IMO, the 'big speech' idea seems odd - at first blush. Is he trying to win the swing-state of Germany? Who's he campaigning to? Well, obviously us. So, what's the point of doing a big speech there?

There must be a strategy involved here. What is it? I think that will be revealed in the content of his speech, which is the big missing piece to all of this. My prediction is that he's about to make an important foreign policy speech of some substance, which will solidify his foreign policy cred - especially when Americans see throngs of foreigners cheering his remarks. It may be less than that - maybe just a big fluffy speech about partnership and rebuilding the alliance between the U.S. and Europe. But, knowing Obama's oratorical skills, he'll still have the crowd eating out of his hand, which cannot be seen as a bad thing.

Posted at July 18, 2008 5:15 PM in response to Report: Obama Will Speak At Victory Column, Not Brandenburg Gate

There is another site with a more detailed analysis (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) but yes, it keeps getting bluer.

Who knew singing the blues was so much fun?

Posted at July 18, 2008 4:42 PM in response to The Big Picture: Obama, Dems Likely To Vastly Outpace Republicans In Fundraising

Any names in mind?

I'm thinking "Bush Bowl" or "Can O' Bush", or, something more formal, like "George W. Bush Public Recreation Area".

BTW, I'm in S.F., and although naming a sewage plant after Bush gives sewage plants a bad name I'll still support the measure. (Sorry Justin, I can't help myself.)

Posted at July 18, 2008 4:22 PM in response to Election Central Morning Roundup

I think McCain is getting more traction in casting the themes for the election.

Obama seems only to be working the McCain = Bush theme, despite so many opportunities to work in other powerful themes, such as "McCain the Flip-flopper", and "McCain = rich, elitist, and out of touch with mainstream America."

Meanwhile, McCain's team continues to push on all fronts, throwing anything that will stick and even things that don't. They're being relentless (and shameless) in their pursuit of casting Obama as unamerican, elitists, a flip-flopper, etc.

Playing defense, or playing to run out the clock won't work. Team Obama needs to remain on offense, pushing the themes they want out there, not just defending Obama against McCain's attacks.

Like I said yesterday, the 'Dr. Phill' line was a good ha-ha moment, but where did Obama tie it all into a theme? Obama needs to harp on Gramm and anything else related to the McCain campaign that smacks of being out-of-touch and elitist.

The media loves McCain and they won't do it for Obama. So team Obama must aggressively send out the surrogates and have them say it on the media outlets. Force the bobble-heads to talk about the issue - even if it is in defense of McCain, it doesn't matter, just get the bobble-heads to address the topic until the conversation takes on a life of its own. That's how it's done, but the Obama camp isn't doing it.

Posted at July 11, 2008 2:28 PM in response to Election Central Morning Roundup

Hope so. Graham is becoming a major gift to the Obama camp, with his connections to the housing crisis, being McCain's top economic advisor, his comments and others by McCain that signal their out-of-touchness, and both being incredibly wealthy - this is an opportunity to turn the elitist theme the other direction. Elite, out of touch, and corporate greed are the themes to link to McCain. McCain = Bush is also good... the two themes work well together. But they must start hammering hard now. After the conventions is too late. They must shine the spotlight each time McCain and his surrogates do something that fits the theme:

"See! There it is folks, McCain and his wealthy elite Bush friends think the recession isn't real. They don't feel your pain. They call us wimps. But what do they know? They don't know what it's like worry what gas prices will do to their household budgets, they don't worry about their mortgages, or about losing their jobs. Well, maybe it's time to make them worry about their jobs! Let's put 'em in touch with what real Americans like us deal with every day!"

Something like that.

Posted at July 10, 2008 10:33 PM in response to McCain Adviser: We're Outspending Obama Three-To-One On TV Ads

There's two schools of thought - one is that voters' perceptions/preferences get set early and likely won't change, the other is that people aren't really paying attention at this point and it's better to save up the ads/cash until later in the game. I don't know where I stand on this - I can see pros and cons with each.

I think it is a little of both, and so, to ignore anything at this point it a mistake. Think about this: Kerry slam-dunked most of the debates with Bush. And yet, the poll numbers remained absolutely unchanged. People made up their minds by September/October. The game was lost when the Republicans successfully determined the themes of the campaign, which were established in people's minds throughout the summer (Kerry: flip-flopper, Bush: keeps us safe - don't change horses in the middle of the stream).

One must relentlessly attack in order to establish a winning narrative and not let your opponent's themes take hold. Like Nixon claiming he wasn't a crook... being on defense doesn't work; that's dancing to the opposition's narrative. One must be ahead of the competition in placing ideas in people's minds about what the campaign is about, what the differences are between the candidates, and to a large degree, who the candidates are/represent.

The Dr. Phill thing is cute, but it seems the Obama camp hasn't linked it to a specific narrative. It is a temporary campaign moment which will carry no weight unless it is effectively linked to a core narrative in a clear and recognizable way. We already know that one theme is that McCain = Bush's 3rd term. But that narrative doesn't link smoothly here. The opportunity is being missed to create a more powerful narrative given the economic hardships that Americans are facing: that McCain and the Republicans are wealthy elitists who're out of touch with the common Jane and Joe (or something like that).

In any case, I point this out because it concerns me that the Obama camp is missing the opportunity to set the narrative - and the lack of advertising is just a symptom of this much larger issue. I don't know if they're just distracted by a perceived need to unify the party, or that building state organizations has become such a priority that they're taking the eye off the other balls that still need to be juggled. I don't know, but the absence of an aggressive campaign to establish narrative-dominance has me concerned.

Posted at July 10, 2008 5:50 PM in response to McCain Adviser: We're Outspending Obama Three-To-One On TV Ads

Drats! Bad timing: cannot attend the S.F. gig. Instead, I have made a donation in honor of the event. Next, I will drink a beer in honor of the event. I think that covers all the bases, or have I missed anything?

Posted at July 10, 2008 4:22 PM in response to Time to Make a Difference - July 19

Post-primary season bump beginning to taper off?

Posted at June 29, 2008 12:31 AM in response to Poll: Tight Race In Ohio

I'm from San Francisco, so I think I should have a say in the naming. PBSPP is OK, but doesn't roll off the tongue. How about: Bush Reclamation Plant (BRP - pronounced "burp")? I was also considering something that includes Cheney, like Bush-Cheney Refined Aquatic Processing, or B-CRAP for short.

Posted at June 25, 2008 4:37 PM in response to Election Central Morning Roundup

Yes, thanks.

Posted at June 25, 2008 4:10 PM in response to Election Central Morning Roundup