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Ex-IMFer On Geithner's Speech: "This Is Not A Plan"

Timothy Geithner's speech laying out the Treasury's plan for bailout 3.0 struck us as devoid of key details that might have settled some of the uncertainty and confusion surrounding the Obama administration's approach.

That's how it struck Simon Johnson, the former chief economist for the IMF, too.

Johnson told TPMmuckraker that the Treasury Secretary's speech laid out some important principles, especially in regard to the need for transparency and accountability. And he said that Geithner's willingness, in contrast to his predecessor, Henry Paulson, to criticize bankers and policy-makers -- implicitly himself -- was also welcome.

But then, said Johnson, the speech went into "Paulson-land," as Geithner said he would take input from the public on the public-private investment fund the Treasury is considering creating.

That lack of specificity, said Johnson, isn't helping restore confidence, pointing to a sharp drop in the market today, especially in the financial sector. "The market is responding to vagueness," said Johnson. "This is not a plan. In the annals of plan-announcing, this is very vague."

The "stress test" that Geithner discussed today, said Johnson, is a promising idea, but again wasn't fully enough fleshed out to know whether it'll be effective. The proposal, used effectively by Sweden in the early 90s, would require banks to lay their cards on the table, allowing the government to make a rough -- and conservative -- valuation of their assets. That would then allow the government to take over those banks that are truly insolvent, rather than continue to try to prop up failing institutions and suffer a "death by a thousand paper cuts."

Johnson had harsh words for the administration's plan, announced late last week, to modestly limit executive compensation. He called it "a joke," and said Geithner had lost credibility because of it. "No one in the markets is buying those [limits] as meaningful."

Geithner will testify before Senate committees this afternoon and tomorrow morning. So we'll see how many more details we get then. But it looks like this is all still a work in progress.


35 Comments

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The reason the market is responding poorly is the banks do not want a stress test. They've been lobbying to abandon mark-to-market, so they can continue to avoid telling their customers and shareholders that they are in fact insolvent. They're fear stricken of having their assets valued.

However, this is exactly what needs to be done. Granted I'd be even harsher in my proposals, but we have to remember Geithner et al. are members of this elite club. This is the first step in the right direction: putting a numerical value on these assets so that they can begin to be traded again. If the treasury dept. rates them higher than the market believes they're worth, it'll self-correct, but no one has been willing to take the time or invest the manpower/dollars into finding out what these bundles are really worth. They've all been too scared.

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That's been my thought for a while now. The banks are overdrawn! *** NON-SUFFICIENT FUNDS!***

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There are two sides to this.

Banks might be hiding weakness, but it's also quite plausible that the current market significantly undervalues assets, misses the near term rising price of such assets. Ordinary stock investing values stock based in part on near term projected earnings changes, why shouldn't banks be allowed to adjust their holdings in some fashion like this?

The main problem I have is that I still don't know what constitutes a "toxic asset". Here is a recent mention of the issue:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/eds/2009/02/is-geithner-already-over-lever.php


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Bottom line: The man who couldn't do his own taxes shouldn't have been trusted to rescue this country from the worse financial crisis in a century.

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I'm no fan of Geithner, but that's a lame comment. Do you actually think he does his own taxes? I'd bet my refund that he doesn't even glance at the paperwork; he pays someone to do it for him.

The real issue is that we need someone who wasn't part of the problem to begin with. There's your competency issue.

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Geithner already testified that he did his own taxes with turbo tax. (I'll let you know where you can forward me your refund.)

That is a mistake in itself, considering his tax bracket and the complexity of the tax code. It's a critical mistake in his judgment, even apart from all the other mistakes he made on his tax form.

And why should the man who cheated on his taxes (for whatever reason) be allowed to head up the Treasury Dept. and the IRS? It's nuts. While at the same time, two other nominees were disqualified for making the same sort of mistakes - and they weren't going to head up the IRS.

Geithner is looking like a younger, less-experienced version of Paulson. Just as corrupt, just as closely tied to Wall Street, but not as experienced at pretending otherwise.

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They've been lobbying to abandon mark-to-market, so they can continue to avoid telling their customers and shareholders that they are in fact insolvent. They're fear stricken of having their assets valued.

Try terrified. The fact is, they ARE insolvent. Using any math and/or arithmetic one wishes. And it this little item gets media attention, they are toast.


C

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Insolvent by the uncertain (and probably undervaluing) mark-to-market method, but not necessarily dead.

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I've seen Meredith Whitney, who's not easy on the banks, say that BofA is solvent (not Citi). And if BofA are solvent, then so are JPM and WFC. So someone's math don't compute like yours...

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In addition to my above comment, without TARP funds, surely BAC and Citi would be insolvent even if their asset/liability valuations are "correct", so maybe that's the meaning...

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It is going to task rigorous honesty to identify the problem before we can solve it. We need to buy the troubled assets so we can work with the imperiled homeowners to keep their house. Since the fre market is unwilling to address these problems of their own accord, we have to take them from these institutions and manage them ourselves. In the end, I think people will be better able to recover with a house then without one and we will be wealthier as a people if we can do it. Yes we can!

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But, Geithner's "stress" test is sure to be kind and gentle enough to avoid a Sweden situation, since he and puppetmaster Larry Summers are adamantly opposed to this.

And, speaking of that, why does everybody keep talking about the "Geithner plan"? There's no way this is primarily his plan.

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Geithner couldn't tell Congress why AIG was given almost $100B and Citi almost the same while Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns failed. He's beholden to many of the Wall Street old guards and frauds like Robert Rubin. He even asked for a "waiver" to add a lobbyist to his staff. He's clearly not qualified from a moral or economic standpoint to be point man for the banking mess.

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Geithner can't pay his taxes. Lehman Brothers collapsed on his watch. NYT reports Obama officials fought tooth-and-nail for stricter Bail out provisions and Geithner prevailed. So, what the heck does Obama see in Geithner that we can't see?

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There is some basic simplicity as many attempt to complicate the obvious. Geithner is Wall St's guy, Paulson was and knew he had only a limited time and made good on being its toadie. In the end Geithner is attempting to put Humpty Dumpty back together again where they have private profits and public losses. In fancy words we now own the banks but to do not have any ownership control.

There the invisible hand of Adam Smith is hard at work in this merging of parallel universes but Adam Smith is also at work on the trading markets as so many are seeking cover. The reason is a stress test ultimately will show wholesale insolvency in the banks. Removing shareholder control will remove their political power and expose what and where that power resides.

The X factor is main street since rumblings are beginning. The GOP is absolutely deaf to main street under the thumb of Wall Street.

Another IMF economist wrote me today:


"...[W]e need to set up an orderly way to rid ourselves of the wasted assets, however, the insiders who hold these assets do not go off into the night lightly. [/blockquote]

They are fighting this inside and out with Geithner on the inside but with the reporting of the political discourse Obama appears to be looking for timing instead of if...
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[continued]"The issue is that the quantitative models that were used (as opposed to the Madoff Ponzis) benefited the entire energy, finance and banking industries, as you well know. The over value and speculation from risk assessment vehicles that passed from entity to entity enriched the elites at the expense of the consumer. Now, the unwinding could be catastrophic. As the president stated (I am paraphrasing) "we cannot let the bad guys fail at the expense of everybody else." The solution being touted of setting up a bad bank for bad assets and insurance for the rest is compelling. After we rid ourselves or insure the assets, we should see financial valuations legislated for change (as per my explanation in the last email) and we can begin to build on "what is value" and how to measure it on an accounting, financial and human economic basis. The paradigm has shifted.[/blockquote]

In the end as we are discussing what the new paradigm this is emerging is incorporating new social, ecological and economic values to the overall on assets and activities. Of course what Johnson has referred to as the Oligarthy and what I refer to as the corporate plutocracy has been opposed to this new paradigm for eras and yet growing and developing under the surface since the '60's. It is the cultural war that really is an socio-economic war on the conscience.

What you are seeing is the dismantling of this in that it is unsustainable.

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"Now, the unwinding could be catastrophic."

This is something which has been on my mind for months now. But I can't seem to get enough factual data to test the hypothesis. :(

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But I can't seem to get enough factual data to test the hypothesis. :(

Stick around. The data will be coming in pretty quick now....

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That is what I thought in late Sept!

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/seashell/2009/02/sept18-congressional-leaders-t.php and see comments

Since then I've found lots more than I knew then in the way of background info, but still not enough facts. So I don't expect that facts will come out. I expect it will be "handled" more or less the same as it was then, only I will be paying a bit more careful and informed attention now, so I might catch a bit here or there.

Transparency shouldn't mean posting stupid spreadsheet info on the web, it should mean that Sec. Geithner summarizes the situation forthrightly and in some detail, up front.

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1. The venom on here is truly unbecoming. The idea that people who enter public service are someone indelibly bought and paid for is a sick cynicism.

2. But that's OK, because there is so much clarity on this site as to exactly what to do to get us out of the worst and most complex financial crisis in our history. Do you realize how much money you all could be making with that knowledge?

Market drops again because... why? Those guys actually know what's going on? Weren't they off in their valuations by about 50% just a few months ago? Truth is they are guessing. Also if Geithner had announced complete wipe-out of shareholders and nationalization, does anyone think the market would have gone up?

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If they don't want us to be cynical, then every penny (or billion) that goes to the banks - FOR FREE - from the government should be lent to the public either for businesses or homes. So the stimulus plan gives the bank more business, as they make money on the interest, and it stimulates the economy by increasing liquidity.

We will continue to be cynical when $2 trillion goes back to the banks with no strings attached. That simple enough for you?

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I get it! So it has to be simple.

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I hear Soros was up 10% last year, and it's known that Goldman Sachs started getting out of mortgage trash (loosely said because I don't knoe the details) almost two years ago. Steve Eisman is another (see Lewis' Portfolio article Dec 2008).

CJR has an article with an interesting line:

"Warnings of risks were met by assurances from Alan Greenspan, then the Federal Reserve chairman, and others that the smart, self-interested people would keep risks at bay. They didn’t, and here we are."

But they did, for themselves and they are sitting pretty. Who are the other "smart self-interested" players? Paulson had no self-interest once he cleared $500,000,000 before going to Treasury, no matter how smart or not. Many "smart self-interested people" kept their own risks at bay, and got massive bonuses for it.

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Well, Geithner worker for the IMF, too, and we know that its unstated purpose was to privatize everything, even water, and to destabilize the rest of the world so the U.S. could suck up its resources. Geithner also worked for Kissinger and Associates and is a Rubin protege. He's as close to being a crook as possible, and while it may be reasonable to hire a hacker to check your computer network's security, the hacker should have a compelling reason to be honest about doing so--meaning having been arrested and working to reduce his prison sentence. Geithner has no such compelling reason.

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Geithner is on the Board of Directors of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS)-- The Central Bank of all the Central Banks -- in Switzerland ...as a permanent Director.

BIS is the clearinghouse for funds coming and going from nation state to nation state. Since 1930- they operate with total immunity to law - any law... local, state, national, or international. They also fly under the radar and are protected from the burdens of any disclosures of any information. No records need be released to anybody for any reason. It could be called the world's largest top secret financial institution. Or the world's most private, secret Money laundering machinery. They work arm in arm with IMF and World Bank.

Lots of information on BIS at The August Review -- a site which tracks globalist activities, most particularly on the economic front.

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Sooner or later, Obama is going to realize that enabling Wall Street's greed and criminal irresponsibility is running at cross-purpose to creating new jobs.

The more money wasted in trying to prop up insolvent banks, the less money available to create new jobs. The more effort put into trying to revive a morally and monetarily bankrupt system of finance, the more time lost in building a more rational and just system.

For two decades, Wall Street has been at war with working people. Every time workers lost their jobs, Wall Street celebrated and stocks went higher. The same thing is still happening right now, with trillions being poured into the financial system while the 'stimulus bill' was just emasculated and loaded down with more tax cuts. Until that changes, nothing has changed.

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We are throwing good money after bad. It's as simple as that. Letting these banks go under, the same banks that won't loan to us anyways and are losing millions each day, hurts us how?

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Depends on how they go under and how far under they go. Chaos doesn't help civilization as we know it.

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It's time for the liberals in the congress to stand up and strongly oppose this President's, not Geithner's, but THIS PRESIDENT'S, bankers-thieves-liars and con-men bailout plan.
This is so clearly a bailout of Wall Street insiders and bankers by one of their own.
HE'S GOING TO GIVE THESE BASTARDS TWO TRILLION DOLLARS TO DO WITH AS THEY PLEASE!
Obama apologists, WAKE UP!
It's become obvious to me that Obama is not what I thought he was.

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I must agree. Just an awful plan by an awful man.

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This is:

High Noon with Gary Cooper.

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If Wall Street hates it, it must be good, since everything they've done over the last 28 years has been proven wrong. The banks are insolvent, and investors know it, so now that the "plan" has nothing in it for them the stocks are tanking. B of A is in fact worthless. So is Citi. So is AIG. No amount of money short of several trillion dollars can save them, we are now finding out that we are not going to see that kind of money, hence, the market tanks.

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What they're really saying is, "This is not the miracle we were hoping for." Ever see how long it takes to clean up a train wreck?

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Galbraith has laid out the correct procedure. The problem is a technical one, not a political one. The bureaucrats must first determine if a bank is solvent. The answer to that question is based upon facts that can be known, if the Treasury would own up to its administrative responsibilities. Once we discover just how many of these banks are insolvent, we will be able to sensibly decide what to do.

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Geithner was head of the Fed in NY while the NY banks were gambling in the derivitives market. He did nothing then about that.
His position on the BIS board just confirms that he is a beaurocrat who reads his masters' wishes well and knows how to tell them what they want to hear.
When the master does not know what to do then he keeps everything vague and menacing so that anything done is due to necessity and no one is responsible for the outcome.
There is no plan except to shell out money to old friends who can best justify that they are in dire straights due to conditions beyond their control.
Get ready to reve up the printing presses, break out the $1000 dollar bill printing plates, and get the engravers working on the 10,000 and 100,000 dollar plates as they will soon be needed.

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