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The Surge Is (Or Might Not At All Be) Working
Is the surge working? It's complicated.
This morning, I interviewed the chief of police for western Baghdad, a one-star general named Saleh Alany. General Saleh, as he's known to the American military police who partner with him, is a hard man, a former Republican Guard officer who parts his hair severely and equates democracy with chaos. He had just wrapped up an extended discourse about how Iraqis needed a refresher course in how to obey authority with some optimistic notes about security returning to Baghdad when a massive boom erupted. Within moments, Saleh's men called him with a report: an Iraqi Army checkpoint less than a kilometer away had been hit with an RPG.
A young U.S. MP lieutenant, Anthony Howell, turned to me and shook his head. That was no RPG. RPG's don't let out a deafening sound from that distance. That was a VBIED -- a car bomb. Almost instantly, the PKC machine guns on the roof of the Karkh Directorate Police Headquarters opened fire, although whom the gunners were shooting at was unclear.
That's the New Baghdad Security Plan for you. The MP Company I embedded with this week is almost uniformly enthusiastic about the diminished number of sectarian murders discovered in its west Baghdad sector. Over the last 45 days -- roughly since the time Prime Minister Maliki put the plan into effect -- the number of bodies showing up at the typical dumping grounds have dwindled into the single digits, and for the first time in memory, some days pass without any being discovered at all. Even better, during my ride-alongs and patrols with the company, their Humvees didn't even take small arms fire. Nearly everywhere in western Baghdad is a maze of cement jersey barriers and concertina wire, with Iraqi Army, Police and National Police units manning ubiquitous checkpoints. "Having momentum on your side is important," says Captain Rob McNellis, the commander of the 57th MP Company, "and that's what we feel right now."
And yet the larger bombings persist. East of the Tigris, in Sadr City, the renewed presence of U.S. forces have been as yet unable to stop the sort of car bombs that exploded near Saleh's office this morning. Last week, during the end of the Ashura holiday, 18 Shiites were killed in the volatile neighborhood. As I made my way to the Green Zone press center this afternoon, the chief military spokesman, Major General William Caldwell IV, stated that the persistence of "high-profile car bombs" would receive invigorated U.S. attention. U.S. and Iraqi troops are sparing no precautions -- I witnessed drivers pulled over at numerous checkpoints due to even vague suspicions of potential car bombs; and during one of my ride-alongs, the Iraqi Police discovered and disabled a VBIED thanks to a tip -- but commanders are quick to invoke the military cliché that the enemy has a vote.
How he's exercising it is the biggest question. Some of the frequent IED hot spots that the 57th has encountered in Baghdad have gone suddenly IED-free. That's a more ominous sign than a hopeful one: it suggests not that the insurgents feel sustained pressure, but that they're biding their time, observing new patterns and adapting. "If I was an insurgent commander, I'd be taking my time to lay low and adjust," McNellis says.
For now, at least, the early successes trumpeted by Defense Secretary Bob Gates and other administration officials have some merit to them. But there's also a phony-war feel to them. Over the next few weeks, it'll become clearer as to whether the U.S. and the Iraqi security forces actually have the initiative in Baghdad -- and, perhaps, beyond -- or whether they're living on the insurgents' borrowed time. McNellis's point about the importance of perceived momentum is crucial. Demonstrating control is vital to counterinsurgency. That's why yesterday, General David Petraeus and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki took an unexpected trip to the Sunni stronghold of Ramadi. But a different story was found beneath the veneer: Petraeus walked through the city's downtown, while the Shiite prime minister was content to stay on a U.S. military base. He surely didn't want to hear the sound that Saleh heard this morning.
Comments (28)
sholom wrote on March 15, 2007 9:45 AM:A more broad question, I think, is this: while violence is (at least temporarily, but we should hope for longer) going down in Baghdad, what about the rest of the country.
In other words, is the surge (along with moving other troops to Baghdad) making a dent, or are we playing whack-a-mole? Anyone know?
DallasNE wrote on March 15, 2007 9:50 AM:I would like to think that we could find some way to stop the killing. This report makes it seem that it might finally be happening. Then I pull up the icasualities.org site and find the following data.
"Iraqi Security Forces and Civilian Deaths
Period Total
Mar-07 751
Feb-07 1531
Jan-07 1802
Dec-06 1752
Nov-06 1864
Oct-06 1539
Sep-06 3539
Aug-06 2966
Jul-06 1280
Jun-06 870
May-06 1119
Apr-06 1009
Mar-06 1092
Feb-06 846
Jan-06 779"
One would think that the period over period numbers for February and March would confirm the progress cited in the report, but it doesn't. So, what gives? March 2007 is less than a half-month so it extends out to over 1,500. I see no confirmation that the "surge" is having an impact. The facts just seem to constantly get in the way of these rosey reports.
JohnW wrote on March 15, 2007 10:16 AM:I was beating my wife one night when someone called the cops; when the cops were on my front steps I stopped beating her.
JUST WAIT TILL THOSE COPS LEAVE!
Phil A. wrote on March 15, 2007 10:36 AM:Exactly DallasNE! I always thought that idea that we even announced a 'surge' calls into question the strategy. It sounds just as stupid as announcing a withdrawal as is so often criticized by war supporters. The insurgents will just hold off until we leave.
vox clamantis in red state wrote on March 15, 2007 10:40 AM:Just the slightest suggestion the surge is succeeding is sure to send the bushies poll stats soaring and satisfy his supporters no matter how many more suicidal kamikaze car bombers splinter themselves, the stores and shops and souls on the streets of the cities in iraq.
Richard L. Adlof wrote on March 15, 2007 10:43 AM:Historically in the region, lolls are re-arming periods. I hope I'm wrong on this.
RichB wrote on March 15, 2007 10:47 AM:Phil A is being optimistic. The insurgents/etc. cannot allow the impression that they hid out. They need to be able to trumpet that they drove out the Americans. For now, their tactics will adapt. Once withdrawal begins, their attacks will increase.
TomEG wrote on March 15, 2007 11:24 AM:"Once withdrawal begins, their attacks will increase."
If this is so, for the insurgents' sake the attacks shouldn't wait until withdrawal, since there is to be no withdrawal, nor will there be.
db wrote on March 15, 2007 11:25 AM:The "surge" was a PR event in its conception and it remains one in execution. It was intended to buy time and stave off reckoning with the reality that Bush's entire iraq adventure is a failure of historic proportions.
Just like we had fake WMD north, east and west of Baghdad to justify the invasion, we will have fake PR about how the surge is working to justify bush's refusal to admit he has failed completely in everything we were told would be accomplished through the invasion.
grandpa john wrote on March 15, 2007 11:52 AM:Hmmm, as best I recall my history, guerilla warfare or insurgencies are characterized by the fact that they do NOT meet superior strength headon but rather transfer their operations to areas where their opponents have less strength. So is this the case in Iraq, what is happening in the other areas away from Bagdad. It would seem to me that the only way a surge can truly work is to have enough troops to surge the whole country, not just one area
JoshB wrote on March 15, 2007 12:00 PM:I'd like to think - Publicity stunt or not that things are getting better.
looj wrote on March 15, 2007 12:08 PM:thanks for being over there and giving us an idea of how things are transpiring. keep up the good work.
Jason wrote on March 15, 2007 12:47 PM:So they're finding fewer bodies in west Baghdad. Is that really progress, or is it something else? Is there nobody left to kill, all the sectarian opponents either dead or moved away to "friendlier" neighborhoods? Or have these guys just found their Chris and Snoop? The numbers DallasNE relates don't give me much hope...
Anonymous wrote on March 15, 2007 12:55 PM:It really makes no difference if the so-called "surge" has lessened the amount of violence in Baghdad. As long as we are there, there will be violence. The insurgents will regroup and start the violence up again the moment we cut the number of troops in Baghdad. The solution? Keep large numbers of US troops in Iraq from now to kingdom come (meanwhile bankrupting the US). Or, how about this solution. Take the irritant out of the situation by removing our troops. Then the people of Iraq will be forced to work out their differences amongst themselves. And the people in Iraq will go after the outside terrorists (al Queda) and kick them out of their country.
Are you really willing to continue to bankrupt this country in order to occupy another country? Do you really think that we are doing any good there?
Think about it...Pretend that Iraq has invaded our country and is occupying it. Would you sit back and say "Ok, as long as you stay and defend my neighborhood I'm fine with your occupying my country and stealing our resources and jobs. Or would you join the resistance and fight to drive the occupiers out of our country.
DeanieM wrote on March 15, 2007 1:02 PM:The fact that Petraeus has already said he is going to have to send several thousand troops to the Diyala area FROM BAGHDAD to suppress violence that has erupted there, and to establish a "ring" around Baghdad to deal with the expansion of violence to the outer areas proves to me that no matter how quiet things may be in Baghdad, the so-called "surge" is not working. It is truly a game of "whack-a-mole."
CSP wrote on March 15, 2007 1:06 PM:Mostly I want to say - Keep yourself as safe as you can. Fascinating report. I don't know what to think. I do hope against hope that something good might come out of this "surge". Hope can be a cheat sometimes though. I do look forward to more reports.
Anonymous wrote on March 15, 2007 3:21 PM:The rule is: Do more of the same and you get more of the same result. Forget that at your peril. I am becoming dismayed at the Democrats' timidty and inability to do what they were elected to do. Aren't you? Call or write your rep and Senator to get them moving.
hibiscus wrote on March 15, 2007 4:04 PM:not trying to rain on anything but the conditions this article shows for "working" or "not working" -- they're silly. how many times have we leveled fallujah so far? cuz during the time it was flat and smoking, it was totally under control and the operation was a success. such a success that we did an encore.
i'm sick of this. how is it that our military patrols create political opportunities? we had opportunities to end this, we turned them down, we keep turning them down. the political opportunities our people want are deals which are amenable to our side. that's as plain as my nose. and it makes it look like our troops are there to keep us in the deal.
Cliff wrote on March 15, 2007 4:42 PM:General Petraeus The Great White Hope
Most all the Republican Senators that appear on the floor during this debate on Iraj seem to glorify General Petraeus. I doubt if the general is comfortable with this and all those good generals that worked so hard in Iraj must feel like bastards at a family reunion. A lot of the people I have spoken to blame the civilian leadership and republican majority for this debacle that is Iraj. Hopefully General Petraeus can save them.
Kevin Hayden wrote on March 16, 2007 7:23 AM:I wonder what Sunni families are feeling. It's clear that al-Sistani and al-Sadr are doing the Shia containment in Shia neighborhoods. But it's also clear in Petraeus' remarks, that without power-sharing solutions within the government, all they've got is a temporary pause.
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