Earlier today I guessed that a potential prosecution of Blackwater by the Iraqi government would cause a panic from other security contractors fearing a similar fate. But a leading expert on private military companies says I'm underestimating the allure of the financial score.

Peter W. Singer of the Brookings Institution has done pioneering work on the emerging role of private security, going back to his landmark 2003 book Corporate Warriors. Singer says that even in the unlikely event that Iraq prosecutes Blackwater, its rivals will look to take over its multi-million contract with the State Department rather than look to the next flight out of Baghdad (the contracts since 2003 have been worth approximately $678 million). "People are going to weigh risks differently," he says. "Just like [security firms] ask 'is moving a convoy worth the risk to life and limb?', they'll ask 'is making a certain amount of money worth it?' It'll be another weighting factor if there are prosecutions. Some will accept it, and some will say it's not worth ending up in an Iraqi jail."

If anything, Blackwater's rivals were angered not so much by the Iraqis' threatened expulsion of Blackwater, but by the Maliki government's flip-flopping on the issue, said Singer. "This was a business opportunity that opened up for them and then very quickly closed off. Blackwater has lots of competitors, and they didn't get a slice of the pie," Singer adds. "But if they are prosecuted, then yes, it's going to cause a lot of wringing of hands in the contractor corps, particularly among non-Iraqi nationals, and especially among western companies, including those from the U.S. 'Am I now going to potentially be prosecuted by an Iraqi kangaroo court?'"

With the Maliki government incensed over the Nisour Square shootings and the State Department attempting to simultaneously protect Blackwater and mollify the Iraqis, Singer observes that the long-simmering feud over security contracting has thrown the U.S. off its diplomatic game. Instead of pressuring Maliki on passing benchmark legislation, the U.S. is trying to appease the prime minister over the security company's continued role in Iraq, post-shooting. "We're damned if we do and damned if we don't," he says. "That's the corner we're painted into by outsourcing first and not even bothering to ask questions later."