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Petraeus: My Statistics Are Correct
General Petraeus brought out his data today, saying that two U.S. intelligence agencies back his methodology. He did not explain -- yet -- what that methodology is, but said that it has remained consistent over at least a year, which would predate Petraeus' arrival in Iraq.
Petraeus' information appears to measure attacks week by week. He didn't give comparisons to overall attacks in 2006, but opted instead to measure from discrete points in 2006: December for measures of overall violence; June 2006 for IED violence; October 2006 for attacks in Anbar province.
We'll have Petraeus' slides for you to see shortly.
Update: You can see the slides here.
Update: You can read Petraeus' opening remarks here.
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Comments (29)
ahem wrote on September 10, 2007 2:15 PM:Can you get a cap of the graph showing planned drawdowns, with *question marks* next to the starred reductions in troops after March 2008?
What a load of bullshit.
??? wrote on September 10, 2007 2:26 PM:I found it interesting that in slide 2 of his presentation there isn't a single arrow indicating a flow of support from Saudi Arabia. Aren't over half of the foreign fighters captured and killed in Iraq from Saudi Arabia? Do you think any congress critter will care to notice this?
illlich wrote on September 10, 2007 2:29 PM:well. . . he said his numbers were correct, I'm satisfied, let the bloodbath continue.
TheraP wrote on September 10, 2007 2:31 PM:oooh, what pretty pictures! did the pictures come first and then the math was developed to fit the pretty pictures? I'm reminded of karl rove having "the numbers."
Well, ok. Then why stay? Let's leave on a high note!
Mafalda Hopkirk wrote on September 10, 2007 2:33 PM:9 American soldiers - killed in Iraq today. But no picture of that, I bet
Michael wrote on September 10, 2007 2:37 PM:We will be stuck in this quagmire until January 09. Betray us gave the repukes political cover, which was his job. More wasted lives, both American and Iraqi. How do these criminals sleep at night? I don't get it.
Why on earth did the dems schedule these hearings around September 11. Are they morons or what? Give me a break.
the truth will out wrote on September 10, 2007 2:38 PM:"two intelligence agencies" have signed off on the statistics:
1) someone was tortured into agreeing
2) the department of "intelligent design" agreed
3) there were others, but that's confidential
moondancer wrote on September 10, 2007 2:39 PM:He'll get back to us with the methodology... when the cameras are off and people are back to watching american idol.
Anonymous wrote on September 10, 2007 2:42 PM:"two intelligence agencies" have signed off on the statistics:
1) a statistician was tortured into agreeing
2) dept of "intelligent design" agreed
3) there were others, but that's confidential
tbhull wrote on September 10, 2007 2:43 PM:Why do we pretend that this matters?
The good christian general could say to Congress that black is white, night ois day, north is south, etc. and the Congress would hem and haw before ultimately giving the war machine what it wants.
I know, no answers provided, to which I agree with. But answers will not be found pretending the dems offer any other bullshit other than that continually heaped upon us by BushCo and the supplicant sycophants in the republican party. This ridiculous and worthless war will continue indefinitely.
One party two faces, with each constantly sucking the cock of the war machine.
TheraP wrote on September 10, 2007 2:48 PM:Can't somebody come up with a "paint by numbers" parody here?
jerii wrote on September 10, 2007 2:49 PM:You have to admit the bar graphs are very colorful.
The first map...seems to imply that AQI works closely with Shia. That is so lame. Plus please note the long border with Saudia Arabia and how there is no support of anything from SA to the sunnis in Iraq...that is even lamer.
Weapons and caches pictures...are those the same ones he lost track of???
The map detailing the State of AQI. Why are there no names just titles?? Some of cheney's secrets.
svh wrote on September 10, 2007 2:50 PM:Well, my kids won't be going into the military; so feel free to keep this insanity up as long as you want.
Here's a prediction- once Bush is out of office, and whatever Democrat goes in office decides to pull the troops, the new story line will be the republicans were winning but we lost only when the Democrats took over.
Get ready for it.
Fred M. wrote on September 10, 2007 2:51 PM:True to the Bush philosophy, the General is trying to justify the surge with "facts" that have nothing to do with the original goal. The surge was supposed to give the Iraqi leadership time to establish a stable government ... not reduce civilian violence.
The fact is the Iraqi government is crumbling and the surge has done nothing to change the underlying social dynamics.
These guys are sacrificing American lives and running our military into ground in order to save face. It is a failed strategy and a bunch of charts reflecting "massaged data" don't change that!
Long Memory wrote on September 10, 2007 2:53 PM:Hey, we're all entitled to our math. But the General and the White House are have THE math.
Fred M. wrote on September 10, 2007 2:58 PM:I hope they ask the General one question, "How long can we continue sending our servicemen and women back for more and more, and longer and longer, tours of duty before the military collapses?
Does he really believe we can continue for five, ten or more years using the same recruitment system we have now? Make him admit that it is going to take a draft to sustain even pre-surge troop levels in Iraq for an extended period of time.
anonymous wrote on September 10, 2007 3:24 PM:"He didn't give comparisons to overall attacks in 2006, but opted instead to measure from discrete points in 2006."
Translation: he cherry-picked; he lied; soldiers died.
anonymous wrote on September 10, 2007 3:26 PM:" . . . it has remained consistent over at least a year . . ."
Well, it is no surprise that they have been lying for the last year and more.
A dishonest methodology last year doesn't translate to an honest one this year.
"Betray-us" is exactly right.
Rodney wrote on September 10, 2007 3:28 PM:What Intelligence Agencies approved this? The Cheney Intelligence Agency and the Central Intelligence of Adddington? Everyone in the Middle East and Europe are aware of the "foreign fighters" and funding for Sunni insurgents that comes from Saudi Arabia, yet Patreaus neglects that from his slides.
Of course, these slides were produced by the Bush team, but there is no way to win a war when the Generals are more concerned with politics than the truth.
anonymous wrote on September 10, 2007 3:30 PM:" two US intelligence agencies signed off on the methodology "
Hmmmmm.
The Office of the Vice President (OVP) and the Secret "Feith" Intelligence Service (SFIS) at the Pentagon that was never discontinued?
Tim wrote on September 10, 2007 3:31 PM:What I find of interest is that the numbers Iraqi civilian deaths (slide 4) don't track with what the independent site icasualties.org have. Not just the exact numbers (which could be debated) but the general trends. It's as if some civilians count and others don't. Look for yourself and see. The use of weekly vs. monthly trend analysis, the disconnect on civilian casualty reports and Patreus' statement that his report has "not been cleared by, or shared with, anyone in the Pentagon, the White House or Congress" when the story this morning was he spent all weekend in the Pentagon 'cleaning up the report' makes me think it's all smoke and mirrors.
Such a shame, as I had great respect for the General.
Willem van Oranje wrote on September 10, 2007 3:47 PM:Two agencies? Aren't there 16 intelligence agencies in the US?
Long Memory wrote on September 10, 2007 3:47 PM:Someone suggested last week that they get Colin Powell's graphics shop to do the audio-visual end of Petraeus' presentation. Looks like the White House took the hint.
JimBob wrote on September 10, 2007 3:50 PM:Maybe this travesty will be what finally smokes Colin Powell out from wherever he's hiding. Is it too late for him to cry bullshit? Is his credibility, even in an angry mea culpa, too shot?
keith wrote on September 10, 2007 3:51 PM:Seems to me that the focus on whether there is improved security is only half the picture. The idea of the escalation/surge was to provide breathing room for the politicians to make headway. According to his number's, there's been some progress on the security front. Which should raise the very obvious question from both dems and repubs: has there been a corresponding improvement in politic reconcillation. If not, then, one could (and I say should) argue that the surge has not worked. There is no reason to believe that another 9 months will provide the time necesary to resolve these Iraqi political issues.
Arguing about the validity of the numbers, in my estimation, is irrelevant at this point. The politicians need to stay focused on the question at hand and not the shiny new mirror....
Long Memory wrote on September 10, 2007 4:11 PM:I had to laugh at the use of the term "lingering sectarian mistrust." What a pathetic joke. Those folks have hated each other for a thousand years. Their idea of getting along is when they allow the people they vanquish to actually walk away with the clothes on their back. They're not generally so collegial.
Lingering sectarian mistrust. Only a misbegotten boob like the President could ever have believed we could put an end to that. Here's a prediction:
In a thousand years, they'll still hate each other. The only people they hate more than each other is ... US.
fluffy wrote on September 10, 2007 4:13 PM:what oranje said.
Jeremy wrote on September 10, 2007 8:52 PM:According to Patreus' numbers, a weapons cache has been siezed in Anbar provence every 2.5 hours (every morning, day, and night) in 2007. Can that be correct?
zk0sm0 wrote on September 11, 2007 12:38 PM:two 'agencies': the office of the vice-president and the office of the president.