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Climate Skeptic: "I Was Hoping People At EPA Would Pay Attention" To My Work
But it's hard to blame EPA for not paying much attention to the study. And it's more than a little ironic that DC Republicans have chosen its author as their new standard-bearer in the defense of pure science against politics. Because the author, EPA veteran Al Carlin, is an economist, not a climate scientist. EPA says no one at the agency solicited the report. And Carlin appears to have taken up the global warming topic largely as a hobby on his own time. In fact, a NASA climatologist has called the report -- whose existence was first publicized last week by the industry-funded Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) -- "a ragbag collection of un-peer reviewed web pages, an unhealthy dose of sunstroke, a dash of astrology and more cherries than you can poke a cocktail stick at."
Still, the report's author, veteran agency economist Al Carlin, doesn't sound happy with the way things played out. In an interview with TPMmuckraker, Carlin talked of the extraordinary effort he put into the study, and lamented the fact that, over the years, a series of skeptical climate-change reports he has produced -- on his own initiative, he said -- have consistently been overlooked by higher-ups at the agency. "I was hoping that people at EPA would pay attention" to the studies, he said. "I haven't seen too much evidence of that."
Carlin, who said he joined the EPA three months after its founding in 1971, explained that, despite working as an economist for EPA's National Center for Environmental Economics (NCEE), he'd been doing research on issues of climate-change science for the last five or six years on his own initiative. He said that much of this work -- which can be found on his personal website -- advocates an approach to addressing global warming which he calls "stratospheric geo-engineering." "It would actually work, and it would cost three to five orders of magnitude less" than regulating carbon dioxide, he said.
True, the studies he's produced were "not specifically commissioned by the EPA," Carlin conceded. But he said his boss at the agency was aware of them, and added that they've been published, though "not all in academic journals."
The recent controversy first emerged last week, when CEI released emails exchanged between Carlin and his bosses, concerning a report Carlin had authored in response to an EPA document on global warming. Carlin explained to TPMmuckraker that EPA had circulated a draft of an "endangerment finding" on the issue. The finding concluded that global warming is indeed a danger to mankind and should be regulated, and, in keeping with standard procedure, requested feedback from agency staff.
It's unclear whether Carlin was supposed to be a member of the working group of staffers whose input on the document was actively solicited. He says he thought he was, since he was included on emails about the document, and invited to meetings on the issue. But the EPA subsequently said he wasn't.
The topic at hand also may have strayed a bit from his core expertise. Carlin described the report he ultimately produced as "85-90 percent science and 5-10 percent economics." Carlin is an economics PhD, but he described himself as "somewhat unique, in that I have a background in both economics and also in physical sciences," citing an undergraduate degree in physics from the California Institute of Technology. "I've always sort of been on the boundary between science and economics," he said.
Asked whether it was common for EPA staffers to prepare reports on subjects outside the area for which they're officially responsible, Carlin allowed that "it's not normal." But, he said it is done. And he added: "The important thing is from a federal bureaucratic viewpoint, I'm equally well-qualified in both fields."
In any case, Carlin felt strongly when he saw the draft document that it was on weak scientific footing. But he said he only had four days until the deadline to submit comments. "This is not what I normally do," Carlin explained. "I normally write research papers and reports, which take six months to a year. So I was faced with the problem of how to prepare thorough comments within a few days." Ultimately, Carlin -- who declined to give his exact age, but suggested he's around 71 -- pulled out all the stops to produce his study questioning the finding. "I worked very hard," he added.
But Carlin was soon told by a colleague coordinating responses to the draft that there were "reservations" about including Carlin's comments in the finding. Soon afterward, NCEE director Al McGartland informed Carlin that his comments would not be included. McFarland then told Carlin via email not to have any further contact with other EPA staff on the issue of climate change, and not to do any more work on the issue. Those emails and several others were leaked to CEI.
Carlin indicated that the incident was in keeping with his prior experience at the agency, suggesting that his labors of love on global warming have never received the attention they deserve. That was the case, said Carlin, even before the Obama administration took over. "To the best of my knowledge, the Bush administration never followed up on my ideas," he said.
Carlin stressed that he wasn't CEI's source for the emails, saying the first he heard about the story becoming public was when a reporter called him last week asking him to verify the emails. In fact, he said, he was chagrined that a hastily produced draft of his work was being circulated before he had had a chance to polish it up. "I was concerned that, heaven knows, I didn't have time to fix all the problems -- and they still aren't fixed," he said, adding that an updated version of his report had subsequently been put out.
In fact, he said, he'd only been speaking to reporters at all out of a basic belief in openness and transparency. "I could find lots of other things I would rather do," he said. But as a government employee, he added, "I don't think it's appropriate -- for reporters or taxpayers -- to [tell reporters], 'go away.'" Soon after speaking to TPMmuckraker, he appeared on Glenn Beck's show on Fox News, armed with a chart to demonstrate his view that warming isn't happening.
Before hanging up, Carlin made sure to caution that during our interview, he hadn't been speaking for his employer. "The views I expressed are my own, not the EPA's," he said.

















More great reporting, Zach.
July 1, 2009 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was on this issue last weekend, noting not only his lack of credentials, but his attempts to make everything susceptible to cost-benefit analysis, which only looks at short-term costs, of course, but also noting the extremely risky solution he proposed if, in his mind, global warming ever did turn out to be real.
July 3, 2009 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm editor at an academic publishing company, and this is something I see all the time. Old men have a habit of deciding that they know better than the experts of a field in which they have no formal education and draft a manuscript that they believe rights all the wrongs currently on tap. Usually, they are scientists who think they know all the answers to the world's political and economic problems, but I've seen a few economists go off the deep end as well. Given the frequency of the proposals, it appears to be part of the natural aging process. Someone give the man a desk by a window and keep him away from keyboards.
July 1, 2009 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Very interesting comment. Seriously. Thanks for it.
July 1, 2009 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
My wife has been involved at a University for decades and what you say is exactly right, from what she has told me about institutional politics over the years. I am guessing the federal government is not all that different form academia.
July 1, 2009 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, just wanted to point out Fox News' latest declaration. Dems really don't have a super majority, actually barely have 50 votes.
July 1, 2009 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for your remarks. I am IT but have worked in companies that do science for last 15 years. I come across folks in key positions that are - say physicians and also PhD economics. They usually play leadership roles in the company - not actually doing science anymore.
I also work with and am friends with PhD microbiologists, physical chemists, etc. I build computer systems for them. Often I have to learn just enough about what they do to build the right tool.
So anyway - I see what they do and believe me - there are no "dabblers" hanging around making unsolicited suggestions. As I hope everyone is aware.... having a BS in physics means nothing much to practicing physicists unless - like me - you are building them a tool - not doing science. These people are unbelievably knowledgeable about narrow area of their particular field. Earning a relevant Ph.D is just the beginning qualification to be able to be a practicing scientist.
July 1, 2009 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why is Carlin, reportedly "around 71" still working full time at the EPA? I am approaching my sixtieth decade myself and certainly don't want to imply that septuagenarians have nothing to offer. However, aren't there retirement guidelines for federal agencies?
The emails reported, that he was told to basically, "back off" off on a topic, climatology, he is absolutely NOT equally qualified due to his BA in Physics from the 1960s seem quite reasonable. If I was his boss, he certainly would have received a similar email from me.
July 1, 2009 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're approaching 600? Man, what's your secret to longevity?
July 1, 2009 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why, the blood of humans, of course! Perhaps there was a typo, he admitted ruefully.
July 1, 2009 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Where's Van Helsing when you need him?
July 2, 2009 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, he has a BS in physics according to his website, which does require a few more courses in the subject. Without his CV, though, we have no sense in his education regarding environmental and atmospheric physics.
I can't access the articles due to server overload at this point, but I'll speculate that he's doing less research than summarization and interpretation of scientific research.
Probably not a credible source on climatology, but more fluent in the issues than others without experience. I say let him have his 15 minutes, and rebut his studies where warranted.
Faux-News is a bratty entertainment network that summarizes and interprets news. The fact that Carlin is appearing there makes is ridiculous though, and he should be told this REALLY marginalizes his work. If they had any merit, it would be spun out and discarded by this network.
July 1, 2009 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
He has an undergraduate degree in physics. One he likely got some 50 years ago, before all of the modern work in complex dynamics, before all of the work in non-linear systems, before all of the work in cosmology. Sorry, but his degree does not make him close to an expert.
July 1, 2009 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why are you apologizing?
Anyway, via Derek DeVries on Facebook: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/06/bubkes/
Apparently, he really doesn't know what he's talking about... and uses no good science in his work.
July 1, 2009 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
funny, i got that same link via zach roth @ tpm above.
July 1, 2009 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
The federal government used to have mandatory retirement at age 70, because it caught my father in the 1974. But they did away with it shortly thereafter. Unless there have been a change I am unaware of, there has been no fixed mandatory retirement age since then.
There shouldn't be.
July 1, 2009 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ernst Mayr was an active biologist through his 90s and his 100th birthday.
Some scientists can be productive for a very long time.
July 3, 2009 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Since he has actually proposed a solution to Global Warming, I don't think it's accurate to call him a 'Global Warming Skeptic'
Reducing CO2 (and other greenhouses gases) is not the only method addressing climate change proposed by mainstream scientists either. Significantly, reducing particulate polution which has contributing the graying of mountain glaciers worldwide and has thus reduced the earths albido and increased the absorption of heat from the sun. It's widely believed that this contributes about 25% of the net increase in global temperatures.
Also, the method Carlin proposes "stratospheric geo-engineering" or "solar radiation management" has been advocated by the National Academy of Sciences as a method for temporarily curbing the most significant effects of climate change at a reasonable cost, while greenhouse emissions can be implemented. It's not just some screwball idea as this write-up seems to be implying.
To sum up, Carlin is not a "Global Warming Skeptic" and he is advocating one of the solutions that is accepted by the scientific community for addressing climate change. Don't be fooled by the fact that global warming skeptics are using Carlin's research to further their own wrongheaded arguments.
July 1, 2009 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
For more on geo-engineering from least climate change source you can imagine, read this month's Mother Jones story: http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2009/06/should-obama-try-reset-planets-thermostat
July 1, 2009 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Carlin does support action on climate, just different steps, he says:
This Article finds that the emissions reduction approach would be ineffective at solving the dangerous climate change effects of global warming because it would be technically risky, inflexible, extremely expensive, and politically unrealistic, and would probably delay more effective and vastly less expensive measures using solar radiation management.
He does believe in global warming and he believes we have to raise taxes to do something about it, ie, manage solar radiation. He doesn't believe we can reduce CO2 enough to remedy the problem.
It shows, once again, what hypocrites the Republicans are as they believe climate change is a 'hoax' in the words of Rep. Broun (R-Ga).
The fact is no gun carrying Republican would pay one cent more in taxes to save the climate or the world for that matter. They might pay to save their own ass however, but that is not the issue at this point.
They either don't care about anything but themselves, and/or claim any climate disaster would be God's wrath brought on us by gays and abortion doctors.
FOX News and the Bush Base could care less about Carlin's views other than as a talking point to attack Obama.
July 1, 2009 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
The link where Carlin discusses "the dangerous climate change effects of global warming"
http://carlineconomics.googlepages.com/whyadifferent
July 1, 2009 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Quote from the article: "Soon after speaking to TPMmuckraker, he appeared on Glenn Beck's show on Fox News, armed with a chart to demonstrate his view that warming isn't happening.".
Since he says "global warming isn't happening", he's a global warming skeptic. Nice try. Thanks for playing.
July 1, 2009 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Nice try, thanks for playing"? Why the need to be such an a$$hole?
The phrase "...to demonstrate his view that warming isn't happening" was Zach's summary of Carlin's appearance on the Glenn Beck show, not an actual quote. I haven't seen a clip of that appearance, so I don't know if that's an accurate description. If you haven't seen it either, what you've done is use one of Zach's opinions to "prove" that another of Zach's opinions is correct, and then tacked on a patronizing salutation to boot. Quality work, that.
July 1, 2009 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Via Zach in the comments, here is your link
http://www.foxnews.com/search-results/m/23912104/politics-over-science.htm#q=carlin
From the FOX transcript
Kinda sounds denialist to me!
July 1, 2009 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well to be fair, Glen Beck let him show the graphs and then cut off Carlin's analysis when he tried to explain in depth with an "Ok don't ask any more questions".
Hardly the basis to say Carlin doesn't stand behind the quote highlighted above. In fact, Beck seemed to be sure to cut him off before any conclusion was asserted either way. He was pointing to parts of a graph included in the 98 page report, not explaining his overarching view.
July 1, 2009 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's probably because of errors in the transcript itself, but I cannot make heads or tails out of what Carlin is saying there. "If food so called AGW hypothesis is correct." Say what? Is he speaking Klingon, or something?
July 1, 2009 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
"To sum up, Carlin is not a "Global Warming Skeptic..."
A little hard to defend that statement in light of the very end of Zach's article.
"Soon after speaking to TPMmuckraker, he appeared on Glenn Beck's show on Fox News, armed with a chart to demonstrate his view that warming isn't happening."
July 1, 2009 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
KeithL - You're near your sixtieth decade? Congratulations! Heard from Vlad the Impaler lately?
July 1, 2009 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
This article is missing the EPA's side of the story. Was there no one from the EPA willing to make a comment?
July 1, 2009 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Cy Guy -- Here's Carlin on Fox yesterday explaining why, in his view, warming isn't happening. I think that counts as a climate change skeptic.
July 1, 2009 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Forgot link!
http://www.foxnews.com/search-results/m/23912104/politics-over-science.htm#q=carlin
July 1, 2009 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Atlantic mag has an interesting article on one possible human-powered mitigation of global warming:
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200907/climate-engineering
July 1, 2009 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Since he allowed himself, as an employee of the EPA, to be used as a political pawn by Faux News, I can't imagine he will be an employee for long.
July 1, 2009 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't misunderestimate the ability of a GS14 (Carlin's probable government service level after decades in the system) to cling to a government job until he dies or retires voluntarily. For the Feds, it's hard to hire good help and even harder to fire bad help.
July 1, 2009 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
So if global warming "isn't happening" why does he recommend "stratospheric geo-engineering." to solve the non-problem?
July 1, 2009 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is a really excellent question. I expect that he is in mid stage of the standard denialist progression.
Stage 1. Global warming isn't occurring.
Stage 2. It is happening, but it's due to sun activity.
Stage 3. It is happening, but it's nothing to worry about.
Stage 4. It is happening, and might be a problem, but geo-engineering could cheaply take care of it.
Stage 5. It's happening, but it's too expensive to do anything about.
July 1, 2009 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good summation, but you forgot the last one:
OK, global warming is happening, but it's actually a good thing -- polar sea routes opening up, more ice-free places to explore for oil, corn will grow farther north, lower heating bills, etc.
This particular meme has been kicked around some, but it hasn't really caught on that well.
July 1, 2009 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget to add "acres of new oceanfront property" to your list of benefits.
July 1, 2009 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
and less pesky polar bears hanging around that might partake of a moist-but-crunchy human snack.
July 2, 2009 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, I think there is another "D" word appropriate here. This guy seems like he might be in the early stages of dementia. I really felt kind of sad for him -- he may not have anybody who is willing or able to "discourage" him from making a fool of himself. And of course Beck and the other folks at Fox News are such sociopathic schmucks that they don't care about exploiting some elderly, befuddled civil servant to help make their point.
July 1, 2009 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm guessing his new Faux friends are the first people to take his paper very seriously and give him a forum. They may have had discussions on how they could really promote his important ideas if he just gives an inch on these teensy weensy details. For someone who's life's passion has been ignored, possibly for decades, it can be pretty irresistable.
July 1, 2009 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I admit to being a bit older than Carlin admits to, and since I retired quite a long time ago, I have become an expert in many fields. It is amazing how much you learn after retirement. It is only modesty that prevents me from solving many of mankind's problems. (I am retired, you know)
July 1, 2009 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
heh.
modesty. and all the time spent yakking here at tpm.
July 1, 2009 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking of 600-year-old men, why should I care about what Jack Welch and his bimbo trophy wife have to say about anything? "It's everybody's business"? Like the details of their affair?
July 1, 2009 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
What I don't get about deniers is the basic science isn't terribly hard. Unless they deny the greenhouse effect exists, then it stands to reason that if you increase emissions of greenhouse gases, you'll get more greenhouse effect. That simple statement doesn't tell you what the effect of increased temperature will be, we certainly know that the effects of pollution aren't good.
Do they deny the greenhouse effect? Do they deny the increase in greenhouse gases? If not, there's no basis for denial in general. Dispute specific predictions, and whether specific phenomena are caused by global warming, fine, but anthropogenic global warming can't be reasonably disputed.
July 1, 2009 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
They don't deny the greenhouse effect, they just deny that anything that lil' ol' humans do could possibly have any significant effect on the global climate. After all, God controls all that stuff, and how could humankind possibly be more powerful than God? Case closed!
July 1, 2009 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed, that is precisely the problem they have. The Repubs cannot accept that man-made pollution can cause global effects without losing a substantial part of their electoral support. So, they are forced to deny it. The facts are not relevant to them - reelection trumps everything. I suspect that Professor Doctor Carlin, reknown economist/climatologist, falls into the group of voters who would abandon the Repubs if they ever admit that facts matter.
July 1, 2009 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Repugs have gone so far off the tracks that the tracks are no longer in view. Who cares what they say, what "experts" they invent, or what their policy preferences are? They should be ignored until they at least begin to sniff reality.
July 1, 2009 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
OK, the red-faced 600 year old man has a few observations, based on my vast span of existence. Most of the "suggestions" I've heard for essentially, terraforming Planet Earth, using ash or acid clouds, "seeding" the oceans with iron to promote plankton blooms or even "shooting billions of "frisbees" into space to shade the Earth share one, common problem. They tend to be advanced by amateur enthusiasts or business entrepreneurs, as in the case of iron plankton, who are ready to enthusiastically plunge ahead without a serious understanding of possible unintended consequences.
Al Carlin certainly seems to be of this persuasion. The problem is that no one has a good idea of the consequences of their advocacy. Clouds of sulphur (guaranteed to form sulphuric acid) is among the most ludicrous. The oceans are becoming dangerously acidified by carbonic acid already. The rate at which the worlds' oceans, a very finite resource, can absorb CO2 is already slowing. Shading the Earth with orbiting sunscreens ignores the fact that solar wind would inevitably blow them away at an unknown rate. Creating huge new cloud belts would arguably, have a lot more effect on wind and storm patterns than a million butterflies flapping their wings in China.
We simply don't have enough understanding to pursue any of these, several times cheaper alternatives to reducing CO2 output. That they may be written about in magazines does not make them plausible. I, personally believe we're WAY past the tipping point of destructive warming. In addition to STOP DIGGING THE HOLE we've produced in the last century, we DO need to find ways to remove carbon and methane and other gasses from the atmosphere. Whether it's a mechanical or biological process, that seems to be the only way to mitigate our mistakes without danger of even greater catastrophe. We can probably find ways to safely store the 100 million years worth of ancient, once sequestered carbon we've released. We would be fools indeed to tinker with the planet's entire ecosphere because we read about it in a "study" or a magazine somewhere. Back to the original article, Al needs to retire so he can work on saving the planet on his own dime. He should not be able to claim somehow, to be an EPA researcher about anything to do with climatology.
July 1, 2009 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly, we shouldn't as a public go running with any individual study regarding climate change. Also, we shouldn't yet trust a news station to give us good science... Popular science publications often have trouble with editorialization, so I believe there is no hope for a layman's entertainment news to get it right. This man seems like he fancies himself an independent investigator looking for the case cracker regarding climatology, or more specifically he doesn't fancy himself to be a crackpot...
The Conservative denial of global warming and antagonism to taking real measures to curb our effects are fundamentally business related. It's not in the best fiduciary interest of the Far Right Corporation to accept recent claims that they must cut their damage to the environment... they say God gave them the right. Scammers, plain and simple.
Not that you mentioned it, but the willingness of the Republicans to champion untested claims just because it seems rhetorically viable is absurd, and it really will speed up their dissolution.
July 1, 2009 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
You had me going there for awhile, but when you mentioned the billions of frisbies, I saw through your little scam. You are manufacturing them!! Admit it!
By the way, I think we should declare next Saturday a world holiday, hand every living human being on this globe 10 frisbies, and request they all be tossed between 10:00 am and 10:00 pm, PDT. I think that will solve the problem to everyone's satisfaction. (I just broke my promise to myself not to use my expertise in solving world problems.)
July 1, 2009 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm just reminded of people writing to suggest to NASA that they use suction cups to move satellites around in space.
July 1, 2009 6:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Going to an economist about global warming analysis is like asking an accountant to provide and evaluate your cardio stress test.
Even IF one gives Carlin's physics degree full credibility, it is not what he has been doing full-time these past few decades. He's an expert by these standars only.
If:
"Ex" = has been, former spouse.
and
"Spurt" = Drip under pressure
Then:
Ex + Spurt = Expert
He's nothing but a has been and a drip under pressure.
July 1, 2009 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's also wrong to attack him for being an economist. The analysis of economists is critical in this finding - so what makes the participating economists qualified where Carlin is not?
From the EPA website. It would seem that economists are integral to this process. There is no need to malign economist's role to score superficial points. The EPA should just put a media team on the task of answering the damn questions on their merits (or lack thereof) and move on.
July 1, 2009 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Economists are not qualified to chime in on whether climate change is happening in the first place. I'm guessing that they are brought in to assess the economic impact of, say, the flooding of Bangladesh's coastline.
July 3, 2009 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like Carlin might be playing the "over the last year or two" game....but not long term:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/
July 1, 2009 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
As someone who has been following the scientific views on 'greenhouse effect' for 45 years, I am of the opinion that this Dr of economics is way out of his depth. Part of the problem with helping the paradigm bound to climb out of their conventional thinking is the glib language that has come to be employed. I first heard the problem described as the 'greenhouse effect' and I still think that metaphor more accurately describes the process than either 'global warming' or climate change.
But it is a demonstrable fact that human beings, beginning with the Industrial Age, began to alter the composition of the Earth's atmosphere. As the population grew, huge cattle operations made their contribution. The net result of the advance of civilization is that the way in which the sun interacts with Earth's atmosphere is changing such that more of the Sun's energy is persistent in the Climate system, rather than reflecting back out to space.
I have often wondered about the people who seem unwilling or incapable of understanding what has been happening--but as with any system that maintains a balance of activity through self-regulation, at some point increasing the amount of energy from a single input will tip the balance beyond the boundaries of dynamic equilibrium, and the chaotic consequences of that event are non-linear. We are rapidly approaching the tipping point. The fact that the nay sayers will probably die in the ensuing massive population collapse is cold comfort for those of us that have been struggling for decades to reverse the process. It's the wild weather that will ultimately break down the delicate balance of what we call civilization. We saw a harbinger in New Orleans with Katrina. We've seen the aftermath of Cat 5 tornados in Australia. We've seen the desertification process eating land in Kansas like its Northern Africa. Instead of spending so much time and energy trying to persuade others of something that is already overtaking us, why not focus instead on figuring out what can be done to adapt to the inevitable? One thing is for certain: the survivors had better know how to devise traps for small rodents, and learn to like squid, if they want to keep from starving.
July 1, 2009 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your mentioning of Katrina is apt because I think, sadly, that these deniers are going to fair better than the world's poor, who don't have the luxury of doing crackpot science on the interwebs. So, I don't take much satisfaction in knowing a lot of them will survive, and probably spin it as God's solution to overpopulation. Just my opinion, though.
July 1, 2009 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
God created the heaven and earth in six days. The earth is the center of the universe. The seas be full of dragons. The earth is flat. The sun revolves around the earth. A man of the cloth would never be guilty of sexual perversion. Women are intellectually inferior and don't deserve the right to vote. Cigarettes don't cause cancer. Cocaine is not addictive. Bankers, insurance executives and stockbrokers can be trusted. A life-long investment in a retirement fund insures an old age of comfort and dignity. Health Insurance companies put the health of their customers first. America is too virtuous a nation to invade a sovereign foreign country that didn't attack us first. A President and Vice President would never out a covert CIA agent during a time of war or any other time. Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and tried to buy yellow-cake uranium from Niger. American DOES NOT TORTURE!
July 1, 2009 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
When Democratic politicians cheat on their wives, they should resign or face impeachment. When Republican politicians cheat on their wives, it's OK, because god has forgiven them already.
Oh, and gay marriage threatens the institution of marriage itself, but adultery doesn't because shut up that's why. And contraception and sex education are just as evil as abortion. Also.
July 1, 2009 8:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
The *great* thing about Inhofe's demand for a criminal investigation is that it doesn't really matter whether the investigation ever happens or not, because if it never happens then the right can point fingers and claim political interference by the DEMs stopped the investigation. Similarly, if the investigation takes place and finds no wrongdoing on the part of the EPA they can claim political bias. Ain't conspiracy theories great? You get to eat your cake and throw it too!
July 1, 2009 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish that refusal to publish any scientific paper of mine could be responded to with a criminal investigation.
Inhofe talks a lot. People outside the wingnut enclaves don't take him seriously.
July 3, 2009 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
This guy shouldn't be attacked for either being, old, not having a degree. His ideas should be attacked for lack of intellectual rigor and misleading cherry picking of the data. I think the EPA was right in asking him not to get involved in the internal AGW discussions because they looked at his work saw how full of holes it was and decided that it was a waste of time reading anything more from him when they could be reading things written by people with actual expertise on the subject. Expertise not based on some degree they got or position they hold but based on the quality of the analysis they bring to bear on the data.
This guy gains prominence based on his position in the EPA but lost influence based on the lack of quality analysis.
July 1, 2009 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
First of all, what Carlin produced was not a "report" or a "study". It was a memo -- an unsolicited memo commenting on the endangerment finding, from an EPA staffer who was unqualified to comment on that finding.
Second, the real "scandal" is that much of the content of Carlin's memo was plagiarized, verbatim, word-for-word, from ExxonMobil-funded denialist websites, without attribution.
So not only was Carlin's memo full of phony, industry-sponsored lies and pseudoscientific garbage, he knowingly misrepresented the work of others as his own.
For that alone, he deserves to be fired, or perhaps out of compassion for his age and in recognition of his long service, permitted to resign.
July 1, 2009 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
This reminds me of the Act Three story in this episode of This American Life. From the intro to the program:
And from the summary of the Act Three segment, which is really rather poignant:
July 1, 2009 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds like the climate change that's really necessary is in the EPA economics department!
July 1, 2009 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
----- THE END -----
July 1, 2009 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not that I am a fan of Sen Inhofe, but I think the Dems should call his bluff. Bring in Mr. Carlin before a Senate committe, all cameras and media, side-by-side with real scientists, and grill them. If Mr. Carlin is wrong, have the scientists spell out before the entire world, where and why he is wrong. If he is proven to be a charlatan, then FOX REPUBLICAN NEWS and Inhofe, will lose face.
July 1, 2009 7:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
How many of the critics here have actually read the man's work? It is unfortunate that so many would disparage the man because of his age, his education, etc. without actually reading what he has to say. But that seems to be a common approach among those who say there is no scientific debate about anthropogenic global warming. It will be interesting to see how long the consensus will survive if we have another ten years of global cooling while CO2 continues to increase. It is surprising how many advocates refuse to consider that they might, possibly, be mistaken. How accurate have the climate models been in their predictions? This is one of the several questions that Mr. Carlin asks, and offers suggestions on, in his paper.
July 2, 2009 1:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
It certainly isn't surprising to me how many deniers refuse to consider that they might, possibly, be mistaken. In fact that seems to be a requirement - start from a political perspective and then cherry-pick the data to 'prove' your assumption. Sorry, that's not science, that's Reep politics.
July 2, 2009 8:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Carlin's comments parallel those of Bjørn Lomborg. I don't see these guys as much of a problem. For example, the IPCC is revisiting its models for the melting of the Greenland Ice sheet, which is 3-kilometers thick in places, to take into account dynamic effects. Geodesists are looking more closely at the gravitational reshaping of the earth's sphere that results from the melting of Antarctica, making Steven Chu's comments about sea-level rise somewhat off the mark. Moreover, some of the standard macroeconomic models used today came out of MIT, where they had been adopted from thermodynamics. Moreover, it is not like climate researchers and economists cannot understand each others arguments. Often it is not hard to refute economists when they misunderstand the scientists, but they can also bring up, say, cost arguments that scientists may not have considered. For example, poorly designed environmental regulation in the past encouraged industries to off-shore production or pervert the legislative process through lobbying rather than adopt best practices as it was cheaper in the short-run.
July 2, 2009 2:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
tpinlb wrote: "How many of the critics here have actually read the man's work?"
I have read it. It isn't "work". It is garbage. It is nothing but ExxonMobil-funded lies and pseudo-scientific sophistry that he cut-and-pasted verbatim from ideologically-driven denialist websites, without attribution.
tpinlb wrote: "It is unfortunate that so many would disparage the man because of his age, his education, etc. without actually reading what he has to say."
His age is not relevant. His education is relevant, because it shows that he has no actual knowledge of the climate science issues that his memo addressed.
tpinlb wrote: "It will be interesting to see how long the consensus will survive if we have another ten years of global cooling while CO2 continues to increase."
We haven't had "ten years of global cooling". That's a lie. The last decade was the hottest ever recorded.
Like Carlin himself, you are utterly ignorant of the actual science and you are merely regurgitating the scripted talking points that ExxonMobil pays Rush Limbaugh to spoon-feed to weak-minded, ignorant dupes.
July 2, 2009 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
The original article suggests that a faction of conservative Republicans are standing on the public soapbox declaring that Dr. Carlin's anti-global warming opinions have been oppressed by EPA officials.
I have not yet seen any bona fide suggestion in the media that current EPA management is preventing Dr Carlin from publishing his works, or any other EPA employee from publishing theirs.
Dr. Carlin appears to have always had the opportunity to publish in a respected, peer-reviewed journal. I believe the EPA wants employees to publish. If your paper makes it into Nature, that's an achievement.
To get there you must do the research and write the paper. Then the paper must be reviewed. If it passes the review process, and if it is chosen for publication, once it is published, the paper is read by many hundreds of discerning scientists. Some of these readers make comments, review the work, and attempt to replicate findings. An excellent paper will advance our understanding.
Writing papers for peer-reviewed journals sure as heck isn't easy, but very rewarding for people who contribute to the science.
The works in question by Dr. Carlin may not have been intended for publication in peer-reviewed journals, and in fact may not have been ready for critical public review or even casual EPA review.
Part of the problem with the jouncing of the subject of global warming and climate change in the media is that peer-reviewed science journals aren't part of the usual circuit for those who dip their toes into the media. The media echos whatever anyone says, and if they're an elected official or pundit, what they say will be echoed much louder to a bigger audience.
Unfortunately, the media doesn't appear to know how to critically read scientific works like peer-reviewed papers. Heck, the general public doesn't even know where to find these things, much less read them, understand them, review them, and replicate their findings.
There are legitimate problems out there, in data and in conclusions, but the stuff being complained about through the media in this case doesn't even come close to a bona fide issue with respect to human effects on local and regional environment, effects of the calm sun, ozone depletion recovery,...and I think the reason is because some politicians are trying to get people to listen to them by popular means they think is available to them. The media.
Their audience doesn't read peer-reviewed journals. Not very many people do. So hair-splitting findings in papers aren't going to be very interesting. But management restricting an economist from publishing a paper! That may get some traction!
Why? Do they think their audience only cares about the short and medium term effects on their jobs and health? Is that all they care about?
Are these people gaining traction? Probably.
The science has to become more real for people who aren't scientists, so that they have a generally better understanding of Dr. Carlin's situation and can look at the whole situation with a more critical eye and comprehending mind.
July 3, 2009 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was on this issue last weekend, noting not only his lack of credentials, but his attempts to make everything susceptible to cost-benefit analysis, which only looks at short-term costs, of course, but also noting the extremely risky solution he proposed if, in his mind, global warming ever did turn out to be real.
July 3, 2009 11:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
One more detail about CEI - Exxon was bankrolling them until they became so discredited that even Exxon stopped paying them. Check it out:
www.exxonsecrets.org
July 5, 2009 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink