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State Official: Why We've Got Cold Feet on Surge
As the new Baghdad security plan gets underway -- otherwise known as phase I of the surge -- State and Defense Department officials are again at odds over the division of labor for the "build" end of the "clear, hold and build" strategy. And that's something that, according to the military officers in charge of implementing the surge, could doom it from the start.
In Senate testimony yesterday, it was revealed that while the State Department is creating 350 new positions to support the Iraqi government during the surge, it has a manpower shortfall so severe that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is requesting the U.S. military -- already overburdened -- to fill up to a third of the civilian jobs. Defense Secretary Gates told Senators pronounced himself disappointed by Rice's request; be sure that Rice will have to answer for it in testimony tomorrow before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
And that's because of the broader logic of the surge. Both General David Petraeus and incoming Central Command chief Admiral Bill Fallon stated in their confirmation hearings last month that ultimate success in Iraq depends not on military victory, but on political and economic developments -- the idea that there's a better life for Iraqis who renounce violence. In other words, without sustained support from the State Department and other civilian agencies to improve the daily lives of Iraqis, arguably the most important aspect of the surge will never have a chance.
So why is State having such a hard time sending people to Iraq? I asked a State Department contact for a wingtips-on-the-ground perspective, and here's his candid, off-the-cuff response.
Here's the contact's reply:
There are a number of reasons why State folks are not chomping at the bit for those jobs.1. 350 positions is A LOT. To put into perspective, some HR stats on State Department authorized total numbers at various embassies (these are just State Dept. staffing):
Emb. Cairo: 183
Emb. New Delhi: 203
Emb. Beijing: 249
Emb. Mexico City: 199
Emb. Moscow: 203
Emb. Pretoria: 124Those are the authorized numbers. The actual staffing at those Embassies appears to be 10-15% less. And I've just given you the largest embassies in these regions -- the smaller ones would be even more severly impacted by officers moving out to go to Baghdad. And though the upper brass may disagree, I think that a lot of State folks realize that there are other important diplomatic priorities in addition to Iraq.
2. You ask about incentives. Sure, there are some. But at this point it seems that there's a strong sense that the benefit of serving in Iraq is being watered down. By benefit, I mean promotion, recognition, etc. State folks aren't in it for the money -- and that's the largest benefit of serving in Iraq. State is trying all kinds of other carrots in regards to future assignments & whatnot, but with so many folks serving or having served already, the likelihood of the benefits actually sticking? Seem slim.
3. Of course, there is the fact that State officers are political pragmatists as well. What happens when the administration changes? It may be that even the actual, promised benefits disappear.
4. Why would a seasoned Africa hand with fluent Swahili want to serve in Baghdad? Seems like a funny question, but given the stress context and regional knowhow is given in diplomacy, its important.
5. We all remember this moment. There may be some of us who don't want to be there if it happens again.

Comments (333)
Anonymous wrote on February 7, 2007 11:55 AM:In regards to #5, what was the name of that Operation; "Changing Wind"?
Robin Boerner wrote on February 7, 2007 1:37 PM:In Bush's war we will change it to "Passing Wind"
Ben wrote on February 7, 2007 1:54 PM:In reference to (1), in the Education of Henry Adams, we read that the total staff of the American Embassy in London in 1961 (not just diplomats, but including the clerk and the guard) was 6. So Henry went to London to help his father, the new ambassador, keep Britain from siding with the Confederacy in the Civil War.
Jim Houston wrote on February 7, 2007 1:54 PM:So how much is this additional civilian support going to cost us taxpayers?
J bentley wrote on February 7, 2007 1:57 PM:Funny how things change. Back in the Golden Age in 2003, Rumsfeld, Cheney et al. insisted that State and various other agencies with political and cultural expertise in the Middle East specifically and nation building in general be entirely shut out of post-war planning and operations. Now DOD insists that success and failure hinges on State & Co., but they bitch about having to share what amounts to a drop in the bucket of their own resources.
jeffgee wrote on February 7, 2007 1:58 PM:The giant sucking sound:
cervantes wrote on February 7, 2007 1:59 PM:Iraqqqqqqq
Not to mention you could get killed. Maybe kidnapped first and then tortured to death. That would seem a significant disincentive to me, but what do I know about the foreign service?
jerri wrote on February 7, 2007 2:05 PM:So why is State having such a hard time sending people to Iraq?
First, It is dangerous in Iraq. It just not how much the carrot is worth or the possibility you might not get the carrot. It is if you will live to enjoy the carrot.
Second, State has had almost 4 years to plan and execute its mission in Iraq. Now that its time to do it they don't have the staff??? Didn't State build a big fancy embassy in Iraq??? Is it staffed or not????
R of P wrote on February 7, 2007 2:11 PM:No wonder they're pushing this civilian 'volunteer' corps. How long before it's a draft?
Noam Sane wrote on February 7, 2007 2:27 PM:5. We all remember this moment. There may be some of us who don't want to be there when it happens again.
Corrected the typo.
cervantes wrote on February 7, 2007 2:28 PM:Jerri -- the embassy is staffed alright, but by CIA and military intelligence and probably various kinds of spooks you never heard of. Not diplomats, and definitely not people who head out to Ramadi to do reconstruction work. Which is a preposterous idea anyway.
Doug wrote on February 7, 2007 2:32 PM:Of course being a diplomat was already dangerous. A brief look at the number of foreign service officers killed in the line of duty over the years is pretty sobering.
Further, it's not just the evacuation from South Vietnam that's in people's memories but probably also a little incident in a neighboring country that lasted 444 days.
Anonymous wrote on February 7, 2007 2:44 PM:Not to mention that the Bush Administration is pushing crony appointments into what used to be "career job" only territory, in effect cutting off at the knees the talent who could make a difference in Iraq.
Remember the recent story about Dianne Zeleny, wife of prominent neoconservative Reuel Marc Gerecht? She was leapfrogged over a queue of careerists for a job in beautiful Brussels.
Many careerists put in their time in very tough parts of the world - both to build expertise, but also have the promise of a nicer post.
By giving away all the nice posts to those who are politically connected, the Administration is directly removing the proverbial carrot incentives. Why serve your country if you are only in Guinee, Laos, and Khazakhstan?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/29/AR2006102900710.html?nav=rss_opinion/columns
Patriot wrote on February 7, 2007 2:45 PM:Sounds like Condi is being downright unpatriotic in not contributing to this cause.
the crapture wrote on February 7, 2007 2:48 PM:I figured that if the fine folks in Chimpy's state department were anything like so many of the brave and noble (spell that cheeto-dusted and urine-stained) warbloggers, they were too deeply invested in "fighting the war of ideas here on the homefront" to actually want to go anywhere near the war-zone even though they claim that other than a few minor explosions, the Iraqi population is crapping rainbows and unicorns in adulation of our big adventure
Cranky wrote on February 7, 2007 2:49 PM:One would have to be crazy to volunteer to go serve in Iraq when even the Green Zone is not considered safe anymore. These poor folks would not even have the haven of the Green Zone in some cases. They no longer have bricks of cash to buy their way out of a kidnapping. Given the added fact that the opposition has learned how to get around roadblocks, and security checkpoints, unless one has a deathwish, they would be just plain foolish to go to Iraq. Those that do end up going will probably be young, unexp.,and without the language skills or any skills in the job they are sent to do, and told to wing it. We have been winging this whole thing and what has it gotten us but more and larger failures ?
As for the pic of the last hours in Nam, I could have gone years without that reminder. Having watched it happen, I don't need sarcastic reminders of the way we abandoned those we mislead into helping us. It's one of those unspoken about shames that are rarely spoken about in the right context.
Cranky wrote on February 7, 2007 2:49 PM:One would have to be crazy to volunteer to go serve in Iraq when even the Green Zone is not considered safe anymore. These poor folks would not even have the haven of the Green Zone in some cases. They no longer have bricks of cash to buy their way out of a kidnapping. Given the added fact that the opposition has learned how to get around roadblocks, and security checkpoints, unless one has a deathwish, they would be just plain foolish to go to Iraq. Those that do end up going will probably be young, unexp.,and without the language skills or any skills in the job they are sent to do, and told to wing it. We have been winging this whole thing and what has it gotten us but more and larger failures ?
As for the pic of the last hours in Nam, I could have gone years without that reminder. Having watched it happen, I don't need sarcastic reminders of the way we abandoned those we mislead into helping us. It's one of those unspoken about shames that are rarely spoken about in the right context.
r€nato wrote on February 7, 2007 3:04 PM:RECRUIT THE CHICKENHAWKS!
if they won't volunteer to carry a rifle in The Most Important War Everâ„¢, surely they couldn't object manning a desk in the ultra-safe Green Zone? I mean, Michelle Malkin told me that it's as safe there as it is in Philly or DC.
And these jobs pay pretty well, so Jonah Goldberg has no excuse now.
Antimatter wrote on February 7, 2007 3:32 PM:What about the Heritage Foundation? Let's send some more young Republicans to Iraq. They could be used as IED sniffers if nothing else.
Vanya wrote on February 7, 2007 3:32 PM:To the above poster - Kazakhstan is a second world country with plenty of amenities, and in no way comparable to Laos and Guinea. Any careerist should be happy to be there. Although Astana is certainly a dramatic step-down from Almaty.
Former FSO wrote on February 7, 2007 4:22 PM:As a former Foreign Service Officer, I think we need to ask what these additional 350 people are supposed to do. Is there a mission for them? Inspecting reconstruction efforts?
To put it in perspective, more ambassadors have died in the service of their country in the last 30 years than generals.
As for their willingness to put themselves in harm's way, I challenge the reader's of this blog to take their families to any of the third world countries where FSOs serve and subject them to the illnesses and political instability that is a way of life in those countries.
I left the service in large part because after Powell it was clear that the Foreign Service was no longer needed - we were going back to the Baker years when the Department was run by a few people and everybody else was ignored.
So please, feel free to criticize the administration and the leadership at State (including senior FSOs who have not stood up and said "this is wrong") but respect the sacrifices that your fellow Americans at State have made to try and make your country safer and more respected around the world AGAINST AMAZING ODDS (i.e. President Shrub)!
Thanks.
Susan in Iowa wrote on February 7, 2007 4:59 PM:Regarding the disparaging comments about Chimpy's State Department, there is a difference between a political appointee installed by the Bush administration and a career diplomat who serves his or her country through changes in administration. The latter are invaluable resources, and I do not want to see them sent to Baghdad on a non-mission that may result in them getting killed.
I have the privilege of the acquaintance of a deputy chief of mission in a country that has the potential for causing us real trouble. This person's father gave his entire career to service in foreign countries as well. We should celebrate these brave people, and reward them appropriately, not send them into a war zone with nothing meaningful to do.
Zealot wrote on February 7, 2007 5:43 PM:Well how about Michael Leeden's patriotic daughter and the other upper crust Republican and neo-conservative spawn who so quickly descended on the Provisional Reconstruction Authority? When they were criticized as poltical appointees without the proper experience or language skills, the wingers rose to their defense as patriotic altruistic young folk. Well, here's their chance to really prove it.
Nat DeWitt wrote on February 7, 2007 7:04 PM:They don't 350 additional officers for ordinary duties, that's for sure -- you may recall that Jerry Bremer passed the American proconsul's baton to the U.S. ambassador when the CPA was wound up, and that means nation-building. Using the Petraeus/Smedley Butler counterinsurgency manual, the political officers go in just behind the troops out in the field once an area has been cleared and held.
Even the Army and the CIA would have trouble finding 350 people qualified for this sort of duty -- we probably don't have 350 fluent Arabic speakers in the whole State Department.
Former FSO wrote on February 7, 2007 10:18 PM:I think that's it's important to differentiate
There are senior officers in the state departement, both foreign service and civil service who are aiding and abetting Shrub's behaviour.
When was the last time you heard a senior officer with a guaranteed pension stand up and say "I resign because I can no longer support this policy"? They know that we're screwing up, but they've become such company drones that they are unable to stand up for what's right.
Is it right that they should have to end their careers early to send that message? Will they go hungry? Abosolutely not.
To me this is the same cowardice that we saw in the mainstream media after 9/11 when they all slavishly supported the administration and the same cowardice we saw from the Democrats in congress.
When one of my bosses in the foreign service once suggested to me that the existential threat to the united states, I responded that for me the existential threat to the united states was our response. This country is not built on a place or a particular set of people - it's about an idea and that idea is being trashed by the crowd in power because they're afraid.
There are no good decisions made out of fear.
So to make clear, we should not distinguish between political and career officers but between those who actively support the bad behaviour or stand idly when they could make a difference and those who simply don't have a say in policy (most of the Department these days).
Anonymous wrote on February 7, 2007 10:39 PM:It takes a long time to hire and train a new FSO. You can't just go out and hire 350 people. They have to tested, vetted, trained etc.
Former FSO wrote on February 7, 2007 11:04 PM:If you did it at warp speed, you might be able to do it in a year.
Keep in mind that a lot of the security officers who might have done the vetting are over in Iraq protecting our people.
Has anybody asked why they need another 350 officers?
State (and AID that seems to be included in this) have six functions:
Political - and how much of this can you really do if you're trapped in the green zone
Economic - we won't need to do much of this because there is no economy
Public Diplomacy - Let's try not to laugh (or should I say cry) too hard at the idea that an FSO is somehow going to be heard over the sound of people being killed daily.
Consular - Protecting american citizens, passports and adjudicating visas - at this point I'm guessing there's a lot of "sorry, we can't issue you a visa" being said.
Administration and Security - protecting our people, getting them the logistics they need and human resources. Self explanatory.
Assistance (which has many different functions, but I'm lumping for simplicities sake) - And what CAN we say about this? I keep hearing the administration claiming that things are getting better but I don't see any concrete evidence.
So just WHAT are the 350 additional officers going to do - a hearts and minds program? I'm going to have to resist laughing at that.
section9 wrote on February 7, 2007 11:05 PM:Fact is, a lot of State people resent the fact that only now is DOD sounding the alarm for help. Under Rumsfeld, even while Condi was at State, the Department was pretty much shut out of Iraqi operations. It will take time for Rice to find people to send from State DC to Baghdad.
Well, speaking as a Republican visitor to this board, and taking note of the fact that Rummy completely screwed us here (believe me, you have no idea. OTOH, he was a twisted genius who forced the Army, a hidebound institution, into the 21st Century...), methinks that Condi will pull a rabbit out of her hat.
Contractors. You heard it here first, people. Contractors. State is about to be overrun by SEALS and the Force Recon.
Blackwater guys. They're all over the place. Arkin's Avengers. Guys in cammies and lizard hats who have these well paying, but dead-end jobs guarding some local Iraqi version of a Yakuza boss from a really bad afternoon Japanese TV drama. You watch Condi start staffing up and filling the gap with Blackwater guys.
And why not? The guys who are still there and alive are the ones who made it through the two Fallujah battles in 2004 alive. They know the terrain. They know how to drive through Baghdad. They've got the Pidgin Arabic down. They've got the AK with the Paratrooper stock under the seat. Once their tour is done, they've got an in with the government AND they can double dip as Genuine Diplomats (plus the retirement bennies they get from DOD).
Gates wants to run his mouth bitching all day about how hard he's got it? It was his Department that put us here in the first place. State offered sound advice, and the entire Pentagon told them to go pound sand. His complaints ring a tad hollow now that Condi can't pull people out of the hat: she can't exactly ORDER career Wingtip guys to become IED bait (as illustrated by the poster above who listed the Embassies and their "on paper" complements). After all, they'll always have Paris.
But the Contractors? You watch. They'll show up. First as "diplomatic security", then as "fixers". You heard it here first.
Thinking Person wrote on February 8, 2007 2:24 AM:The poster named "former FSO" asked: When was the last time you heard a senior officer with a guaranteed pension stand up and say "I resign because I can no longer support this policy"?
In February 2003 John Brady Keisling publicly resigned his position as political counselor of the U. S. Embassy in Athens to protest the impending invasion of Iraq. Gave up his seniority and his pension.
Yellow Dog wrote on February 8, 2007 11:26 AM:His book: "Diplomacy Lessons-Realism for an Unloved Superpower."
I had almost given up hope of seeing this point until section9 caught it.
In the indispensable Fiasco, Thomas Ricks recounts the State Department staffer who, in late 2002, was the only person at a Pentagon Iraq War planning meeting who knew anything about Iraq, and he knew it all. His thick, organized binder was the result of years of research, investigation and planning by the State Department.
Needless to say, this State Department expert was thrown out of the planning group and all his research and knowledge deliberately ignored.
If I were a State Department staffer who had spent years in the '90s learning everything there was to know about Iraq, only to be dismissed and ignored by the Pentagon and White House, who went on to create an irreversible catastrophe that could have been completely avoided if only they'd listened to me and other State Department experts, I know what I'd say when they came crawling back begging me to clean up their stinking, disgusting mess:
Fuck Off and Die.
Serving FSO wrote on February 8, 2007 11:31 AM:Let me explain the Foreign Service culture. Our job is to give our superiors (the Secretary and ultimately the President) our best advice, and then to carry out the policies they decide upon. If the President and Secretary could not depend upon their diplomatic corps to execute their policies to the best of its ability, what would be the alternative?
We have had resignations over policy. Some FSOs have resigned over Iraq policy. Earlier, some FSOs resigned because they believed we were too slow to intervene in the Balkans. I respect their acting on their beliefs. I also respect career Foreign Service Officers who do their professional best to implement policies with which they are not in complete agreement. The threshold for what reaches the point of being a resignation issue is for individuals to decide. I wouldn't second-guess them.
The U.S. is best served by having a professional, career Foreign Service that is candid in its advice and then faithful in performing its duties. On the whole, I think that is what we have. By the way, I have volunteered for duty in Iraq.
Serving FSO
dasher wrote on February 8, 2007 12:13 PM:I fear that section9 has hit it square on the nose: contractors, especially and particularly Blackwater types, will be tapped to fill the short fall (there will, alas, not be nearly enough 'Serving FSO' types).
And, as usual, this is very, very bad news.
Jimmy D wrote on February 8, 2007 2:07 PM:Of the 350 odd jobs that fall under the surge Phase II-IV some are: vets (healing animals) rural electrical assistance, water purification and the like that FSO simply never perform and have absolutely no training in. Positions that should be filled by USAID, Dept. of Agriculture and contractors, not FSOs.
FSO2 wrote on February 8, 2007 4:53 PM:As another FSO, I concur with the scary-Blackwater scenario... but here's my concern: At what stage does Secretary Rice become so humilated by the insinuations from DoD that State is shirking duty that she decides, for purely visual reasons, to add to the directed assignments that are already underway?
Former FSO wrote on February 8, 2007 5:28 PM:A factual point. I would argue that Kiesling was hardly a senior level FSO. At a mid-sized embassy like Athens, senior starts at the DCM.
I wonder - does that mean that there were no senior officers who believed that secret renditions and other errors on our part were not some of the most counter-productive actions we could take to fight the war for the hearts and minds of people in the middle east?
There comes a time when your conscience should make you decide that you can no longer support not only a failed policy, but a one that is failing and injuring our country. Are we saying that only one FSO felt that way? I point my criticizm at senior FSOs because they are by definition bullet-proof (i.e. they have a pension and can go whenever they want). They can stand up and argue loudly within the organization for what they believe and, in the extreme, send the message by leaving the organization. I have not heard of that happening - other than Kiesling.
To return to the original drift of this post - any attacks on FSOs and even civil service employees for not wanting to serve in Iraq are, in my opinion, unfair. People who join the military sign up with the understanding that they will go off and fight wars. People who join the Foreign Service agree to go to dangerous places where they can make a difference by interacting with the populations and bring their families. The Foreign Service (and some military), puts its families in very difficult environments on a daily basis. They accept that because that was what they signed up for.
Don't get me wrong - there are certainly some chicken-hawks in the organization, but that's kind of to be expected when you look at what they select for. I think we should be impressed at how many have taken the offer to go.
I actually like war zones where I can make a difference. I just don't see a chance in hell of even talking to real Iraqis under the current situation. I imagine it might be kind of hard to develop raport if you drive up to someone's house or office to talk about their issues and you come with a military patrol and helicopters hovering overhead. It's just not credible to believe that real change can be effected in that environment.
And the bottom line - there are way too many FSOs in Iraq already. I haven't seen anybody explain why we need any more - am I missing something?
To my former colleagues - I wish you all the best and I hope to see more of your "interventions" on this site!
DaElement wrote on February 9, 2007 5:30 PM:It is hard to send people to Iraq because maybe lots of people feel that, the entire thing is not going anywhere. So to send people to a war that is not going anywhere is very difficult for people to want go over their. I'm sure there are lots of inside information that we are not getting that may help for some people to want to go help.
DaElement wrote on February 9, 2007 5:31 PM:It is hard to send people to Iraq because maybe lots of people feel that, the entire thing is not going anywhere. So to send people to a war that is not going anywhere is very difficult for people to want go over their. I'm sure there are lots of inside information that we are not getting that may help for some people to want to go help.
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