But they weren't pressuring anyone to fire Wooten. Just politely passing along information...

Posted at September 4, 2008 6:32 PM in response to New Complaint Against Palin on Trooper-Gate

Does anyone know what books Palin wanted to ban?

No one - from what I've read - seems to know. Might be a job for TPM Muckraker.

Posted at September 2, 2008 3:53 PM in response to Palin Church Speech Shows Intertwining Of Politics And Religion

NC Steve,

The 26% exit poll is not accurate. The state BOE has the exact data on the turnout numbers.Tom Jensen of PPP polling looked into the 26% number and found the truth:
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/05/erroneous-exit-poll.html

But I do believe that we could see a 20% increase of AA voters and a similar increase in young voters.

Posted at August 13, 2008 12:59 PM in response to Poll: Obama Keeping It Close In North Carolina

26% is an exit poll. But you can get the actual number of AA voters who voted in an election right from the raw board of election data (rather than a poll).

Tom Jensen of PPP polling did this because people kept bring up the 26% number and found the truth:
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/05/erroneous-exit-poll.html

26% also doesn't pass the smell test. AA's make up about 20% of the registration roll in NC and 20% of the population. I don't know of ANY state in the south where AA's make up a greater share of voter turnout than their population numbers.

I know kos has been throwing out the 26% exit poll but it's just wrong.

Posted at August 13, 2008 12:48 PM in response to Poll: Obama Keeping It Close In North Carolina

SUSA has the African-American vote as 19% of this poll. Which is just about exactly what the turnout was in the 2004 election.

If Obama is to win in NC, it's going to be all about a dramatic increase in AA turnout. A 25% increase is probably what he needs to win.

Registration rates for young voters is also astonishingly high this year - if they actually turnout for Obama then that perhaps a 15% increase in AA voters would combine for an Obama victory.

Posted at August 13, 2008 11:10 AM in response to Poll: Obama Keeping It Close In North Carolina

One of the headline stories at cnn.com under the politics section yesterday was titled "Obama's uphill polling battle"

When you read the article the first paragraph is:

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The race between Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama is extremely tight, according to the latest CNN "Poll of Polls." Just five points separate the two candidates -- Obama's 48 percent to McCain's 43 percent, with 9 percent undecided. http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/06/obama.polls/index.html

I guess the point of the article is this meme that Obama is underperforming and that a Democrat should be destroying a Republican this year. But how exactly do you say OBAMA has an uphill polling battle when he's consistently leading all polls and leading in the important electoral state polls in places like Colorado, Ohio, Michigan, Virgina, Iowa. This is the same lazy reporting that generates articles with the theme that Obama has a problem with Hispanic and women voters even while noting that he has 2:1 leads in the polls with these groups.

I have been reluctant to buy into the idea that the media is working over time to try to make this election appear to be closer than it is to benefit their ratings and their coverage, but I'm starting to think that maybe there is something to it. I'm not saying Obama is a lock to win, I'm just saying you have to be smoking crack to write that Obama currently has the uphill polling battle. McCain has to start taking the lead in VA, OH, CO, IA, NH, NM. The polling, and electoral map, are a bigger uphill battle for McCain and any objective report would note that.

Posted at August 8, 2008 10:38 AM in response to New York Times Falsely Says Obama Is "Struggling To Maintain Parity" In Polls With McCain

Old media moves slow...but I'm happy to clap when they get there.

Posted at July 30, 2008 9:56 AM in response to Big News Orgs Start Declaring McCain's Troop Visit Attack False

26% is not accurate and is based on census exit polls rather than actual voter turnout data. In NC you can get the exact number because voter registration records are public info and include voting history and ethnicity.

The actual AA turnout in a general election is much closer to 20% (actually I believe it was even below 20% in the '04 election).

Posted at July 29, 2008 12:01 PM in response to Another Poll Shows Very Close Race In North Carolina

Regarding turnout and registration numbers in NC, consider this from a Republican blogger at the NC GOP official website:

With a prolonged primary process surrounded by media hype and exposure, Democrat registrations have skyrocketed across the country. In North Carolina, since the first of the year, Democrat registration has risen by 4.6% overall with 121,802 newly registered voters. Independent voters have increased by 5.7% with 71,599. Meanwhile over that same period, Republican registration in N.C. has only increased by 0.6% or 12,947 voters. I am not trying to paint a rosy picture. I am telling you the truth and the numbers don’t lie. http://ncgop.blogspot.com/2008/06/voter-reg-name-of-game.html

I don't know how or if pollsters can account for the fact that Dem regisration is way up while GOP is almost non-existent. It could be a huge factor if this trend continues.

Posted at July 17, 2008 3:40 PM in response to Poll: Obama Might Have Shot At Flipping North Carolina

What people should keep in mind is that when you look at most pollsters crosstabs they are keeping the turnout models fairly consistent with past turnout history. I just can't imagine that AA turnout will be at the same rate as it ahs in the past. But the question is how much will it grow? 10% increase in NC would add just under 2% to Obama's total share of the vote. 20% increase means an additional 4%. All the recent NC polls suggest this race is 5% or closer, so we can see what AA turnout will mean come November.

The other thing to jeep in mind is that young voters in NC vote below the national average and they could also swing the election in NC if there is a significant increase in their rates.

Posted at July 17, 2008 2:17 PM in response to Poll: Obama Might Have Shot At Flipping North Carolina