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Iraq Attack Data Hiding: Pentagon Responds
I just got a call from Lt. Col. Mark Ballesteros, a spokesman for the Defense Department. I relayed to him my conversation with the GAO official, who said the Pentagon was refusing to declassify data showing the number of enemy attacks in Iraq for the months of September, October and November.
"That's an interesting accusation from your source," Ballesteros said. As it happens, the Pentagon is releasing a report today at 5 p.m. on "back trends in violence" in Iraq, he informed me.
Does it contain the three-month attack data the Pentagon declined to allow the GAO to include in its report?
Ballesteros paused. "There's information about attacks. Okay?" he replied. "Why don't you wait until 5 o'clock?"
According to another official, the report will be posted to the DoD Web site, at http://www.defenselink.mil.
Comments (156)
Craig Davie wrote on December 18, 2006 4:34 PM:I'll repeat my previously-written opinion that when the next round of base-closings is debated, the Pentagon, the ENTIRE Pentagon, should be a real candidate for first on the list.
Can anyone even guesstimate the un-told trillions of dollars that have been wasted through that department in the past 60-years?
And that does not even address the penchant for 'secrecy' that has become endemic with all who are 'employed' there. It REALLY is past time for a house-cleaning there.
C. Davie
jfaberuiuc wrote on December 18, 2006 4:36 PM:Wait, if the answer to a yes or no question is now classified, we've got a problem. If, in the next two posts, I claim that the number will appear, and then that it won't, I managed to reveal classified information by listing all possible alternatives (doing so for the number of attacks would take a bit longer). I think I'm just going to turn myself into DHS for committing thought crimes.
Jeff Linder wrote on December 18, 2006 4:43 PM:Taken from Brian William's MSNBC Blog (without advance permission - please accept my apologies Brian, I linked the URL)
"Also tonight: a new Pentagon report on the Iraq war will (we know from an advance read) contain some "devastating" findings and facts."
littlesky wrote on December 18, 2006 5:27 PM:It's after 5 and defenselink.mil isn't responding. Kinda like the entire administration.
bluelaw wrote on December 18, 2006 5:47 PM:It's now 5:46 and I don't see the report. Maybe it, too, has been declared top secret, only to be declassified in small portions by Cheney if it can harm some Democrat somewhere.
Paul Turner wrote on December 18, 2006 5:51 PM:It's there, under Special Interest, called "Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq Report." I skimmed it. For a document presumably intended to put the situation in the best light, it's grim.
FelisMajor wrote on December 18, 2006 6:11 PM:Key charts are on page 22.
nymatt wrote on December 18, 2006 6:55 PM:Just skimmed it, but if this is what the Pentagon is putting out, then the reality must be really, really horrible.
Well, we know who the next al-Qaeda leader that is being blamed for the "high-profile" attacks. I'm sure if we kill/capture Abu Ayub al-Masri, the problems will just go away. At least if you follow the report it does say that the Jaysh al-Mahdi militia "..has replaced al-Qaeda in Iraq as the most dangerous accelerant of potentially self-sustaining sectarian violence".
slb wrote on December 18, 2006 6:59 PM:But notice that the data for the period in question is only depicted in the first chart on page 22 as average weekly attacks for the period 12 Aug - 10 Nov, and in the second on that page as average daily casualties for 12 Aug - 10 Nov. Its not the same data that was depicted in the GAO report, which was TOTAL number of attacks broken down by month; hence the refusal of the DoD spokesman to directly answer Justin's question. To answer truthfully, he'd have had to say "No, it's not the same data that the GAO wanted to publish."
The data that is depicted still shows a deteriorating trend, but why do I suspect that using averages over a 3-month period makes them look not quite so devastating?
parrot wrote on December 18, 2006 8:32 PM:Here is the link to the latest report from the DoD site. It has data through mid/early-November 2006. It is interesting to note that it seems to imply that almost 112 brigades in the Iraqi forces are involved in combat operations. If that is an insurgency then it must be an insurgency with standing forces of some significant firepower and reach...
http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/9010Quarterly-Report-20061216.pdf
illyia wrote on December 18, 2006 11:04 PM:Absolutely fabulous work being done around here.
Peter Onigan wrote on December 19, 2006 7:25 AM:Very important.
Please correct me if I'm mistaken, but isn't this the data that the Iraq Study Group's report said was seriously flawed? The report provided an example where the official Pentagon number of violence incidents from a single day was a factor of 10 lower than the number they found. Have yesterday's numbers corrected for these errors? Should I multiply all of yesterday's numbers by a factor of 10?
SparkSpeak wrote on December 19, 2006 9:21 AM:I second your thought Peter. I was thinking about averages when I read that part of the report myself. Initially, I thought "Well, at least they actually put the information in."
But putting in weekly averages makes it much more difficult to validate as the ISG did with their example of under-reporting.
The data is based on incidents filed in a specific reporting database. If the privates on the ground are being told not to report anything into the database...then the numbers will be skewed. Having the dailies would help uncover that skew.
rmwarnick wrote on December 19, 2006 10:49 AM:The Pentagon had a perfect opportunity to release this report late on a Friday just before a long weekend. Instead, we get it on Monday and it makes headlines? I wonder what that means in terms of the DOD-White House dynamic.
melior wrote on December 19, 2006 7:28 PM:Mr. Ballesteros, covering the President's ass does not equate to protecting the national security. Abuse of the classification process is a federal crime. And just following orders is not a defense.
Criminals should be punished to the fullest extent of the law. Otherwise your oath is as worthless as your blackened, shriveled soul.
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