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NIE: The Surge Can't Work
Wow, this is grim. According to the just-released Key Judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, political reconciliation is likely a bridge too far over the next year and a half.
The Sunnis remain "unwilling to accept minority status" and believe the Shiite majority is a stalking horse for Iran. The Shiites remain "deeply insecure" about their hold on power, meaning that the Shiite leadership views U.S.-desired compromises -- on oil, federalism and power-sharing -- as a threat to its position. Perhaps most ominously, the upcoming referendum on the oil-rich, multi-ethnic city of Kirkuk threatens to be explosive, as the Kurds are determined to finally regain full control over the city.
Interestingly, the listed prospects for reversing Iraq's deterioration contradict the NIE's assessment of where things actually stand. For instance, "broader Sunni acceptance of the current political structure and federalism" and "significant concessions by Shia and Kurds" could lead to stability -- but the NIE's earlier section viewed both these events as unlikely. To put this in the realm of the current debate, President Bush's "surge" is designed to give political breathing room to events that the intelligence community formally judges as unrealistic:
...even if violence is diminished, given the current winner-take-all attitude and sectarian animosities infecting the political scene, Iraqi leaders will be hard pressed to achieve sustained political reconciliation in the time frame of this Estimate.
About Iran. This must have been one of the most controversial elements of the estimate: Iraq's neighbors are "not likely to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability because of the self-sustaining character of Iraq's internal sectarian dynamics." There's the expected qualifications that Iran and Syria are up to no good, but this is the major point. In other words, no matter how much Bush wants to lay the blame for the disintegration of Iraq on the meddlesome interference of Iran and Syria, the U.S.-sponsored political process itself -- indeed, the new, U.S.-midwifed Iraqi political order -- itself sows the seeds for the country's destruction. Apparently Bush could attack Iran to his heart's content, and Iraq would still remain inflamed.
Oh, and one final thought: this is just what's unclassified. If past NIEs are any prologue, what remains classified is much, much grimmer than what we see here. More likely than not, this is the most optimistic presentation of the NIE possible. Happy Friday.

Comments (64)
MNPundit wrote on February 2, 2007 11:13 AM:I am amazed the Bushies released this at all.
trifecta wrote on February 2, 2007 11:14 AM:In the light of this, I think perhaps the Senate should reconsider the wording of their resolutions. Another bit of confirmation that we are just heading faster into the abyss should give them pause on pussyfooting with their language and their actions.
Dungheap wrote on February 2, 2007 11:15 AM:What does "hard pressed" mean? They go to great lengths to describe what their judgments mean and then don't use them.
Even if violence is dimished, Iraqi leaders will be "hard pressed" to achieve a political solution.
The Iraqi Security Forces will be "hard pressed" to step up their responsibilities in the next 12-18 months, and particularly to operate against Shia militas.
That's helpful.
hmbnancy wrote on February 2, 2007 11:21 AM:I am not sure of who the wise person was that wrote this but it is certainly applicable to our leader and his believers-
"I saw a light at the end of the tunnel, but it was the train."
TheraP wrote on February 2, 2007 11:29 AM:This is the equivalent of "War of the Roses" (the film) destroying not just the house, but the whole block!
This is a "divorce" with no prospect of reconciliation for generations. (if ever!)
Legalize wrote on February 2, 2007 12:01 PM:"In the light of this, I think perhaps the Senate should reconsider the wording of their resolutions. Another bit of confirmation that we are just heading faster into the abyss should give them pause on pussyfooting with their language and their actions."
I agree entirely. What can the Congress POSSIBLY be afraid of at this point? What more confirmation do they need?
Ben Bochner wrote on February 2, 2007 12:06 PM:You say the classified parts are probably even worse. Do Senators have access to the classified version? Or do they make their judgements based on the unclassified one?
mr. irony wrote on February 2, 2007 12:07 PM:mnpundit: I am amazed the Bushies released this at all.
the dead enders only weapon at this point is...
denial.
bush's base will simply deny the reports existance...
Randy wrote on February 2, 2007 12:11 PM:Ben: Yes, (some) senators have access to the classified versions. I think the members of the Intelligence Committee have the necessary clearances to see intelligence, in order to perform their oversight responsibilities.
JohnN wrote on February 2, 2007 12:16 PM:A quick read doesn't show me anything about the surge. It does say that quick withdrawl will make things even worse.
I'm sure THAT is what will be all over the news media: "IC rejects pullout; Dems wrong again."
ebw wrote on February 2, 2007 12:23 PM:The corrupt Bush regime habitually releases "unpleasant" news on Friday-- and, it is typical of their cynicism that this NIE is released just prior to "Superbowl Sunday" (i.e. when the fewest possible people will be paying attention).
Not only should Congress refuse to fund this illegal and immoral war in Iraq-- but, impeachment proceedings should commence in order to rid ourselves of the corrosive impact of the bloody traitors: Bush, Cheney, Rove, Rice and Gonzales.
Until we put these neo-con arm-chair chicken-hawks out-of-our-misery, then we are condemned to be led like lambs to the slaughter in their upcoming crime: The War on Iran.
dc wrote on February 2, 2007 12:47 PM:It's kind of hard chrerry-picking in the dead of winter.
JohnNordin wrote on February 2, 2007 12:47 PM:Once again the Dems will cave before the fight.
Hillary, running for president of another country says:
"U.S. policy must be clear and unequivocal: We cannot, we should not, we must not permit Iran to build or acquire nuclear weapons," the Democrat told a crowd of Israel supporters. "In dealing with this threat ... no option can be taken off the table."
So, she thinks war with Iran is ok. Disgusting.
db wrote on February 2, 2007 12:52 PM:What does "hard pressed" mean?
It means it ain't gonna happen.
David Shannon wrote on February 2, 2007 12:54 PM:The redacted NIE is interesting for what it does not say.
– It does not say that an increase or surge in troops is one of the possible “developments [that] could reverse the negative trends” in Iraq.
– It does not say that slow or phased withdrawal of troops would worsen the sectarian violence.
What it does say — very clearly — is that “rapid withdrawal” of troops during the term of the estimate (12 to 18 months) would cause problems. It gives no clue regarding what the intelligence community thinks about slower, phased withdrawal or redeployment. Maybe that’s in the unredacted version.
cervantes wrote on February 2, 2007 12:58 PM:Yup, I'd say that's a pretty fair summary. If anybody cares, I have a more detailed discussion, click the homepage.
illlich wrote on February 2, 2007 1:02 PM:the situation in Iraq is more complicated and f**ked up than most people can imagine. too many of the talking heads on radio and tv (and the local bar), have simplified it to the point of inanity. the main reason it IS so f**ked up is because idiots like wolfowitz simplified it from the very beginning
db wrote on February 2, 2007 1:08 PM:Thanks, cervantes. Your analysis was sharper, i thought.
r€nato wrote on February 2, 2007 1:09 PM:there can never be resolution to the violence in Iraq so long as there are a significant number of people who feel they have more to gain from armed conflict and guerrilla warfare, than through negotiation and politics.
The Serbian conflict was brought to resolution because Serbia was much easier to subdue.
In Iraq, you have a country (or a significant portion of it) up for grabs. As well as the oil riches.
There is no way this conflict won't be resolved without lots more violence. So much for the neo-cons' theory of 'creative destruction'; kind of like deciding that I might get a better running car if I throw sand in the crankcase and see what happens.
Hank Kalet wrote on February 2, 2007 1:11 PM:This very short summary is a convoluted mess -- like Iraq -- making it seem as if it is anti-surge, but also stating explicitly that American tropps should stay in Iraq to prevent a deeper descent into the kind of chaos the report says is inevitable. Basically, it is a useless document as released and those of us who want this tragic and deadly foreign policy blunder to end must distance ourselves from the NIE.
ND wrote on February 2, 2007 1:37 PM:It will only take one of several possible events to blow this civil war to another level - a level which would not only eliminate any hope for the surge plan, but also draw-in Iraq's neighbors. For instance, if the milita near Najaf had succeeded in killing Sistani (which was the plan - and they had the forces to pull it off), the resulting backlash would have made the bombing of the Gold Dome look like a frat party. That disaster was only narrowly averted.
Since the surge is going to happen, we better be praying for a whole lot of good luck, seamless leadership, flawless execution and fundamental shift in Iraqi behavior (for the first time on all counts). Without it, we will have carnage on a scale that makes the current situation seem tame. This NIE paints as positive picture as one can right now. I'd like an evaluation of the surge plan by the same folks please.
Diane wrote on February 2, 2007 1:37 PM:So, she thinks war with Iran is ok. Disgusting.
Long Memory wrote on February 2, 2007 1:41 PM:I read the article in today's NY Times and thought, I was on the fence about supporting her and now I will definitely not. What a panderer. Disgusting is precisely the right word.
Whoever wrote that NIE doesn't support the troops, I guess. But the Bushies will never let the facts stand in the way of their story.
bunny99 wrote on February 2, 2007 2:02 PM:If Hilary gets elected, it will be the death of the Democratic party. I wasn't thrilled with her before, but now, fagedaboutit. She's too
Curt wrote on February 2, 2007 2:09 PM:pro free-trade, rather than fair trade, and too pro Israel, rather than a fair hand. She's rolling in dough though, a big problem.
Well, at least we know why the report was delayed for so long: The White House wanted to inject some fairy tale pablum in this strong medicine. The indications of this are in the contradictory nature of the NIE's conclusions ("Uh... yeah, man... we can't find any actual proof that Syria and Iran are destablizing Iraq - but they're bad, man - baaaad!")
There is one benefit to the Bush Administration: As long as we must wring our hands over what to do in Iraq, we'll be too busy to question why Bush and the Neo-Con Mafia started this ugly, deceitful war in the first place.
Dennis wrote on February 2, 2007 2:29 PM:Given the severity of what we are "allowed" to see of the NIE, we really need to worry about what it is that we do not see!
The question is, will Congress show some spind and put its foot down or will it continue to play politics with the lives of American soldiers? If so, then Congress is no better than Bush.
You don't have to be a blind conservative not to see it, just an ignorant one to deny it.
Frederick wrote on February 2, 2007 3:50 PM:With the Libby trial going south, and the war a lost
ck wrote on February 2, 2007 4:19 PM:cause, let the impeachments begin, we've waited long enough.
FYI, the ever-reliable Jonathan Landay and Warren Strobel have an article for McClatchy on U.S. rhetoric on Iran, the Iraq NIE, etc.: http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/16609594.htm
Pompano Pete wrote on February 2, 2007 5:03 PM:Hilary was never my top choice for the Dem nomination, but she is rapidly slipping to the point where I will begin actively opposing her nomination. Would losing the NH primary seriously harm her chances??
tombesh wrote on February 2, 2007 5:36 PM:
MNPundits wrote on February 2, 2007 5:38 PM:NPR coverage this afternoon seemed tilted toward the angle that since the NIE warns against quick withdrawal, the report is bad for Democrats and good for Bush.
"So, she thinks war with Iran is ok. Disgusting."
In the abstract, war with Iran IS okay. In the real world it would be a horrible mistake that will hurt us as badly as the Iranians.
Mooser wrote on February 2, 2007 5:59 PM:If we're going to war, we'll have to raise the taxes!
db wrote on February 2, 2007 6:22 PM:"So, she thinks war with Iran is ok. Disgusting."
Actually, she likely realizes how stupid it is to rattle sabers at Iran at the moment. She's merely bowing to her masters, the good folks at AIPAC. Israel has more clout in electing the US president than any American voter ever will. Just ask that liberal hawk John Edwards.
Likud!
balmy wrote on February 2, 2007 6:52 PM:Remarkable how those same people who vigorously discredit past NIEs (remember WMDs?) are so quick to line up behind this one. Not surprising, though when considering how bereft most liberals are of any intellectual integrity.
SeeDee wrote on February 3, 2007 12:15 AM:I've grown weary in the extreme of that favorite of neocons (and many moderates and libs): "But we can't just leave immediately...Iraq would descend into chaos."
To which I always mutter to myself, "What? Descend into chaos?? What the hell is the present state of affairs in Iraq?"
Given the fanaticism, the centuries-old hatreds (theology-based and otherwise), the endless tribal blood feuds, and customs of the entire region, generally, regardless of WHEN WE LEAVE, sooner or later, a period of savagery will continue to fester in Iraq until another dictator appears on the scene with enough political skill to grasp the reins of power.
And, in the long run, neither Iran nor any other regional power has the ability to make any more progress troward 'stability' than the U.S. has shown.
Get our troops OUT ,NOW.
Mya wrote on February 3, 2007 12:48 PM:Grear site!
stepnw1f wrote on February 3, 2007 1:54 PM:I say we tax all Bush supporters to pay off the debt for this war and with that tax we provide REAL Veteran's benifits to our men and women presently fighting in Iraq, since these so-called supporters never had the stomach to really support their own war of choice.
How many billions have the GOP and Military Industrial Complex made from this war anyways? Disgusting....
Sydney wrote on February 3, 2007 4:41 PM:Howdy Folks. I was wondering if anyone had any details on the Eastern re-union that is being held in Moncton in 2007. Cheers, Dan
Dr. Smith wrote on February 3, 2007 5:29 PM:As we know, everybody writes with an agenda – the purpose of writing to express something in the form of good rhetoric (aka an agenda). This is only a bad thing when information is over simplified to the point where people can be mislead. This article is an example of that bad rhetoric.
(Paragraph 1) The actual report says “Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this Estimate, the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter part of 2006.” Is this what the authors means by grim? Translated – if we lose, they win. Game over.
(P2) The actual passage is “Many Sunni Arabs remain unwilling to accept their minority status, believe the central government is illegitimate and incompetent, and are convinced that Shia dominance will increase Iranian influence over Iraq, in ways that erode the state’s Arab character and increase Sunni repression.” Two points. Do you see the primary word the author left out in order to give his misplaced argument more weight? Yep, the simple word “many.” By leaving “many” out the author misleads readers into believing that ALL Sunni believe this, which is not the case.
(P3) His logical escapes me with any degree of certainty, but I think the author is trying to use contradiction as a form of argument. But this rhetorical cleverness inaccurate and misplaced. The summary (e.g. ... even if violence ....) is an acknowledgement that sustained political reconciliation will take longer than 12-18 months. Nothing more or less. On the other hand, the first part is a recommendation of what addition conditions need to occur that would HELP achieve long term victory. Nobody of any credentials has stated that this condition could not occur. But the bigger point is that the author is conflating two very different points in order to promote a “grimness.” Again, why?
(P4) I should leave this as an exercise for you, but given that I have really grown board of this author, I will address it now in order to move on in life. Yes, the summary says that, in that it Iran is not a MAJOR driver. But what does the next sentence say? Ding, ding, ding (that was the Jeopardy tune). It says, “Nonetheless, Iranian lethal support for select groups of Iraqi Shia militants clearly intensifies the conflict in Iraq.” Iran is acting as a catalyst (minor driver by nature) for the intensity of the activities. Taking Iran out of the picture, should reduce the intensity of the violence, which in turn could lead to condition conducive toward improvement.
(P5) You can always tell a person who doesn’t want to win or has a very weak mind – they use the argument that the good stuff was classified. When one’s argument has been as distorted and misplaced as this one, I would use it to.
Dr. Smith
Dr. Smith wrote on February 3, 2007 5:30 PM:As we know, everybody writes with an agenda – the purpose of writing to express something in the form of good rhetoric (aka an agenda). This is only a bad thing when information is over simplified to the point where people can be mislead. This article is an example of that bad rhetoric.
(Paragraph 1) The actual report says “Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this Estimate, the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter part of 2006.” Is this what the authors means by grim? Translated – if we lose, they win. Game over.
(P2) The actual passage is “Many Sunni Arabs remain unwilling to accept their minority status, believe the central government is illegitimate and incompetent, and are convinced that Shia dominance will increase Iranian influence over Iraq, in ways that erode the state’s Arab character and increase Sunni repression.” Two points. Do you see the primary word the author left out in order to give his misplaced argument more weight? Yep, the simple word “many.” By leaving “many” out the author misleads readers into believing that ALL Sunni believe this, which is not the case.
(P3) His logical escapes me with any degree of certainty, but I think the author is trying to use contradiction as a form of argument. But this rhetorical cleverness inaccurate and misplaced. The summary (e.g. ... even if violence ....) is an acknowledgement that sustained political reconciliation will take longer than 12-18 months. Nothing more or less. On the other hand, the first part is a recommendation of what addition conditions need to occur that would HELP achieve long term victory. Nobody of any credentials has stated that this condition could not occur. But the bigger point is that the author is conflating two very different points in order to promote a “grimness.” Again, why?
(P4) I should leave this as an exercise for you, but given that I have really grown board of this author, I will address it now in order to move on in life. Yes, the summary says that, in that it Iran is not a MAJOR driver. But what does the next sentence say? Ding, ding, ding (that was the Jeopardy tune). It says, “Nonetheless, Iranian lethal support for select groups of Iraqi Shia militants clearly intensifies the conflict in Iraq.” Iran is acting as a catalyst (minor driver by nature) for the intensity of the activities. Taking Iran out of the picture, should reduce the intensity of the violence, which in turn could lead to condition conducive toward improvement.
(P5) You can always tell a person who doesn’t want to win or has a very weak mind – they use the argument that the good stuff was classified. When one’s argument has been as distorted and misplaced as this one, I would use it to.
Dr. Smith
Dr. Smith wrote on February 3, 2007 5:31 PM:As we know, everybody writes with an agenda – the purpose of writing to express something in the form of good rhetoric (aka an agenda). This is only a bad thing when information is over simplified to the point where people can be mislead. This article is an example of that bad rhetoric.
(Paragraph 1) The actual report says “Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this Estimate, the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter part of 2006.” Is this what the authors means by grim? Translated – if we lose, they win. Game over.
(P2) The actual passage is “Many Sunni Arabs remain unwilling to accept their minority status, believe the central government is illegitimate and incompetent, and are convinced that Shia dominance will increase Iranian influence over Iraq, in ways that erode the state’s Arab character and increase Sunni repression.” Two points. Do you see the primary word the author left out in order to give his misplaced argument more weight? Yep, the simple word “many.” By leaving “many” out the author misleads readers into believing that ALL Sunni believe this, which is not the case.
(P3) His logical escapes me with any degree of certainty, but I think the author is trying to use contradiction as a form of argument. But this rhetorical cleverness inaccurate and misplaced. The summary (e.g. ... even if violence ....) is an acknowledgement that sustained political reconciliation will take longer than 12-18 months. Nothing more or less. On the other hand, the first part is a recommendation of what addition conditions need to occur that would HELP achieve long term victory. Nobody of any credentials has stated that this condition could not occur. But the bigger point is that the author is conflating two very different points in order to promote a “grimness.” Again, why?
(P4) I should leave this as an exercise for you, but given that I have really grown board of this author, I will address it now in order to move on in life. Yes, the summary says that, in that it Iran is not a MAJOR driver. But what does the next sentence say? Ding, ding, ding (that was the Jeopardy tune). It says, “Nonetheless, Iranian lethal support for select groups of Iraqi Shia militants clearly intensifies the conflict in Iraq.” Iran is acting as a catalyst (minor driver by nature) for the intensity of the activities. Taking Iran out of the picture, should reduce the intensity of the violence, which in turn could lead to condition conducive toward improvement.
(P5) You can always tell a person who doesn’t want to win or has a very weak mind – they use the argument that the good stuff was classified. When one’s argument has been as distorted and misplaced as this one, I would use it to.
Dr. Smith
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