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Today's Must Read
Who murdered Benazir Bhutto? U.S. authorities don't know. They may never know. And they're not ruling anything in or out.
To recap our debate yesterday, the first-blush assessment from most experts held that al-Qaeda is responsible. Others, including political adversaries of Pervez Musharraf, then suggested Musharraf's government was at least culpable, given the porousness of security Bhutto received in the garrison city of Rawalpindi where she was assassinated. Still others caution that Pakistani Islamic terrorist groups with agendas distinct from al-Qaeda's might be more likely candidates.
That appears to still be the lay of the land. Bhutto's party, the Pakistan People's Party, is demanding an official inquiry, though it's unclear (to me at least) whether Musharraf has agreed to one. But here's one development to watch in the event of a probe. In the Los Angeles Times, Josh Meyer reports that Pakistan hasn't yet replied to U.S. investigators who've offered to help.
Some U.S. intelligence experts and analysts said that there are so many tangled alliances between the extremist groups and Pakistani government agencies that it would be virtually impossible to get to the bottom of who killed Bhutto unless the perpetrators came forward -- with proof. The FBI has offered to send investigators, but Pakistan has not responded, FBI spokesman Richard Kolko said.
Maybe it's a sovereignty question for Pakistan. But without some kind of outside assistance in an inquiry, Musharraf's government will be investigating itself. Few in or outside of Pakistan will be satisfied with that. An ex-U.S. intelligence official with deep Pakistan experience told me yesterday that it's unlikely anyone in Pakistan doesn't already believe Musharraf had something to do with the slaying.
And that's not something that U.S. intelligence officials are ruling out, either. al-Qaeda tends not to shoot people at close range, or pull off decoy suicide bombings. Eli Lake of the New York Sun reports that U.S. intelligence officials want to make sure they know where all of Pakistan's special-forces units were at the time of Bhutto's assassination.
American and Pakistani military leaders are seeking to account for what may be renegade commando units from the Pakistani military's special forces in the wake of the assassination of Pakistan's opposition leader and former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto. ...A working theory, according to this American source, is that Al Qaeda or affiliated jihadist groups had effectively suborned at least one unit of Pakistan's Special Services Group, the country's equivalent of Britain's elite SAS commandos. This official, however, stressed this was just a theory at this point. Other theories include that the assassins were trained by Qaeda or were from other military services, or the possibility that the assassins were retired Pakistani special forces.
"They just killed the most protected politician in the whole country," this source said. "We really don't know a lot at this point, but the first thing that is happening is we are asking the Pakistani military to account for every black team with special operations capabilities."
One thing is clear. No one should expect closure on Bhutto's murder. After all, it's up to Musharraf to determine whether clarity is or isn't in his interest.
Comments (26)
EdNSted wrote on December 28, 2007 9:18 AM:I think coming at this the other way might be more productive.
1. Who benefits the most from Bhutto's assasination?
2. Who had the access to pull this off?
PeeJ wrote on December 28, 2007 9:26 AM:What would be wrong with Musharraf's government investigating itself? That's the way the Bush administration and the DOJ do it? Do you think maybe Pakistan has a Congress for oversight? Maybe their equivalent to our Representative Waxman could send them a letter. That's the way we do it in the good old USA!
Peace!
Phlop wrote on December 28, 2007 10:01 AM:A BBC report says that this hit has Al Qaeda training all over it. And they have already claimed responsibility. Of course they have ... Doesn't theorizing about Islamic extremist links to the Pakistani government create a very dangerous situation considering Pakistan is a nuclear power?
JJHunsecker wrote on December 28, 2007 10:25 AM:Unfortunately, the more I read about Pakistan, the more I understand that it is not a real country. Iraq's borders were some kind of colonialist dream, and Pakistan is the wornout dream of those who wanted a "pure" homeland for the Muslims of the subcontinent. But words keep showing up in the news reports that describe a country that isn't a country: Feudal elite, garrison city of Rawalpindi, influence of the army, roving bands of militants along the uncontrolled borders. And the neo-cons, in their infinite wisdom, think of this place as a "frontline state in the war on terrorism" (to quote some babbling reporter from NPR's pitiable coverage of this morning). Oh, and the Bush administration isn't all that concerned that this noncountry has nuclear weapons. Happy New Year.
No dice wrote on December 28, 2007 10:44 AM:Raw Story reports in an e-mail sent to a confidant in the US two months ago, assassinated Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto said she would hold the country's current leader Pervez Musharraf "responsible" because his government did not do enough to provide for her security.
"I wld [sic] hold Musharaf [sic] responsible," Bhutto wrote to her US spokesman, Mark Siegel, in the October e-mail, which was reported Thursday afternoon by CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "I have been made to feel insecure by his minions, and there is no way what is happening in terms of stopping me from taking private cars or using tinted windows or giving jammers or four police mobiles to cover all sides cld [sic] happen without him."
Blitzer told viewers he received the e-mail soon after it was sent two months ago, but he agreed not to report on it unless Bhutto was assassinated. "It's a story I was asked to report to the world in -- if Bhutto were killed," he said.
For more on the story check out:
http://rawstory.com/news/2007/In_October_email_Bhutto_said_her_1227.html
JazzyD wrote on December 28, 2007 10:49 AM:The BBC reporter Owen Bennett Jones wrote what I think is the best history of Pakistan leading to the current crisis. He argued that the former Yugoslavia was the best model for thinking about Pakistan -- a confederation of states each of which has its own national aspirations with the totality held together by one of the states holding the military power. As in Yugoslavia, this kind of arrangement can generate a great deal of centrifugal energy. We might be seeing that accelerate now.
Michael wrote on December 28, 2007 10:51 AM:When you're a suicide bomber carrying around a heavy pack of explosives, it's kinda tough to keep up with a moving phalanx of vans and security vehicles, waiting for the precise moment to penetrate layers of security, get right up to the vehicle carrying Bhutto standing up and waving to the crowd through the sunroof, and shoot her, then detonate your bomb.
moe99 wrote on December 28, 2007 10:58 AM:I've not seen in any of today's coverage the unlikely random probability that the individual carrying out this act was, as if by pure chance, in exactly the right place at exactly the right time.
My question: Did anyone know in advance the time and location that Bhutto would stand up in her van and wave to the crowd through the sunroof? If there was any pre-planning on this, somebody gave out the word.
I'm going with the military are to blame theory. As mentioned above, Rawalapindi is a garrison town, which means no one sneezes unless the military approves it in advance.
bp wrote on December 28, 2007 10:59 AM:One thing not mentioned is that Bhutto was Shiite, a fact she tried to play down, as Pakistan is mainly Sunni.
After seven years of accountability by our government and its record of carrying out investigations I blushed with shame when I read that American investigators should be sent to help. Don't we need them here? It is up to Pakistan to investigate this business and to pay the price in its relations with the rest of the world once it provides the results. If that means Musharraf must investigate himself and his cohorts so be it. Pakistan has been a bssket case for so long that I have given up on that sad country. If anyone should be concerned it must be neighbouring India. Yet you don't hear the drivel about investigations from them. We are always so good at thinking that we have the moral high ground on every issue. Delusional!
Mitch wrote on December 28, 2007 11:03 AM:The same person(s) who killed the Kennedy's. "When after all…"
Winston Smith wrote on December 28, 2007 11:10 AM:We have always been at war with Oceania.
We killed Bhutto. We had to, or else we'd lose complete control of Pakistan and the ability to remain in a state of permanent war with "Al Qaeda." Are you still laboring under the illusion that we didn't see 9/11 coming? Haven't you ever wondered why the greatest military power on earth can't seem to find a tall, ill Arab on dialysis who lives in caves?
steve duncan wrote on December 28, 2007 11:25 AM:Please.
I can't imagine the imprimatur of U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies in a murder investigation would go a long way in assuring citizens of ANY nation impartiality, honesty or professionalism had been brought to bear.
za wrote on December 28, 2007 11:29 AM:You're kidding , right?
You seem SO surprised that the Pakistan gov't wouldn't let OUR FBI into their investigation of an assassination of one of THEIR leaders?
Turn it around. If George W. Bush were assassinated today, would the U.S. let ANY other country send their police over to "help" with the investigation?????
American Arrogance TM has seeped into TPM, even.
pastor agnostic wrote on December 28, 2007 11:32 AM:hey, our Kennedy commission, 9/11 commission, and the State investigations into Halliburton, KKR, and Blackwater have all been spectacular. Surely Pakistan can do at least as well on the Bhutto "accident".
za wrote on December 28, 2007 11:33 AM:Musharraf is screwed no matter WHO pulled it off.
1. Al Qaeda did it? Then the President of Pakistan couldn't keep Islamists from assassinating one of their own political leaders. One who had been attacked only months before.
2. Musharraf "allowed" it to happen? See #1.
3. Musharraf did it. Then a sitting president assassinated a political rival, in order to stop a plan of shared power.
4. Pakistani militants did it? Then, Musharraf is probably next.
Odd bedfellows wrote on December 28, 2007 11:42 AM:Why are the State Dept, the President, and Sen Clinton all pushing for no disruption in the scheduled election?
ProDemocrat wrote on December 28, 2007 11:48 AM:It seems to me, and I realize that conspiracy theories are not necessarily in "vogue" on any given day, the Bush/Cheney Republican Fascist Dictatorship has more to gain than anyone from Bhutto's assassination. In order to be effective dictatorships require hefty doses of FEAR, CHAOS, and mistrust among the general population to stay in power. With the so called "surge" working in Iraq (violence and deaths have diminished somewhat), the Republican Regime needed another front to scare the hell out of the American people and to focus the electorate on "who can protect you best". Pakistan seems to be that front due to its political instability and the fact that they REALLY DO have nuclear weapons. Knocking off Bhutto was an effective way to create that "fear and chaos" dictatorships thrive on - not only in Pakistan, but also in the United States.
cynical Jim wrote on December 28, 2007 12:39 PM:Forget the imminent collapse of the American economy - Forget Immigration - Forget the free fall of the dollar on the world financial markets - the Fascist Repub's can focus the public's attention once again to "who can protect you the best!"
If the MSM goes along (and we know they will) the debate will change. And if Rudy Guilliani (Mr. 911) begins to rise in the polls we may have a pretty good idea what happened. And what about Pakistan and Musharaff? Who cares about a bunch of little brown people...things like that haven't stopped the Bush/Cheney Regime before!
It doesn't matter who killed Benazir Bhutto. What matters is that bush/cheney & Co. don't have a contingency plan in case something like this happened.
Wow. No one could have planned that in a crazy land like Pakistan that the primary opposition leader, who Little Georgie believed would solve all his problems with Musharraf, would be assinated.
I don't wish to dishonor the dead. But, the fact that our Foreign Policy regarding Pakistan is now in a shambles because Bhutto is dead is obscene in the display of incomprehensible incompetence.
Can we impeach them NOW?
Liam wrote on December 28, 2007 12:49 PM:Pakistan is the same today as it was when Mushareff took over in a Military Coup. Nothing has changed. I doubt that Ms. Bhutto was going to make much of a difference, if she had won a third term as Prime Minister. She was totally ineffective during her previous two turns in office.
The fact that she was a Shiite in a mostly Sunni male dominated country, would not make her task any easier.
Ms.Bhutto was very reckless. She came close to being killed in an attack right after she returned, yet she still continued to make high risk appearances. She should not have stood up through the sunroof. That was extremely reckless, since she knew that she was a target. I am very sorry that she was killed, but it is hard to protect someone from their own reckless behavior.
If even the Popes have learned to stay protected in their bullet proof vehicles, then she should have done the same. It does your followers no good, to let them see you, if you are not going to survive to carry on.
RIP.
nrglaw wrote on December 28, 2007 1:18 PM:When was the last time you heard a report of a suicide bomber FIRST taking time to shoot a specific target and THEN blowing himself up and killing twenty individuals?
Doesn't happen. And it didn't happen here, in my opinion.
TheraP wrote on December 28, 2007 1:25 PM:No pipeline to the truth here. But it seems very feasible that there could have been a confluence of interests that together, through overt or covert action as well as inaction may have contributed to her ultimate death.
But consider this. Regardless of who did it, what may be more important for future events is "who is perceived to have done this" - and how that plays out.
With Mushareff polling in the single digits, seems to me the most likely scapegoat here will be him. And maybe that extends to the military (dictatorship) as well. Once something like that is subscribed to on the Arab street, it seems to me it would be difficult to dislodge.
Next, if that becomes a belief among the common people, coupled with a view of Bhutto as a martyr.... where does that lead?
Again, I'm no expert, but those are the kind of questions I think we need to be posing.
DickTater wrote on December 28, 2007 1:35 PM:Regardless of who did it, LeChimp and TheCheney will make hay out of it.
There is NOTHING that they are not trying to twist into "Bad Folks, Terrrrrsts, Evil-Doers" trying to hurt us amrrrrrrkins.
Regardless of who did it, ALQ will be blamed, extremists, islamists until TheCheney and Co decide which is the best, most plausible line to run with. Of course they will try to shape the narrative, but whatever it is they will twist it to a fear-based ploy.
BlueTickHowl wrote on December 28, 2007 4:39 PM:Let's say it's true that she wasn't shot or hit with shrapnel and that her death really was the result of her hitting her head on the handle of the sunroof door...
What if this was an "attempted assasination" gone wrong? Something she was supposed to survive -- the end result being the galvanizing of the people's support behind her to ensure an election victory?
Same thing could possibly be said for the bombing that occurred when she first arrived in Pakistan not so long ago...
ARiera wrote on December 28, 2007 7:12 PM:In regard to ProDemocrat comments above, I do agree with his point of view about the Cheney/Bush cabal. They will try to get a lot of mileage out of Ms Bhutto assassination, to start again with their fear mongering tatics. And only they (the repubs) can keep us safe. I am so sick and tire of having this bunch of incompetents - greedy - self serving individuals, trying to keep me safe, or anybody else for that matter. What a bunch of hypocrites the whole of them. They all are up to their eyeballs involve in this situation. And pay attention how it develops via the MSM.
Disgusting, what has happened to Our Country, taken over by a bunch of thugs.
Dee Illuminati wrote on December 28, 2007 8:18 PM:Some U.S. intelligence experts and analysts said that there are so many tangled alliances between the extremist groups and Pakistani government agencies that it would be virtually impossible to get to the bottom of who killed Bhutto unless the perpetrators came forward -- with proof. The FBI has offered to send investigators, but Pakistan has not responded, FBI spokesman Richard Kolko said.
LOL!!!
Even in Pakistan there is a hesitancy to look under some rocks!
Next thing ya know, Paul Redmond will resign!
LOL!!
I would imagine that there was a shot to the neck, she was wearing a bullet proof vest, that the explosion was a diversion.
I can imagine her husband getting a call before and after and her children being threatened, he caved...
Classic...
Noah wrote on December 29, 2007 8:05 AM:What a load of codswallup. Everyone seems to have forgotten that this assasination has taken place for a reason. Keep Musharraf in power. keep Pakistan destabilised and in a state of disarray, protect your own back by keeping the campfires burning whilst you loot the assets of nations next door. Just who wants to pick a fight with the greatest mountain fighters in this world?? AlQaeida/Taliban?? The US, no unless you call it a fight from 30,000.00 feet above earth dropping the lollipops over mountainous terrain without sighting any enemy or enemy movements. Come'on people, yes the Pakis are bloody "barbaric". Yes they should not have interceded from India in 1947, yes they are still living in a feudal landscape where might is right and no amount of religion or religious persuasion or so-called American led democratic reform movements with the barrel of the gun can surmount the already millions of years of cultivate lifestyles, barbnaric systems of power sharing and above all their political mastery over the country.
Take away all your blood stained weapons Condi. I'd like to see what make of weapon was fired at Bhutto and the factory which manufactured the bullet. Also who in the ISI and other agencies of Musharaff's elite cadre of genocidal maniacs was given the task of pulling the trigger.
I believe that Pakistan is headed for total disaster and will break up into cantonments unless a Leader rises from the ashes of this latest bloody tragedy. Can Captain Imran do the job???
Here's your free pass to Office mate!