. . . an undigested list of polls with errors doesn’t say much about your statistical acumen . . .

** . . . let’s do some real (modeled) Electoral College vote projections **

Projected winner: Obama takes all with at least 304/538 on 9/29/2008

Ignorance is no excuse. Stop hyperventilating Dems. Stop bloviating GOP. These are numbers McCain and Obama know about, so should you.

National polls are meaningless. Only state polls matter -- but not beyond 50%+1 vote. In a Presidential election, only votes in the Electoral College count.

Estimates of Electoral College votes don’t show the kind of dramatic swings that make for breathless faux news. What to do? Go to these sites. They show outcomes from statistical models. If the election were held today, Obama would win.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com where on 9/29/2008: estimated 325 electoral votes for Obama.

http://election.princeton.edu/history-of-electoral-votes-for-obama/ where on 9/29/2008: estimated 304 electoral votes for Obama. (Obama declared winner-of-the-day ever since mid-June.)

Posted at September 29, 2008 1:30 PM in response to Obama Still Way Ahead In Post-Debate Polling

** . . . let’s do some real (modeled) election stats **

Projected winner: Obama takes all with at least 293/538 on 9/26/2008

Ignorance is no excuse. Stop hyperventilating Dems. Stop bloviating GOP. These are numbers McCain and Obama know about, so should you.

Polls from a single source are too biased. National polls are meaningless. Only state polls matter -- but not beyond 50%+1 vote. In a Presidential election, only votes in the Electoral College count.

Estimates of Electoral College votes just don’t show the kind of dramatic swings that make for breathless faux news. What to do? Go to these sites. They show outcomes from statistical models. If the election were held today, Obama would win.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com where on 9/26/2008: estimated 308 electoral votes for Obama.

http://election.princeton.edu/history-of-electoral-votes-for-obama/ where on 9/26/2008: estimated 293 electoral votes for Obama. (Obama declared winner-of-the-day ever since mid-June.)

Posted at September 26, 2008 2:02 PM in response to Breaking: McCain To Attend Debate

* John McBush won't surrender South Iraqi-Nam to North Iran's Sunni gooks **

Dear John, the Navy declared you mentally fit in 1999, but PTSD wasn't a big deal to them then, or now.

Twenty percent of youthful service members returning from Iraq suffer PTSD. None has endured what you endured. Five years in a North Vietnamese prison cell subjected to disabling tortures, it also must have created still festering psychological wounds.

Little yellow men in black pajamas. Those "gooks" haunt you don't they John? An interview with Tim Russert becomes a Hanoi Hilton interrogation. Beach Boys' tunes pop up in your head singing 'Barbara Ann' as 'Bomb Iran.' No one can presume to question your authority on military issues. Can they John? You know-it-all. Your hair-trigger smart ass replies, your well-documented temper tantrums, your mood swings.

Perpetual war. Viet Nam never ends does it, John? Kill the gooks! Bomb Hanoi! Never surrender! There's light at the end of the tunnel. America love it, or leave it. Cambodia's next. Forty years drop away like napalm, don't they John? For you, it's still 1968.

But it's 2008 in Iraq. And, blind militarism is all you know. Iran's next, right Sideshow John? We're forced to share your disgusting atavistic delusions for 5 more months. John, on the tube you exhibit that befogged glaze of incomprehension, just like Ronnie when robotic charm failed him.

Your clouded memory, your non-rational irritability, and unwavering bellicosity are a mental health disqualification for high executive office.

bipolar2
© 2008

Posted at June 24, 2008 6:16 PM in response to WaPo's Richard Cohen: McCain's Flip-Flops Matter Less Than Obama's Because McCain Was POW