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Anti-Dem Push-Polling In Oregon Senate Race?
Is Gordon Smith, Oregon's Republican senator who's in a tight reelection race, using push polls to turn voters against his Democratic opponent?
Kay Phillips, of Cottage Grove, Oregon told TPMmuckraker that last night she received a call about the race. After responding to some standard polling questions, including how she intended to vote in the Senate race and the presidential race, Phillips says she was then asked whether her opinion of Jeff Merkley, Smith's Democratic opponent, would change if she knew about tax increases he had supported. The caller then read six instances of tax increases, asking after each one whether she would change her opinion. The call lasted about 5-6 minutes, Phillips said.
At the start of the conversation, Phillips said, the caller told her she was calling with Western Wats. When, at the end of the call, Phillips the caller to repeat her affiliation, the caller spelled out the name, according to Phillips.
It's worth noting that political campaigns sometimes make similar calls to test negative messages, rather than to deceptively sway the opinions of large numbers of voters. Message testing calls are typically -- though not necessarily -- longer than 5-6 minutes, and conducted on a far smaller scale than push polls, since they seek only to target a representative sample of the electorate.
A spokesman for Western Wats, a Utah-based market research firm, confirmed to TPMmuckraker that his firm was conducting calls on the Oregon Senate race, and named NMB Research as the client, would not give additional information, citing a non-disclosure agreement.
Western Wats may ring a bell for TPM readers. Last fall, the New Hampshire Attorney General launched an investigation after voters in that state and Iowa reported receiving calls from the firm, informing them of Mitt Romney's Mormon faith, and praising John McCain's military record. As of August, the investigation was still ongoing.
NMB Research did not immediately return a call for comment. According to campaign disclosure records, the Virginia-based firm was paid $13,000 by the National Republican Campaign Committee to conduct "generic survey" in January.
Calls by TPMmuckraker to Smith's campaign, and to the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which also conducts polling on Senate races, were not immediately returned.
Josh
Zachary
I think the people are so angry that stunts like this are likely to backfire...."we are mad as hell and we are not going to take it any more"!!!...(except for the 20 to 25% terminally stupid, that will vote for more of the McSame) the one thing we must do is make sure your vote counts..the GOP has been purging hundreds of thousands off the voting rolls..check you voter registration in your state..make sure you are able to vote and that your vote will be counted...check it now....I'll wait...!
October 9, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I find this ironic given that Smith wears "magic underpants" i.e., "temple garments." But considering that McCain is using the same tactics and practicioners that took him down in 2000, it's not so surprising that Smith would employ henchment that once used anti-Mormon tactics.
October 9, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most of the nastiest anti-Merkley ads are coming from the Republican Senatorial Committee. Smith and his magic under pants may well be out of the loop on the contracting of this poll.
October 9, 2008 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I got a dog in all of these races. I live in Oregon, am Mormon, and my wife worked at Western Wats for a few weeks in college.
I don't know Smith personally, I know one of his Congressional Aides, and Smith never struck me as that great of a guy in general. Western Wats though, that place is a sweat shop! They have turn over like you wouldn't believe! In a college town, with jobs more scarce than in Zimbabwe, they were always hiring. People got in there, saw how they worked, and usually left the same day. They didn't interview, they had 30 minute training sessions everyday, then they sent people to the phones, if they liked it they stayed, if not they never came back. What a joke, I never would have thought I would ever hear that companies name again! Though, I'm not surprised they have gotten in bed with McCain, Gordon Smith and the NRCC. What a bunch of sleaze bags!
October 9, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn all of them.
October 9, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
As windowpane implied above, it is pretty ironic that Smith would use a firm which previously push-polled with an anti-Mormon message against Romney given that he himself is Mormon.
Win at all cost attitude, I guess...damn any moral concerns. Just like McCain hiring all of the Bush staff that took him down in South Carolina in 2000 with the black love child smears and by putting his mental stability in play.
Hopefully doesn't work for either of them this cycle...
October 9, 2008 6:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doesn't the length of the call suggest that this is more likely to be message-testing than push-polling? Josh often points out that push polls tend to be quick-and-dirty because they're trying to reach as many households as possible. Maybe it is a push poll, and Smith that Smith is spending more than normal on, but I find it unlikely that a push-poller would give their info; more likely, they would simply hang up if the callee asked for specifics.
October 9, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hate to burst everyone's outrage bubble, but this isn't a push poll. This is just a short message testing poll. As someone who works in polling on the Dem side, I can assure you that this is nothing special, and we do it too.
The original survey about Romney that was mentioned earlier was also not a push poll.
There are so many genuinely outrageous things that the Republicans are doing this cycle that deserve our attention, but this just isn't one of them. Everyone tests messages. You only have X dollars to spend and you need to figure out what to highlight.
I can assure you that Merkley's guys are doing exactly the same thing right now. So is Obama the DSCC, the DCCC and everybody else who's trying to win campaigns.
October 9, 2008 6:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only problem is....
Smith's ads telling us all about how Merkley loves to raise taxes have been saturating the airwaves for what seems like forever and it doesn't seem to be helping Smith's numbers.
Why spend the money on a poll to test a message you've already been using that can demonstratably be said to be failing?
October 9, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not necessarily. Without seeing the results of the results of the polling I have no idea for sure, but it could be that the message is extremely effective and that's what's keeping the race competitive rather than Merkley pulling way ahead.
Alternatively they could be retesting the message to see if it's effectiveness has changed in the wake of the financial downturn.
Or it could be an outside group testing its own variation on the same theme.
It could also be a split sample where half of the respondents get the old taxes message and the other half got something new for comparison, but we didn't hear about the other half.
There are lots of potential reasons why someone would test a message that's not necessarily new.
October 9, 2008 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or of course they could just be wasting money. Can't leave that possibility out. Happens all the time in campaigns.
October 9, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, I see, thank you...standard US corporate business model in operation...
If I do happen to get one of these calls (we only have a cell phone in my household), I will be taking down info, etc. etc......
October 9, 2008 9:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Scum sucking pigs is a phrase that falls short of what these people are.
October 9, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
If that is a push-poll that Smith and/or the RNC are paying for they are getting robbed. At that rate they may move the needle before Nov. 4th... 2012.
October 9, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I received this call a few days ago as well; Kay's description is on the nose.
I'm not a wonk on this stuff, so I don't feel qualified to split the hair on messaging vs. push, but it read as slime regardless. But I dislike Smith enough that I'm not the target demo in either case.
October 9, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I recieved a call in Houston regarding the District 7 race where Michael Skelly is making a dent in the campaign of John Culberson, testing negative messages against Skelly. I thought it might be a push poll and hung up; they called during the debate. I will know better next time and try to get more information from the caller. The call touched on the same things as the call though the caller did not say he was from Western Watts. I regret hanging up so soon. I was irritated that they called during the debate.
I wonder how widespread this negative message testing is. Even if they are not push polls, they indicate to me that the GOP is trying hard to go negative as effectively as they can. Texas is so heavily Republican right now, one would think it wouldn't be nessesary.
October 9, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I received and responded to a telephone call from
"SAL associates" or "SAL research" or something like that... claiming no affiliation with any candidate.
It was a pretty straight poll until the final question of the "Regarding the bailout, if you knew that Merkley said YYY, and if you knew that Smith said ZZZ, which candidate would you favor?"
Since YYY and ZZZ were true propositions, the question itself made no sense to me... and my support for Merkley isn't predicated just on his bailout position anyway.
Overall, I was left feeling used.. but I didn't know by whom.
October 10, 2008 12:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I received one of these calls late Wednesday afternoon as well. I don't remember the firm's name but they claimed to be an independent polling firm.
The calls start off with the standard "who would you vote for if the election were held today?" type questions then jump to a question (I'm paraphrasing) "Did you know that Jeff Merkley voted to raise taxes 40+ times? Does this make you:
More likely
somewhat likely
less likely
very unlikely
to vote for Jeff Merkley?"
The remaining questions are similar. I immediately realized that it was a Smith poll so just said "more likely" to everything. May not be a push poll but very definitely a biased one.
October 10, 2008 1:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let me say this one thing.
If negative campaigning didn't work, the politicians would not use it.
The only people who can make negative campaigning "not work" are the voters like you and me.
A great example is going on right now -- there is a backlash against negative comments, this particular week, because of the money crisis. Glad to see that, at least.
So when these "testing" or "push" polls call up, it would be good to just say "I won't cooperate with anything related to negative campaigning". Another approach is to just say "not more, not less" to all the questions.
October 10, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink