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Big GOP Pollster Behind Oregon Calls
So yesterday we reported on a possible push poll being conducted in Oregon by a company called Western Wats. A caller told one Oregon woman we spoke to about tax increases being supported by Democratic Senate candidate Jeff Merkley, then asked whether the information made her less likely to support Merkley -- who's in a tight race with Republican incumbent Gordon Smith.
Western Wats had told us yesterday that its client was NMB Research, who did not return our call. But today, Stacey Jenkins of Western Wats called back to say that, after speaking again with their client, Western Wats had been authorized to tell us that the client is in fact Public Opinion Strategies (POS), a well-known GOP polling firm. POS, Jenkins said, had asked Western Wats yesterday to give us the name NMB Research as the client.
Jenkins could not answer why POS had directed Western Wats to give what appears to be misleading or incomplete information to a news organization.
A representative for POS did not immediately make available to TPMmuckraker anyone who could provide more information, or clarify the relationship between POS and NMB Research, but pledged to do so.
POS is a major GOP polling firm, founded by respected veteran pollsters Bill McInturff, Glen Bolger, and Neil Newhouse. Its involvement may indicate that the call was not part of a push poll, but rather an effort to test negative messages with a sample group of voters, for research purposes -- a possibility we suggested yesterday.
We'll keep you posted as we learn more.
Late Update: Public Opinion Strategies sent the following statement to TPMmuckraker this afternoon:
NMB Research is a separate legal entity with a separate office set up by the members of Public Opinion Strategies. It was established to comply with coordination rules of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act. NMB is retained by a number of clients involved in public policy research, issue advocacy, and independent expenditure campaigns. The establishment of NMB ensures compliance with the coordination rules of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act.Neither Public Opinion Strategies nor NMB Research engages in push polling, voter ID, or GOTV programs.
We've contacted Neil Newhouse, a founder and senior pollster with the firm, to ask specifically about the Oregon call we reported on yesterday, and as always, will keep you posted.
Later Update: Neil Newhouse emails to say: "The poll was done by NMB and included more than 20 questions, including some message testing regarding Jeff Merkley."
He adds: "It was not a push poll, but a standard message-testing survey."
In other words, the call was designed to test which negative message about Merkley voting for tax increases would be most effective with Oregon voters.













Seriously? The acronym is POS? Wow. Republicans really seem cursed this year. Next we'll learn William Ayers was McCain's drinking buddy way back when.
October 10, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
POS - Obviously an abbreviation for "Puttin On the Shits".
October 10, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure the distinction you make between "push poll" and "negative message research" is a correct representation of the situation.
It's way cheaper to just do a small sample and leak the operation in the media to get mass message coverage while the media provides cover saying "this ISN'T a push poll". It's a double whammy, the GOP gets their message out to a broader audience for less cost and gets the media to spread it while essentially saying democrats are overreacting.
October 10, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the goal is different with a push poll. A push poll is meant to operate under the radar, dropping ugly memes directly into voters' minds without anyone able to question it or point out the deception.
If a push poll makes news then people start naming it as such and the average voter perhaps wonders "What's a 'push poll'" and the jig is up.
If you're testing negative messages you don't care who finds out.
October 10, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
"founded by (formerly) respected veteran pollsters Bill McInturff, Glen Bolger, and Neil Newhouse."
October 10, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
This blog does an enormous amount of great stuff, but for some reason, every cycle, it seems to fall into the trope of thinking that negative message testing is a push poll. It's just not at all the same thing.
POS is a respectable pollster and does not conduct push polling. And nothing described has any of the hallmarks of a push poll. This is something that Democratic polling firms do too. I know because I've worked for several.
Please, for the love of god, can we stop ringing the alarm bells every time someone says something not nice about Democratic candidate on the phone? Everyone who works for this blog certainly knows the difference between a push poll and message testing, and raising a stink about this sort of thing really undermines the credibility of all the other really excellent work that TPM does.
October 11, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
POS? As in P. O. S.?
You can't make this stuff up my friends...
October 11, 2008 10:06 PM | Reply | Permalink