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Today's Must Read
One of the best defenses the U.S. has against terrorism is the resistance of American Muslims to radicalization. Al-Qaeda can -- and does -- attempt to place sleeper cells inside the U.S., but its resource-intensive task would be made much easier if the nation's Muslims, estimated at between three and six million, embraced Osama bin Laden's contentions of an irreconcilable conflict between the west and "true" Islam. Instead, owing largely to comparative socio-economic opportunity and the U.S.'s high rates of religiosity, U.S. Muslims are overwhelmingly more likely to work with the FBI than with al-Qaeda. But a report set to be released today by the NYPD warns that one of the U.S.'s best defenses against terrorism is in danger of eroding.
As previewed by ABC News, the report warns of over two dozen population "clusters" in the northeastern U.S. "on a path" to terrorism.
In a report to be made public today, New York City Police Commissioner Ray Kelly concludes the 9/ll attacks were an "anomaly" and the most serious terror threat to the country comes from clusters of "unremarkable" individuals who are on a path that could lead to homegrown terror.The report by the NYPD intelligence division, "Radicalization in the West and the Homegrown Threat," plots "the trajectory of radicalization" and tracks the path of a non-radicalized individual to an individual with the willingness to commit an act of terror, multiple sources say.
"The threat is real; this is not some bogey man we are creating here. There are individuals who are proselytizing, inciting angry young men to go down this path," said [Rand Corporation terrorism expert Brian] Jenkins, who reviewed and contributed to the NYPD report.
It's not entirely clear what a "cluster" means here. ABC reports that the NYPD identifies specific "mosques, bookstores, cafes, prisons and flop houses" as incubators of jihadism, but the 90-page report seems to attempt to craft a psychological and sociological understanding of the conditions that may set American Muslims on a radical path. That's a responsible approach: understanding and addressing pre-radicalizing behavior is key to preventing terrorist attacks. But an over-broad or insufficiently specific profile risks targeting innocents and diverting law-enforcement resources from an actual threat.
"It is completely un-American; it goes against everything we stand for," said Kareem Shora, executive director of the American Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee. "We do not want to alienate any segment of any community, and by using that language you are actually aiding the extremists in their recruiting efforts."
Homeland security experts, it should be noted, consider the NYPD a sophisticated counterterrorist organization, especially under the former leadership of Michael Sheehan, an ex-State Department counterterror chief. During Sheehan's post-9/11 tenure, which ended in 2005, the NYPD partnered with law enforcement and intelligence services around the world to intercept and prevent terrorist plots, instead of waiting for the FBI or Department of Homeland Security to feed it information the feds considered pertinent.
As ABC notes, however, the recent National Intelligence Estimate on terrorism focused far more on threats to the U.S. germinating abroad, calling the threat of homegrown jihadism "not likely to be as severe as it is in Europe." But if the NYPD is concentrating on what a potential homegrown threat might look like, rather than warning about one that's ready to strike right now, the NYPD may not entirely disagree.
Given the immense task of protecting a city of over 8 million people, the NYPD can be expected to lean forward in its assessment of how severe the threat is. The model employed by the cops has the burden of plucking out anonymous and probably law-abiding citizens before they set themselves on a path for radicalism.
The dense, 90-page NYPD analysis is the nation's first full analysis of the potential for increased homegrown terror in the United States and the first to develop a matrix on which to plot the course of "unremarkable" people as they move toward the potential for violent action, multiple persons familiar with the report told ABC News.Months in the drafting, the report makes use of a novel "cluster" model to determine where on the path from preradicalized and self-identification to indoctrination and jihad an individual and immediate peer group may be. As such, it is a valuable tool for assessing individuals that come to law enforcement's attention and in making cogent arguments in court cases, sources who reviewed the report's drafts told ABC News.
A recent analysis in New Jersey used a predictive model employed by the U.K. -- put together after homegrown jihadism struck on July 7, 2005 -- to identify prisons, schools and the internet as places where radicalization "appears to occur." If that model isn't too generic, the last season of The Sopranos might have been on to something.
Update: Here's the NYPD report.
Comments (40)
PeeJ wrote on August 15, 2007 9:47 AM:Hmmmm....go figure. Didn't we go through this with the African American community in the sixties? Can we never learn not to lump all people together for the actions of a few? Will we ever treat others with the respect and humanity they deserve just as we desire? You call someone a nasty name, and that's what you get. You call someone sir, and you get respect. Open your eyes and especially your hearts.
Peace!
paul wrote on August 15, 2007 9:58 AM:PJ
The idea sounds sensible, the enormous question is what you do with the model. Addressing the reasons some of the folks in these purported jihadist hotbeds have for alienation, for example, might be better than putting them all under suspician and tossing them on no-fly lists. (I also have to wonder just a little bit, in light of recent articles about the use of well-paid informers in the muslim community, how many of these "clusters" trace their origin to law-enforcement operations.)
jri wrote on August 15, 2007 9:59 AM:Jesus, what a crock off self justifying shit. Why don't they just put electronic ear tags on all of us and be done with it. Their pet contractors get paid and the cops can keep tabs on everybody! Jobs all around!
jri wrote on August 15, 2007 10:02 AM:One other thing: White radical right-wingers have a better track record off perpetrating terroristic plots in the US than do any other segment. How do they fit into this proto-fascist model?
Jake D. wrote on August 15, 2007 10:10 AM:So, the terrorists who stabbed people on planes and crashed into building would have been O.K. if they had just gotten to Las Vegas more?
dr2chase wrote on August 15, 2007 10:12 AM:Yeah, it would be both good sense and good PR to also keep an eye on the white/"Christian" radicals, and publish a report on that, too.
Sacanagem wrote on August 15, 2007 10:13 AM:I call bullsh*t. There are Muslim groups in the UK and northern Europe openly calling for overthrow of the government. The only local groups I see openly calling for overthrow of the government are Christian survivalist groups.
Code word: "attack". Heh.
Steve5117 wrote on August 15, 2007 10:13 AM:What about members of the College Republicans? Haven't we seen what members of this group have done with the positions they were given within the government?
I posit that more Americans have suffered due to the activities of appointees of the Bush Administration than did due to 9-11. America will be paying for the "terror" this administration has brought to us for many years to come.
cervantes wrote on August 15, 2007 10:27 AM:Note that whatever the true extent of the danger discussed in this report, "fighting them over there" in Iraq is not helpful.
Jack Flash wrote on August 15, 2007 10:35 AM:It's easy to dismiss this. But it was only a few years ago that two Muslims were arrested in downtown Brooklyn, in a small apartment just a mile from where I was living, with bags full of explosives and shrapnel. According to the (Muslim) roommate who turned them in, they were planning to set them off in Brooklyn's busiest subway/train station just a few blocks from their apartment the next day.
You have to be for, not against, prudent actions to head off such attacks. Just being against such actions as "racist" or "right wing" makes you morally complicit in any subsequent terrorist act. Political correctness is just another form of fascism; and in the end all fascisms reinforce each other. Please avoid that trap.
psmith wrote on August 15, 2007 10:50 AM:Some of you guy sound just as silly as the knee-jerk commenters on right wing blogs, except in the other direction.
Sheesh. You have no way to appraise the NYPD report but through the synopsis above, which is all of 7 paragraphs long.
I haven't read it either. But come on. You can't "call bullshit" on something you're completely ignorant about just because you don't want to believe it. That's powerline level thinking.
Topsight wrote on August 15, 2007 11:04 AM:Let's be careful not to substitute technology for street sense. Profiling has been used by marketers for years to identify those more likely to buy. But before we over generalize, let's ask a few of the surviving Japanese American internees what they think about clusters.
Ellen wrote on August 15, 2007 11:14 AM:Violence is contagious. We have a hate-monger-in-chief who has directly caused the death of hundreds of thousands in Iraq. Now, he says he did it because of terrorism, but we all know he did it for oil and war profits. Meanwhile, fundies in this country call for crusade.
To act as though there is not a dark place in all of us that would respond to these emotional and psychological pressures is naive.
The truth is, the radicals are all around us, just wearing different uniforms. If you don't push their buttons, you are probably okay. But, what if you push the right button, like Waco? You get Tim McVeigh. GW Bush is intentionally pushing buttons. That is why leaders are supposed to seek Solomon-like behavior, because the ripples of their actions are so powerful. GW Bush is messianic, not wise.
I pray for peace, I pray for more peacemakers, and I pray for sanity when the world is going crazy.
Frebnedzo wrote on August 15, 2007 11:23 AM:Tim McVeigh fit the profile too, and so did Rudy whatsisface who hid in the Appalachians among all those other people who fit the profile...
But I'm sure the NYPD article also mentions other radical clusters that aren't Muslim and orders them according to risk or some-such.
JEP wrote on August 15, 2007 11:24 AM:"Violence is contagious."
So is Peace, once it takes hold...
Look up Mairead Corrigan Maguire, her Nobel was for Peace, and she identified some of the core factors that would eventually mollify the Irish penchant for political violence, disguised as mutual religious intolerance...
Violence itself is the enemy, whoever commits it.
ANd respondiong to violence with violence is nothing more than a trans-cultural version of vendetta. War is obsolete, except for the weapon's industry and their political puppets.
Considering who is currently "in power", at the helm of the "lone world superpower", I guess that pretty much says it all.
186 wrote on August 15, 2007 11:34 AM:The left is pathetic always trying to cover the insanity of radical Islam with the actions of one twisted white guy in Oklahoma.
Jo wrote on August 15, 2007 11:50 AM:The left is a mass of cowering, blame America submissive tools.
Here we go again. The fear-purveyors haven't had much success of late with BIG "blow-ups" so -change of tactics, niggle and wiggle around in trying to scare people about watching the neighborhood. And notice the "mention" of internet as a possible danger. Wake up - the danger is losing our freedom, our love and tolerance of one another - the biggest losses of all.
Thank you, JEP, for your comments. So true, so valuable to remember, to include in our lives.
illlich wrote on August 15, 2007 11:50 AM:I am willing to believe the NYPD may have some valid arguments here, but it all seems too similar to the P.K. Dick story "The Minority Report"-- in other words "pre-crime"-- they are GOING to be guilty at some point, or even better (in keeping with the sci-fi theme here), the punch line of "12 Monkeys"-- guy goes back in time to prevent something from happening, and inadvertently CAUSES it to happen, or as they said: "The threat is real; this is not some bogey man we are creating here...." Well. . . these unremarkable individuals, what does the NYPD plan to do about them? When an innocent individual is arrested, or brought in for questioning, or even put under surveillance, they get radicalized a lot faster, because suddenly everything the imams have been saying about the US looks true. I'm sure more muslims were radicalized by the invasion of Iraq than were convinced of the US's benevolence.
Jane wrote on August 15, 2007 11:55 AM:For some people, it is politically correct not to be politically correct. I call it PC squared.
Since classifications of groups of people as dangerous have been used throughout our history in both fascist and racist fashions it is simply foolish to ignore the likelihood that even the best intended or best designed marketing study of who is likey to buy into the Al Qaeda rhetoric can be miused. To recognize this reality no more makes you complicit that noting that not all Germans were Nazis duirng WWII makes you a Brown Shirt. That argument is simply an error of logic.
To note that the cure can kill does not deny that there is a problem.
AnneW wrote on August 15, 2007 11:59 AM:"The left is a mass of cowering, blame America submissive tools."
Submissive? We are not the ones willing to give up all of our privacy because some big, scary terrorist across the seas might be plotting against us. We are not the ones who think that the government should be able to do everything in private, keep everything secret, because of the threats that may or may not be facing us. We still believe the Constitution needs defending, not just the 2nd Amendment.
Cowering? It's not the left that is putting our troops in harm's way "over there" in the hope that we won't face tribal warlords "over here". At the same time claiming that the threat is everywhere.
As for McVeigh, I wouldn't have been willing to throw away the Constitution in order to prevent another Oklahoma City from occuring and would have been appalled if McVeigh had not been given a trial and had been tortured to give up names of any fellow "conspirators". He, like most people, would give up anyone to be "disappeared" to make the torture stop, and I don't want innocent people that he had dealings with to have been harmed.
I'm an American, I want America to do the right thing.
CH wrote on August 15, 2007 12:32 PM:Has anyone commenting here read the report? It may all be racist or bigoted hogwash, but the notion that any and all forms of domestic intelligence, profiling, etc. are off limits because they can be spun as an attack on our rights is absurd.
This is one reason why this stuff is so often kept secret. I'm not advocating secrecy in this case, but the notion that at some point the totally screwed up mess that Bush has fomented in the Middle East would start to radicalize small factions of American Muslims (and others) is not that far-fetched. There are crazies and pissed off people everywhere, and while it raises all sorts of legitimate concerns, to dismiss just the notion of such an analysis as having no value is irresponsible.
Virginia Dem wrote on August 15, 2007 12:34 PM:So, is this the second wave of erosion in the constitution? Its almost like we are being told, "We have the tools to protect you from foreign terrorists, but now we need the tools to protect you from yourselves. Here is a perfectly good threat to demonstrate that. The GOOD Americans will have nothing to worry about. Only the BAD Americans will be punished. We promise."
Code Word: like, as in, I don't like this.
Mooser wrote on August 15, 2007 1:16 PM:He didn't really say "angry young men" did he?
I can just hear Irony gasping, "Et tu Bluto?
Ellen wrote on August 15, 2007 1:20 PM:The point of my earlier post is precisely that I believe GW Bush is radicalizing Muslims, here there and everywhere. We have a basic response to threats against us--plowshares to swords.
I believe criminals should be treated like criminals. If there are people plotting to harm others, whether they are messianic Christians or Muslims, remove them from society in a just and human way.
By default, we respond to our lower nature. It is by choice and sheer force of will that we make ourselves to refrain from paranoia and vengeance while we rigorously apply the rule of law.
Which is why it is so important to impeach the GW Bush administration. The example of using intellect over impulse to solve our problems must be applied across the board, even to our national leaders and heroes. That is why we let Clinton be impeached.
We do not have to impeach GW Bush while he is in office--although that would be best. If we cannot do it now, we can prosecute him once he leaves office. A truth finding commission to punish GW Bush and his cohort for their crimes is a moral imperative.
Bill wrote on August 15, 2007 1:56 PM:Mr. Ackerman, or others: do you happen to have a link/cite to either the New Jersey or the UK report?
Marc in Denver wrote on August 15, 2007 2:46 PM:Started reading the report, and, early on, although it does specifically mention Islam, and only Salafi Islam at that (which would only relate to quasi-, crypto-, and proto-al Qaeda type Islamic terrorism and would completely ignore the Shi'a analog), the factors (at least in the first few pages) could easily be generalized to include, among others, Christian Identity and neo-Nazi types. But that is only one person's opinion, and I have barely started the report....
Uncle_Meat wrote on August 15, 2007 3:05 PM:Sounds like a set up to me...
"One alleged radiation hot spot on Manhattan's east side has the potential for becoming a political hot spot: A strong radiation spike from the area of the Israeli Embassy. Officials would not comment on why they thought that particular area allegedly showed such a stunning peak in radiation."
Google "radiation hotspot - israeli embassy"
A speculative muslim terrorist cell gets coverage, while a verifiable fact that a radiation hotspot at a country's embassy that is known for pulling off false flag operations gets nary a peep.
Will this be running on the MSM 24/7?
Tim Fuller wrote on August 15, 2007 3:58 PM:One other thing: White radical right-wingers have a better track record off perpetrating terroristic plots in the US than do any other segment. How do they fit into this proto-fascist model?
--------
Good question. Here's how I see it. The Bush Regime seems hell-bent on MAKING SURE that the VAST MAJORITY of non-violent Muslims everywhere rise up against us. They're not being that subtle about it are they? They just labeled an Iranian GOVERNMENT MILITARY branch as terrorists. Those Kremlim flights close to US territory? Is the Kremlin Air Force the next on the terrorist hit list? The one terrorist that seems to go on like the Everready bunny...Osama been forgotten, still frolics in a Paki mountain meadow, while Obama is chastened for rhetoric that targets him.
The proven terrorists, those you mention that have a long history of anti-government violence? The type of people who favor a conservative constitution and a bevy of firepower? They were well represented in those rabid anti-immigrant groups who went batshit over the border issue before hopping in their pickup trucks and chowing down at LaTaco Casa. Low wage Republicans are more than happy to exploit without recompence or remorse. What the real problem will be is the likely violent resistence movement that will grow from the suburbs of the soccer moms once/if/when the draft gets reinstated. America will soon find that the surveillance technology that is being sold to watch the terrorists will be put to use against them. Antiwar will soon equal pro terrorist. Watch for the September rollout.
Enjoy.
johnnydoughey wrote on August 15, 2007 4:00 PM:Let me see...
My parents and I immigrated from:
pkafin wrote on August 15, 2007 4:42 PM:Iraq, Iran, Bolivia, Afghanistan, Kosevo, Djibouti, Egypt, Korea, Diego Garcia, Phillipines, Thailand, Singapore, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Turkey, Serbia, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Tajikistan
Qatar, Bahrain, Cuba, Honduras, Ecuador, Sudan, Russia, Columbia Venezuela, Syria, Macedonia, Croatia, Peru, Haiti, Liberia, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Mozambique, Timor, Guinea, Eritrea, China, Indonesia, Kenya, Cambodia, Congo, Zaire, Somalia, Rwanda, Panama, Grenada, Chad, Lebanon, Vietnam, Korea....
We have no relatives, ancestors or friends who died violently while the US military was interfer... I mean helping us there.
Hey Uncle Meat,
Usually, when one puts quotes around something, a citation is offered. Where is this odd, unrelated piece of information coming from? Why are you afraid to mention it's source?
Providing a suggestion to google something is not the same as being willing to cite your quotation. Why show academic cowardice by means of innuendo?
If you have an opinion, please share it. If you have a quote, please cite it.
pkafin wrote on August 15, 2007 5:06 PM:Oh Uncle Meat,
So, I have the time, today, to check out your poorly cited quote about the Israeli embassy.
What did I find? I found an article in indymedia writen by the tremendously courageous author named "x". That's right "x". I also found that the article is an uncited copy of an article by actual authors who included all of the same information except this nugget about the Israeli embassy. So, this author "x" copied someone else's article, inserted a paragraph about the Israeli embassy, and sent it in anonymously to indymedia.
My question is this: in using google (and in suggesting we do the same) did you not actually understand the source and nature of the quote you offered? You could have found the same critique of your quote as I did. Did you just assume that no one would look into it? Did you just assume, because of preconceived biases, that it must be true?
I don't, honestly, know whether the Israeli embassy showed up as radioactive. I do know, from the actual article (by actual authors)that 80 spots in New York appeared radioactive. Why then, are you especially concerned about just this one supposed location?
I suggest, as I did a few postings ago that you cite your sources. If you are unable or unwilling to do so, you should question why that is. If the reason is that the information is already discredited, and you just wish to hide that fact, I further suggest that you not include it in your comments at all.
What do you think?
Uncle Meat is an anti-Semite wrote on August 15, 2007 5:14 PM:Uncle Meat, the Israeli embassy is in Washington, you moron, not New York City.
bjobotts wrote on August 15, 2007 5:20 PM:here come the "Moonies", run for your lives. Are they kidding with this prelude to radicalization?
This is like Eddie Murphy on SNL where he made himself up as a white guy and rode the bus. And just when the last "Negro" got off, an all white party broke loose where everybody gave each other money etc. LOL
Are we going to begin looking at all Muslims with that kind of suspicion, that as soon as they are out of our sight they start whipping out the weapons and maps. If the NYPD are thinking this way they should keep it to themselves and not throw it out over national TV. I mean WTF?
pkafin wrote on August 15, 2007 5:20 PM:The author named "Uncle Meat is an anti-Semite" is correct, there is no Israeli embassy in New York. There is an Israeli consulate in New York City. There is an Israeli embassy in Washington DC.
I'd like to hear from Uncle Meat about whether he stands by his comments. And, if he does not, what he will do in the future to avoid the willful spreading of mis-information.
What do you say Uncle Meat?
Greg Kane wrote on August 15, 2007 5:29 PM:Wow - this is real news! If it can be confirmed that they were out to screw Americans, our government has found the first "offical" terrorist cluster f**k!
Good going guys! I feel better already.
kilo wrote on August 15, 2007 5:36 PM:let's just kill everyone who isn't some washed-up football player turn republican
johnnydoughey wrote on August 15, 2007 7:34 PM:Gee...
Secret surveillance on its own people...
Attacking countries without cause...
putting citizens in isolation for years without trials...
sending suspects to foreign countries to be tortured...
military occupation of other countries...
It's sad, but these kinds of actions have ALWAYS brought about repercussions from within nations. Notice that, although Bush consistently states to us the need to protect the country from Al-Qaeda, his actions show he is not the least bit concerned about militants coming into the country (no fence). He is, however, concerned about uprisings from within our borders, as he should be. Thus... more domestic spying, more government law enforcement officers, ease of holding folks without attornies or trials...
This is what usually occurs to a country that is changing to an authoritarian state...
Uncle_Meat wrote on August 15, 2007 11:31 PM:Hey, if I'm wrong, I will admit it. If you are able to discredit the story I suggested you look up, great.
The reason I brought it up is that Israel has been known to use false flag attacks to trick two countries into war.
If (and I sincerely hope not) a dirty bomb were to go off in the near future, everyone is already preconditioned to blame this "terrorist cell" that has been unearthed in New York.
Finally, how on earth can anything I posted be construed as "anti-semitic"?
Ranger Riccardo wrote on August 16, 2007 6:24 AM:I think it's those cluster pockets of Canadians that represent the greatest danger
With those cute bunny noses and rosey red cheeks they stand to completely trick us into a lager stuper by hypnotizing us with campfire aromas and snow ... lord help us when that happens cause who can say what they would do then. eh?
security code is nail
JohnE wrote on August 16, 2007 7:50 AM:Christ you know it aint easy
The report is either all good or all bad? Seems to me there are valid scary points, and at the same time threats to liberty, and at the same time authors who found an avenue to possibly acquire more power and more money. Seems like a lot of readers want an either/or situation when most likely innocents will be caught in the net and innocents will be saved from harm. Another point; incidents of homegrown rightwing and leftwing acts of terrorism are rare but if you're going to rant about them, also look at the "how to" sites on the Internet and see what your kids are up to. Bombs, zip guns, crime tutorials. A minor element maybe but should be included. And there's no ideology there, just terrorism for the hell of it.