TPMmuckraker | Talking Points Memo | Cong. Research Service on the Sunni Insurgency

Cong. Research Service on the Sunni Insurgency

By Spencer Ackerman - September 13, 2007, 1:20PM

Gen. Petraeus downplayed the non-al-Qaeda Sunni insurgency in his testimony and subsequent press appearances. But a report prepared by the Congressional Research Service last week pointed out that al-Qaeda in Iraq is a miniscule fraction of the insurgency. From Kenneth Katzman, the lead Iraq analyst for Congress' independent, nonpartisan research wing, AQI is:

A numerically small but politically significant component is non-Iraqi, mostly in a faction called al-Qaeda Iraq. Increasingly in 2007, U.S. commanders have seemed to equate AQI with the insurgency, even though most of the daily attacks are carried out by Iraqi Sunni insurgents.

Katzman puts AQI's active strength at between 1500 and 3500 fighters. (Terrorism expert Malcolm Nance pegs it at about 1300.) That's compared to about 25,000 Sunni insurgents, according to U.S. estimates, though the Iraqi government puts them at about 40,000, with 150,000 "supporters." AQI certainly punches above its weight class -- Petraeus said it's responsible for today's murder of anti-AQI Sunni shiekh Abdul Sattar Abu Risha, though George Washington University professor Marc Lynch thinks Sunni insurgents may have killed him -- but it's important to remember that the insurgency isn't a monolith under the control of al-Qaeda.

Comments (16)

BlueInTexas wrote on September 13, 2007 1:53 PM:

Do you suppose the recently deceased Shiekh Abdul Sattar Abu Risha is the first person that George W Bush knows that has been killed in Iraq. Do you think GW remembers him? It was back ten days ago.

'Course, GW doesn't remember shaking hands with Abramhoff, so who knows?

jeffgee wrote on September 13, 2007 2:08 PM:

I lost count of how many times Petraeus mentioned al Qaeda in the hearings. It's obviously the drum the White House wants him to beat, especially this week of September 11.

john mccutchen wrote on September 13, 2007 2:38 PM:

He's arming the Baathists in a civil war with the government that WE are dying to defend.

"Small price to pay"

" [Admiral] Fallon told Petraeus that he considered him to be 'an ass-kissing little chickenshit" and added, 'I hate people like that' "

Me too

Butchy Boy wrote on September 13, 2007 2:44 PM:

Here are McCain's thoughts on who we're fighting.."We must never forget this simple fact: The terrorists we face in Iraq today are the same terrorists who struck our homeland six years ago on 9/11."

Surge brings progress to Iraq
By JOHN MCCAIN - Guest columnist
On Monday, Gen. David Petraeus, top commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, delivered his much-anticipated report to Congress on the progress of our new counterinsurgency strategy.

In short, Gen. Petraeus reported that the surge is working. Decreased sectarian violence, a diminished al-Qaida presence, improved cooperation with local tribes and, most importantly, Gen. Petraeus’ acknowledgment that troop levels could be scaled back as early as December all stand as evidence to that fact.

Just one year ago, al-Qaida controlled major portions of the Iraqi countryside and used its position of strength to incite sectarian violence. But now, U.S. forces are pushing al-Qaida out of former strongholds such as Anbar and Diyala.

As stability comes to the region, its impact is clear. The homicide rate in Baghdad has decreased by more than 50 percent. Running water has been restored. Schools, markets and hospitals have all reopened. The signs of progress are on the rise, and al-Qaida’s influence is declining.

In communities where U.S. forces have taken a foothold, the efforts of radicals have been minimized, and pro-democratic leaders are gaining influence. American troops are building coalitions with Sunni tribal leaders. For the first time, we are seeing members of the Sunni Arab community — who were formerly aligned against the forces of freedom — turn on al-Qaida.

While the news coming out of Iraq is increasingly positive, victory is not yet a foregone conclusion. Gen. Petraeus made one point painstakingly clear in his report: Now is not the time for surrender.

The future of Iraq and the greater war against radical Islamic extremism teeters on the decisions Congress will make in the coming days, whether to leave the job unfinished or to give our troops the time and resources they need for success.

I know the American people are frustrated about the situation in Iraq — the mismanagement of this war, the loss of treasure and of blood — and I share their frustration. But the American people have made it clear that they want our troops to return home with honor and in victory.

Now is not the time to surrender.

Now is the time to heed the calls of those who best understand the reality on the ground, and I am confident that no one has a better grasp on the situation in Iraq than Gen. Petraeus.

Gen. Petraeus said our troops need more time to allow the surge to continue to work. If we turn our backs on this new strategy now, we will leave certain chaos in our footsteps. And unlike enemies our nation has previously faced, al-Qaida will follow us home.

We must never forget this simple fact: The terrorists we face in Iraq today are the same terrorists who struck our homeland six years ago on 9/11.

Earlier this week, we launched the No Surrender Tour. It is my sincere hope that you will join former POWs, Medal of Honor recipients, veterans and me in rallying support for our troops and their mission. Together we can send a clear message to Congress that surrender is not an option.

Sen. McCain’s campaign Web site is www.johnmccain.com. This is the first of several candidate columns solicited byThe State on Iraq.

jerri wrote on September 13, 2007 2:58 PM:

So how much did Butcher Boy bet paid for being part of the NO Surrender Tour???

PBen wrote on September 13, 2007 3:04 PM:

Dear President Bush:

Due to circumstances beyond my control, I regret to say that I need to cancel our scheduled lunch tomorrow.
I forgot about a prior appointment I had with my hair dresser, and etc, etc...

Sheik Yerbouti

Rodney Lamprey, jr. wrote on September 13, 2007 3:54 PM:

To be more descriptive, instead "al-Qaeda in Iraq", the foreign fighters in Iraq should be referred to as "Saudi Arabians in Iraq".

jacqueline grant wrote on September 13, 2007 4:45 PM:

Get the truth about Anbar . Rick Rowley traveled unembedded to Anbar , with the support of the Pulitzer foundation ( something like that. )
He met with supposed Sheik Abu Rasha (the guy who died this morning????)a Sunni who ejected the Shites from Anbar. Didnt you know thats why it appears there's progress on the ground because all Shites live in refugee camps.
For the truth you won't hear from Bush got to
BIGNOISEFILMS.COM FOR THE TRUTH ABOUT ANBAR.