees. At the same time, operations in Iraq have had a negative impact on all other efforts in the war on terror, which must bow to the priority of Iraq when it comes to manpower, materiel, and the attention of decisionmakers. Our Armed Forces-- especially the Army and Marine Corps--have been severely strained by the war in Iraq. Compounding all of these problems, our efforts there were designed to enhance U.S. national security, but they have become, at least temporarily, an incubator for terrorism and have emboldened Iran to expand its influence throughout the Middle East.

As this case study is being written, despite impressive progress in security during the surge, the outcome of the war is in doubt. Strong majorities of both Iraqis and Americans favor some sort of U.S. withdrawal. Intelligence analysts, however, remind us that the only thing worse than an Iraq with an American army may be an Iraq after the rapid withdrawal of that army.... No one has calculated the psychopolitical impact of a perceived defeat on the U.S. reputation for power or the future of the overall war on terror. For many analysts (including this one), Iraq remains a "must win," but for many others, despite the obvious progress under General David Petraeus and the surge, it now looks like a "can't win."


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Clearly just a bunch of BDSers who have no qualifications, a hatred of America, and a love of terrorists.

LOOK! Petraeus is holding something shiny! Look over there!

Signed,
Your media

Look out, Joseph Collins, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Stability Operations in the Pentagon until 2004. Michelle Malkin is going to send her minions over to your house to inspect your kitchen countertops any minute now.

When will these experts start calling this fiasco what it really is? It is not a war, it is an occupation and it is proceeding just like most occupations - Nazi German in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Russia. Great Britain in Ireland, and Israel in the Golan Heights, the West Banks and Gaza Strip.

Seriously, we can not "win" an occupation. All we can do is bleed soldier and civilian blood and money over there until we run out of one or the other.

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Exactly. Right now, we're occupying a country, supporting a government that in reality is little more than another Shiite militia, albeit one with the strongest ties to Iran (via ISCI, previously known as SCIRI).

This government, being backed by both Iran and the US, is hardly likely ever to survive at the hands of either the Sunni or Shiite Iraqi nationalists who will take over if the US should ever leave.

So, when the analyst author talks about Iraq being a "must win," he/she is being foolish, for if you define victory as this government surviving after its foreign support leaves, that's pretty much unimaginable.

In other words, we're not even on the right track to "victory."

You expect me to read this whole thing, and then offer up something snarky in reply....Sheeesh, what do you think, I'm sitting at home in my robe with nothing to do?

If there was ever a clearer example of being between a rock and a hard place, I haven't seen it.

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If we'd all stop calling this a war and treat it as the occupation that it's been for years now, we'd probably be able to coalesce around a much smarter, cheaper, less destructive approach. A war can be won or lost, so there's a national pride that gets in the way of reason. An occupation can only be managed, so there's no shame or defeat in withdrawing. George Bush won the war. Mission accomplished. Pride saved. Now let's manage the occupation. We can't let McCain frame withdrawal as defeat.

I see as I'm finishing this that disgusted citizen has a similar message. I'm with you, Disgusted.

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And here's the excerpts the media, wingnuts (but I repeat myself) and Bush will read:

The war's political impact also has been great.
For many analysts (including this one), Iraq remains a "must win[...]"


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Lying a country into a war is worse than terrorism!

I don't know if it is WORSE than terrorism, but it is just as bad. Both involve needless, unjustifiable killing of innocents.


"I suppose it was always the case that when top military professionals speak frankly about a war, it makes headlines."

Makes headlines? I am still waiting. McCLatchy is doing their typically stellar job here, but for Newspapers I see (on google news) the Myrtle Beach News, the Buffalo News, the Akron Beacon Journal and the Miami Herald. (it's on the USA Today blog page, but no idea if it's in print). Where's WAPO? Where's NYT? What about the Trib? I hope the headlines start to come. (writing at 8:21 am California time)

Hoopoe, I'm sorry to interrupt the thread, but OMG what is that bird?

it's a hoopoe

In Ovid's Metamorphoses the story of Procne & Philomela features a villain, Tereus, who is tranformed into a hoopoe by the gods at the end of the tale. The other two girls end up being tranformed into the swallow and the nightingale.

There has been an aversion to truth-telling on Iraq for quite some time. See the obvious differences between Petraeus testimony, and the Pentagon Institute report released today...

It's really sad to watch as Bush runs out the clock on his Presidency and Iraq. In a few months, he will run off to Crawford, leaving the next President with a nice juicy shit sandwich. Thanks.

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This is like a splinter that needs to be pulled out. Maybe there's infection in there. Maybe there will be a huge problem because the splinter's been in there for 5 years... but it has to come out! Waiting will not make it any easier to get out and the aftereffects will be there in any case. Someone needs to pull the splinter out!

no, we must not pull the splinter out, we must leave the splinter in as long as possible because to do otherwise would demonstrate weakness.

In the meantime we must continue to apply generous amounts of antibiotics to quell the insurrection... er, infection. And when the bacterial infection develops a resistance to the antibiotics, that only means we should add even more antibiotics.

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How does a debacle that never should have begun and has caused us so much financial, military and diplomatic harm become a "must win?" When you step into a quagmire, forward is hardly ever the right way to go.


Iraqi civilian deaths--mostly at the hands of other Iraqis--may number as high as 82,000.

"may number as high as", how about
"the number of Iraqi civilian deaths is hard to identify with accuracy but responsible estimates go as high as 600,000 and even higher"

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They are low balling the number of Iraqi dead. Iraq Body Count which ONLY counts deaths enumerated in the media has the number at 82-90,000. Obviously an underestimate.

The Lancet survey has the most probable estimate at 650,000 for excess mortality. A WHO survey finds 150,000 deaths due to violence (extrapolation yields 400,000 excess deaths). http://www.prwatch.org/node/7034

before the Lancet study came out - and it came out some time ago, so the numbers have got to be higher since then - the misAdministration pooh-poohed Iraq Body Count and put forth the argument that since Iraqi deaths were difficult to count, that it was as if nobody had died at all and we shouldn't trouble our beautiful minds with the business.

After the Lancet study came out, they embraced Iraq Body Count as the worst-case.

Worst. Presidency. Ever.

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We're going to have to work to overcome the doom and gloomers who say there will be chaos, (like there isn't now?) when we withdraw from Iraq. It's the last refuge of Republicans and the oh so serious class like O'Hanlon. If we let go of the tiger's tail Iran, Saudi Arabia the whole damn peninsula may go up in flames of a middle east civil war. It's all Bullshit. There's ample evidence that's not true though you don't see it in the US media.

As an example Marc Lynch points us to the latest polling from 6 Arab countries in the region:

http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2008/04/what-the-people.html

There isn't going to be a region wide civil war over Iraq when we leave anymore than the North Vietnamese victory in 1975 led to dominoes falling over SE Asia into communism. None of the nations surrounding Iraq have nearly as much firepower as the United States. They have no desire to repeat George Bush's horrendous mistake. If anyone was stupid enough to try Iraqi nationalists who have no desire to subordinate themselves and their oil wealth to their neighbors anymore than they do the US would force them to drain their treasuries, kill their soldiers, and probably bring down their governments too.

In short, as Josh said awhile back and I tell every nervous nelly who thinks he has crystal ball
and repeats that last argument, the occupation of Iraq isn't the solution to the problem, it is the problem.



You know what the real shame is here? Even when one of these people try to tell the truth they still lie to themselves and their audience with statistics. When Collins cites casualty statistics he omits from mention that private contractors (read: foreign mercenaries) have lost more personnel in Iraq than the U.S. Military has.

He cites a figure for refugees from this war at 15% of the Iraqi population. Define refugee. When people finds themselves trapped in compromised domiciles with 1 - 3 hours of electricity per day and no access to potable water; in temperatures that reach 138 degrees in the shade, I submit that those people meet the criteria for refugees. The present refugee population of Iraq is easily 50% of the population. In fact I suspect the 80/20 law is closer to the truth in this case. I submit that an honest reading of the situation would put 80% of the population into the category of refugees. The only portion of the country that is presently open for business and not on some form of a refugee footing is Kurdistan.

When Collins talks of cost in American treasure he says that cost has exceeded 450 Billion. The real cost including incidental expenses and unintended consequences is somewhere between 2.5 and 3 Trillion dollars.

As long as we continue to allow our leaders to lie to themselves and ourselves, this situation and the worldwide denigration it has created and is evolving will increase instability in this country. This constitutes a direct threat to the continued existence of the United States of America.

And finally I submit:

When the Executive Branch in collusion with the Legislative and Judicial Branches of Government completes its decimation of the Bill of Rights, the United States of America will have ceased to exist; regardless of what we choose to call it.

Iraqi civilian deaths--mostly at the hands of other Iraqis--may number as high as 82,000.

How accurate is this? Highly dubious and variously disputed "facts" such as these mark a shoddy analysis.

The author also mentions refugees and displaced persons as "(F)ifteen percent of the Iraqi population..." (again, a dubious number -- UNHCR says 4.5 million refugees and displaced which equal about 20 percent of prewar population).

Embedded numbers like these tend to pass unnoticed and therefore remain undisputed. The headline "War a debacle" serves little purpose other than to distract from the tragedy itself; that is, to turn a tragedy into a statistic (as Stalin observed.) The high patriotic purpose -- botched by Bush, presumably to be righted by a straight-shooting war hero (etc.) -- remains in place.

The actuality of the war -- er, occupation -- is again pushed away only to set the table for a new, better strategy that will advance American interests: It can be done more intelligently, less expensively, and with nobler purpose if only we ...

But if we look at the human tragedy this invasion has caused, who can defend it as anything but a crime and the perpetrators war criminals? 87,000 dead -- mostly at the hands of other Iraqis???

Bullshit!

Try a million dead and millions more displaced and "debacle" turns into "war crime" which is as it should be described.

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Taking issue with Collins over how many Iraqi dead or any other stats is irrelevant. The conclusion he comes to is correct. It's a debacle.

If he uses the Lancet figures he'd have the wingnuts using those figures to discredit and ignore the whole study.

Try to keep on message folks: the occupation of Iraq isn't the solution to the problem, it is the problem.

Once in a while, on c-span, you'll see a very serious congressperson state that we can't withdraw from Iraq, as that would enable al Qaeda to grab all the oil. Imagine al Qaeda financed by oil revenues from the second largest proven oil reserves, they say.
I call BS. Why does not someone stand up and point out to them that this is an impossibility?
AQI take over Iraq? Get real!
The obtuseness of roughly half the people enacting our laws and running our country is staggering.

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A representative from The Heritage Fnd was on C-SPAN's Washington Journal today and he used the word "win" when referring to the war in Iraq.

The author of the report mentioned here also used the word "win" in Iraq.

I believe there are too many definitions of the word "win" when referring to the Iraq war. I tried to get thru to C-SPAN to ask the guest to define the word, but alas, I never got thru.

So the opinion that ; "We have to win in Iraq" or "We can't leave until we win," needs to be followed by ONE universally accepted definition of the word.

After hearing all the rhetoric about Iraq for the last 5 years, all the bullshit Bush and his cohort served up, in my opinion the definition of winning in Iraq is; seeing the Kurds, Shia and Sunnies marching arm in arm under the sunshine of DEMOCRACY, PEACE and PROSPERITY.

Anything less cannot be defined as winning.

After hearing all the rhetoric about Iraq for the last 5 years, all the bullshit Bush and his cohort served up, in my opinion the definition of winning in Iraq is; seeing the Kurds, Shia and Sunnies marching arm in arm under the sunshine of DEMOCRACY, PEACE and PROSPERITY.

In other words, we'll be there forever because that will never happen.

After hearing all the rhetoric about Iraq for the last 5 years (6 if you include the run-up to the war), all the bullshit Bush and his cohort served up, I thought we had already won in Iraq.

Saddam was deposed and is dead now.

There are no WMDs in Iraq.

They had elections (which, according to Republicans, are the same thing as democracy).

We had a surge which gave the Iraqis the political space they needed to seek a resolution to their differences. (They didn't take advantage of it, of course.)

Let's face it; there will always be another excuse for the O'Hanlon's of the world to demand another Friedman Unit or three of occupation because we're this close to "winning" in Iraq.

Here's a radical idea: the next president must begin to wean this nation off its petroleum addiction. So long as America continues to be addicted to oil, so long as our nation's prosperity is so tightly linked to the price of a barrel of oil, there will be more wars for oil in the future and that includes under Democratic presidents.

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It must be pointed out again and again that any definition of "win" proponents of occupation use cannot be achieved by our occupying Iraq. It's not gonna happen.

I have to disagree with TPM's position that this study is "important." First of all, it's neither a "Pentagon study" nor a "National Defense University study." It's an occasional paper by an affiliated scholar of the Institute for National Security Studies, which is itself an affiliate of the NDU system. There's nothing "official" in the document, in the sense of constituting an admission or acknowledgment or other kind of smoking gun.

Collins has been working on this paper for at least a year (I saw an early draft), but there's comparatively little in it that is new. Most of the paper, in fact, is dedicated to recommendations for changes to national security decision-making processes and actually has very little to do with Iraq proper -- the bulk of the "Iraq part" itself is centered on a traditional analysis of the inter-agency in planning before and early in the war.

On Iraq, Collins' conclusions, while certainly shared by the progressive blogosphere, are hardly earth-shattering: "our efforts there were designed to enhance U.S. national security, but they have become, at least temporarily, an incubator for terrorism and have emboldened Iran to expand its influence throughout the Middle East." A recent N.I.E. made the first point -- and made it better -- and the notion that Iran is "emboldened" and is now "expand[ing]" would sit well with anyone at the _Weekly Standard_.

In short, this is a quick precis of things most people already know/believe; the lion's share of the document is not about Iraq; and the overall tone of the paper, despite its bold opening statement, is consistent with center-right discourse on the war ("impressive progress in security during the surge," "obvious progress under General David Petraeus").

profburgos.blogspot.com

This report's conclusion is unbelievably disingenuous due to the very foundation upon which it is based. A study from the US Military, for the US Military, using only "official" facts and figures provided/approved by the US Military cannot in any way be objective. Thus this report cannot be taken seriously.

What we have here is a conveniently timed argument for sustaining the "surge" no matter how "well" it may be going. It's just another in a long line of BS defenses for Bush's state of perpetual war.

-AF
Andrew Sullivan Is A Fraud

AF -- I think your comment misses something important in the release of this paper from NDU:

That a former official wrote a paper under the aegis of NDU and called the Iraq operation a 'major debacle' is a big step in the right direction.

It may not be the wholesale rejection of the disastrous policy of the Bush administration that many of us outside prefer, for Joe Collins to write this is brave and bold. And the paper is pretty good,too, with lots of boring wonk-y stuff about how to strengthen the process and systems that failed and allowed President Bush to cause this fiasco.

Well, this report is obviously not that recent, seeing as he claims that there have been no estimates of the accrual costs of the war, showing that he has not been informed that there's a forthcoming book called "The Three Trillion Dollar War" (which uses an intentionally conservative estimate).

Saying "no one" has or hasn't done something can be invalid as a premise. There could be something we don't know:

"No one has calculated the psychopolitical impact of a perceived defeat on the U.S. reputation for power . . . ."

In fact, someone did just that, but used an actual-speculated-defeat of US military power, prompting shame, rage, and frustration. In their view, the psychopolitical impact of a defeat of the US military could prompt the military to do this. It was the author's view that the speculated defeat would cause some to demand swift action to hold those accountable for the military defeat. The reputation of power is one that can quickly evaporate, and re-emerge like a Phoenix with deadly consequences. Some may view the GOP's recklessness in far too narrow a lens. We were supposed to have learned the lessons of Vietnam.

It would have been better to say, "We have no record" or "We are not aware of any evidence that . . ." or "Our research finds no evidence that anyone has ever. . ."

Blood and Treasure

The war in Iraq is a debacle.

We have turned Iraq into an incubator for terrorists.

We have emboldened Iran.

To many, it looks like a war we can’t win.

Sure sounds like the rantings of a liberal pundit or a Democratic Party candidate, doesn’t it?

Only these are the views of the National Defense University- a research branch of the Department of Defense. These are the words of Jim Collins, a senior Pentagon official and key advisor to Donsald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz.

This week, the National Defense University released its report, Choosing War: The Decision to Invade Iraq and its Aftermath. Authored by Collins, it goes into great detail about the series of blunders that led us into the war, the miserable execution of the war, and the dismal prospects for a successful end to the war.

The first line of the report sums things up pretty well:

”Measured in blood and treasure, the war in Iraq has achieved the status of a major war and a major debacle.”

Here are some of the more damning findings of the report:

* ”[O]ur efforts [in Iraq] were designed to enhance U.S. national security, but they have become, at least temporarily, an incubator for terrorism and have emboldened Iran to expand its influence throughout the Middle East.”

* “[T]he war in Iraq and its aftermath have exposed a flawed decision-making process and weak decision execution mechanisms. In planning and executing operations in Iraq, basic organizations, organizational cultures, operational procedures and legislative support systems have all been found wanting and in need of fundamental reform.”

Collins finished his 60-page report with a wonderful and pertinent quote from Winston Churchill:


“Let us learn our lessons. Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent or arrogant Commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations—all take their seats at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war. Always remember, however sure you are that you can easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think that he also had a chance.”

It is good to know there are still some honest, brave and dedicated people in senior positions in the military. There always have been and there always will be.

What is so sad is that the voices of honesty and dignity have long been ignored by the likes of George Bush, Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney and Condoleeza Rice.

When dealing with war and human life, not to listen to reason is tantamount to treason.

Read the full report HERE

www.blogezine.com

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